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With the rebound of the epidemic in many places and the tightening of relevant epidemic prevention measures, China's service industry returned to its contraction after three months of expansion in September.
September Caixin China General Service Industry Operations Index (Service Industry PMI) released on October 8 recorded 49.3, down 5.7 percentage points from August, and fell below the boom and bust line for the first time since June.
Previously announced that Caixin China's manufacturing PMI fell by 1.4 percentage points to 48.1 in September, the same as May, and the same low in the past five months. The two major industries, PMI, fell, dragging down Caixin China's comprehensive PMI slowed by 4.5 percentage points to 48.5, the first time since June that it fell to the contraction range.
Judging from the sub-item data, the service industry operating activity index and new order index fell to varying degrees in September, both of which fell to the contraction range for the first time since June. shows that both supply and demand are weak . The companies interviewed generally stated that due to epidemics and silent control measures such as prevention and control, the service industry has been restricted and demand has weakened.
The current epidemic situation is still severe and complex, and the negative impact of epidemic control measures on the economy is still significant. Since September, the epidemic has made a comeback in many places, and the number of confirmed cases in some key areas has increased significantly compared with August. The supply and demand of the service industry has declined at the same time, dragging down employment and accelerating contraction, resulting in the backlog of the service industry's business volume index being higher than the critical point for the second consecutive month.
Compared with the decline in China's service industry PMI affected by the epidemic, the September manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics rose by 0.7 percentage points to 50.1, and returned to the line two months later, at the mid-low level since 2013; it rose by 0.7 percentage points from August, and the upward range far exceeds the average level of the same period in the past five years.
In fact, September was the traditional peak season for manufacturing, and . This year's significant recovery is related to the rebound in power generation . The special action to ensure power supply in September came to an end. As of September 20, the national railway sent a total of 410 million tons of electric coal, an increase of 32.1% year-on-year; 363 railway direct power plants nationwide stored 63.33 million tons of coal, an increase of 104.6% year-on-year. It effectively guarantees the coal demand for thermal power and industrial production.
September 29, the central bank , the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission phased adjustments to differentiated housing credit policies - For cities where the sales prices of newly built commercial housing have declined month-on-month and year-on-year in June-August 2022, the lower limit of the first housing commercial personal housing loan interest rate will be phased before the end of 2022. The growth rate of commercial housing sales area in the fourth quarter may bottom out and rebound.
The recovery of social financing growth will be transmitted to the recovery of manufacturing industry. is expected to continue to maintain a steady recovery trend in the fourth quarter . This is mainly because we believe that there will be some room for relaxation in monetary policy and support the demand of the manufacturing industry by stimulating the recovery of the commercial housing market.
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