Under the major changes in the global economy , many entrepreneurs are talking about uncertainty about the future. As an outsider investor, you should have a more time-travel vision.
What kind of enterprise can survive through cycles? From December 10th to 11th, the 2022 China Enterprise Leaders Annual Meeting and the 22nd China Enterprise Future Star Annual Meeting were held. Many investment experts sat together and shared from the perspective of investors.
"Computing Technology" in the future
Mingshi Capital has been paying more attention to technology innovation since its establishment. Huang Mingming, founding partner of Mingshi Capital, believes that what is extremely certain in the next 5 to 10 years is the continuous improvement of computing power and the continuous optimization of algorithms by artificial intelligence technology.
"Today, robotic hands and robotic arm are already very common in factory automation production lines. The robot that can be redefined by software, the technology stack behind it is the autopilot of the car and many artificial intelligence algorithms superimposed." Huang Mingming believes that in the future, what we are facing is a new intelligence that is superimposed by computing power algorithm, which is a thousand times, or even ten thousand times, that is today.
"Computers have its learning ability, and their processing ability is likely to surpass the processing ability of the human brain in the next ten years. Such a future is extremely exciting and exciting." Huang Mingming said.
It is worth noting that Huang Mingming said that in recent years, many people have turned to the track of technological innovation, including the "bottleneck" field, and are used as domestic substitution.
"Mingshi doesn't like the kind of projects that are purely domestic substitution." Huang Mingming believes that domestic substitution is not just a product with a lower technology and lower cost than others. Domestic substitution should have a global vision. Entrepreneurs who do domestic substitution projects should have a higher vision and pattern. The goal from the beginning should be to become a world-class technology enterprise, rely on product technology to stabilize the Chinese market and go global.
Huang Mingming believes that the only company that can travel through the cycle must be technological innovation. "Looking at the history of human beings, whether it is through the extremely dark medieval period of Europe through Renaissance , or modern development, it must be technological innovation to promote human society, travel through mystery, cycle, and move towards a bright future."
"The energy structure in ten years will definitely have earth-shaking changes compared with the current energy structure. Eighty or ninety percent of cars, including many other power units, must be from traditional fossil energy to emerging energy and renewable energy, which brings incredible opportunities. Whoever can break through these continuous innovations and challenges in technology and find its own connection point in the industry must be the enterprise that will generate the greatest value in the future." Huang Mingming said.
solves core customers
"Now, no matter whether you are investing or corporate management, don't make predictions and plans that (take) a long time. Forecasts are all 'slapped' in the face." Wu Shichun, founding partner of Meihua Venture Capital, pointed out that in response to environmental changes, the smaller the "grained size" of the enterprise time cycle, the easier it is to adjust flexibly.
"When the changes were not so fast before, companies could make plans based on annual or even a few years, or even make predictions, but now this 'grained size' is getting more and more detailed, like ByteDance, reviewing (review) based on quarters and two months." Wu Shichun said that companies should not make long-term plans when making decisions, but keep turning the "grained size" into what to do next week and what to do tomorrow. This month will decide whether to lay off employees next month to deal with (the situation).
Wu Shichun said that the current order capability is high technology, and being able to handle core customers is the company that can survive and adapt to cycles in the market.
Wu Shichun gave an example and said, "I recently looked at a company, Jiuan Medical I think it is very powerful.The amazing thing about this company is not that it has seized such a large order (everyone in the United States may buy it three kits, and earned 16 billion in the first three quarters), because it has completed such a large production, and its personnel have not changed. It has completely adopted an elastic production network, developing more than 400 companies into part of its production network. It does not require a high workforce scale for a peak production. "
" It's like you are on the football field, you see a ball over there, you run over, and the ball has been kicked away long ago. "Wu Shichun believes that companies that need to bury their heads and run wildly for a few years to complete a long-term R&D cannot receive real orders. Companies need to cultivate order capabilities as core capabilities, integrate market-oriented order disassembly technology to survive for orders and survive with customers.
"The technology cycle is weaker than the impact of economic cycles, and the economic cycle is weaker than the impact of political cycles, and the political cycle is weaker than the impact of population and concept cycles and ideological impact. "Wu Shichun believes that as an investor, if you invest from an early stage of a technology to its tail, it may not make money overall. Companies like Moutai will definitely be drinking Moutai in 100 years, but some technology companies that look very peak now no longer exist in 100 years. Therefore, many technology companies that look very high-tech may not be able to travel to longer-term cycles.
Xiaoxiang Morning News reporter Wang Chacha Photo provided by/2022 China Business Leaders Annual Meeting
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