The current price of silicon materials is falling, and the reason for the price drop must be one or both of the following two:
First, the supply is increasing.
Second, the demand is reduced.
If the main reason for the current price decline of silicon materials is only the increase in the supply of silicon materials, and at the same time, the downstream demand has not decreased or decreased not much, then you can definitely observe the following three facts clearly:
The first fact is: The first to fall in price will definitely be the silicon material. But this is obviously not the case. The first thing to drop in price was silicon wafer . At the same time, battery cells and components have already begun to fall sharply.
The truth is: Silicon material is the last to fall, and silicon wafers are the first to see price cuts. Silicon material does not fall earlier or faster than modules and cells.
The second fact is: The one with the largest price drop will definitely be the silicon material . But this is obviously not the case. Currently, the biggest decline is in silicon wafers. At the same time, the decline in cells and components is also very huge.
The truth is: the decline of silicon wafers is much greater than that of silicon materials, and silicon wafers are the one with the largest decline among the four links.
The third fact is : The profit margin of silicon materials will definitely drop sharply to a low level . But this is not the case. Even according to the current most ruthless gossip: the price of silicon material is 200, this price can still allow Tongwei to correspond to a profit margin of 70%. Even those with poor silicon materials can have a profit margin of about 50%.
The truth is: Who has ever seen competition worsen with profit margins above 50%? In other words, if a 50% profit margin is still called competition deterioration, then the more such competition deterioration, the better?
If the price reduction of silicon materials is indeed caused by increased supply and worsening competition, you can definitely see the three facts mentioned above: silicon materials are the first to reduce prices, silicon material prices have been cut the most sharply, and silicon material profit margins have fallen to extremely low levels . On the other hand, if you cannot see even one of these three facts, it must mean that there is no oversupply of silicon material and competition has not worsened.
At this point, we can already conclude: The reduction in global demand for components is the root cause of the current price reduction of silicon materials.
Regarding the reason why global component demand has decreased, I communicated with Tongwei officials on the phone and confirmed that there are two main reasons: One is the long Christmas holiday, and the other is the extremely cold weather in winter. These two factors are not suitable for construction, so there is a decrease in demand.
Such reductions and price cuts are obviously temporary and are just seasonal off-peak seasons. This was also the case at the end of last year. Its demand will soon recover, and its impact on silicon prices is also temporary. At about a certain point after the Spring Festival, I will make a more certain prediction about the trend of silicon prices (similar to the end of last year and the beginning of this year). Please stay tuned.
General conclusion: Although the current four links of photovoltaic are reducing prices, the supply and demand pattern and competition pattern of silicon materials have not fundamentally deteriorated. The reason for the price reduction is temporary.This is in sharp contrast to the reason for the price reduction of silicon wafers
I will be in Public account: Haihan Finance updates the latest new medical infrastructure, integrated die-casting, Automotive intelligence, lidar , HUD, car standard chips, air suspension, L3 intelligent driving, PET copper foil, nano battery, 800V high voltage, photovoltaic HJT, TOPCON, perovskite , photovoltaic XBC, BIPV, IGBT chip, silicon carbide SIC, CTP/CTC/CTB battery, 4680 battery, industrial mother machine, Sea breeze soft straight high voltage, new energy vehicle high voltage fast charging, high nickel ternary, carbon fiber , PET aluminum foil, PET copper foil, air source heat pump, new materials, innovative traditional Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, rural revitalization, lithium mine, vanadium Flow batteries, sodium-ion batteries, distributed energy storage, centralized energy storage, antigen detection and other latest topic hot topics are explored. The future belongs to a structural market with high expectations and differences. The fundamental reason is to grasp the core track and the inherent value logic of stocks and the expected differences.
— END —
Like first and then read, develop a habit
Disclaimer: Pictures and data come from the Internet. Reprinting is only for communication and learning. If there are any copyright issues, please contact the author to delete
