For real estate to play a reasonable and long-term role in my country's future economic development, appropriate industrial policies are essential.
The first is the adjustment of industrial status. Since 2016, real estate control policies have been stepped up layer by layer and become increasingly strict.
The tone of real estate policy began to adjust in the fourth quarter of 2020. In the 14th Five-Year Plan, it was proposed to promote the coordinated development of finance, real estate industry and the real economy, and promote healthy housing consumption.
This shows that policy adjustments and the future industrial role transformation of the real estate industry are basically synchronized, resetting the tone for the development of the real estate industry in the next few years.
The 2021 two sessions once again reiterated: better solve the housing problem of the masses and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.
Looking at the real estate market situation in 2021, while bringing definite development opportunities to the real estate industry, real estate is also an area with high investment risks.
Based on the local market environment, the Dalian Municipal Government has successively launched some specific measures to implement the national macro policy and regulate the environment. On May 5, 2015, it issued the real estate "5.5" policy, adjusting the identification standards for ordinary commercial housing, and accepting loans but not housing;
June 2016 On the 8th, the purchase restriction was officially lifted, and the housing purchase restriction policy in the city's four districts and high-tech zones was relaxed. Foreigners are not subject to restrictions on the number of self-occupied commercial houses;
Dalian's real estate policy remained loose in 2017, and multiple policies such as points settlement were introduced to stimulate consumption and continue to destock .
Combination regulation and control began in 2018. In order to promote the inventory depletion cycle of commercial housing to a reasonable level, the Dalian Municipal Government Office issued a notice with the theme of "Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in our City" on March 21, adjusting the purchase restriction area ( Zhongshan District , Xigang District , Shahekou District , High-tech Park), adjust the minimum down payment ratio of loans, the maximum loan amount of personal provident fund loan house purchase is reduced to 400,000 yuan, and the loan interest rate is 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate.
On January 8, 2019, Dazhengbanfa [2019] No. 5 document was released, which determines the proportion of specific projects based on planning and specific conditions, adopts a centralized construction method of rental housing, gradually expands the supply of rental housing market, and implements the national housing policy requirements on both renting and purchasing.
On July 26, 2019, a notice was issued on strengthening the regulation of the real estate market. Policies continued to be tightened, commodity housing price guidance was implemented, housing prices were stabilized, and housing prices officially entered the "four restrictions" era.
On August 16, 2021, in order to thoroughly implement the central government's deployment, adhere to the positioning of "housing for living, not speculation", achieve the goal of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations", and promoting the stable development of the real estate market, the municipal government issued a notice "On Further Strengthening the Regulation and Supervision of the Real Estate Market", which is summarized as follows:
(1) Sales restrictions in five districts; (2) Limiting premium rates for residential land transfers; (3) Increase the proportion of bidding deposits; (4) The cost of building policy housing through bidding is not included in the development cost of commercial housing; (5) Strengthen price guidance for new commercial housing; (6) Strengthen real estate financial management; (7) Prohibit sales before approval, holding back on sales, false propaganda, and spreading rumors about rising housing prices.
In 2021, there were 60 commercial and residential land supplies in Dalian, with a supply volume of 4.76 million square meters. The supply has recovered, and it is mainly in suburban areas, showing the characteristics of area-based supply; 57 commercial and residential land transactions were completed, with a transaction volume of nearly 4.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.6%, and the total transaction value was nearly 24.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.3%.
Taking the "816 New Deal" as the boundary, the Dalian land market in 2021 was in full swing in the first half of the year, expanding westward and northward, and all large amounts of land were sold. In the second half of the year, policies were tightened, and unsold increased, mostly at low prices.
Judging from the year-end data, the transaction area and total transaction amount have both dropped. In terms of regional distribution, the degree of "marginalization" of local auctions has further intensified.
Jinpu New District continued to top the list of land supply and sales, with a transaction area of nearly 2.72 million square meters and a transaction value of nearly 8.1 billion yuan; Ganjingzi District ranked second, with a transaction area of nearly 880,000 square meters and a transaction value of over 8.8 billion yuan; Lushunkou District ranked third, with a transaction area of over 680,000 square meters and a transaction value of nearly 1.9 billion yuan.
However, the proportion of transaction area in Zhongshan District, Xigang District and Shahekou District in the city is very small, and the land sold in Shahekou District is not for residential use. In addition, the high-tech park will have 0 supply of residential and apartment land in 2021.
Adjust measures to local conditions, Apply policies according to the city , the "816 New Deal" issued by the Dalian Municipal Government has had a significant impact on real estate companies in at least the following three aspects:
(1) In terms of land market, although the municipal government has increased the supply of residential land in hotspot areas, due to the very high urbanization rate in Dalian, the land market in hotspot areas in the city is still "more monks and less rice".
The "816 New Deal" adopts the lottery method of reaching the highest premium rate, or switching to the method of bidding for construction to continue bidding. Jinpu New District, Development Zone, and Lushun New City District, as "non-sale restriction" and "non-purchase restriction" areas, have certain favorable conditions. Real estate development companies can often obtain land at the lowest price. The degree of competition in the land market in these three areas is low;
(2) In terms of the capital chain of real estate companies, the "816 New Deal" controls both the starting price and the premium rate, strictly controls the transaction price, reduces the cost of land acquisition for developers, and thereby reduces the marketing difficulties caused by high selling prices in the later period.
In addition, since the property rights of policy housing built through bidding belong to the government, the investment is not included in the cost of commercial housing development and construction, and the bidding deposit for residential land in hot areas has been increased. The New Deal has raised the threshold for real estate companies to sell land in many aspects;
(3) In terms of the impact on customers' psychological expectations, the purchase restriction policy released in 2018 is still implemented for home buyers, and the scope of purchase restrictions has not changed.
The "816 New Deal" sales restrictions have increased the scope of sales restrictions in Ganjingzi District, increased the down payment ratio for purchasing a second home, and the number of years for new homes to be listed for trading. Strict inspections and strict control of home purchase funds have curbed some investors and real estate speculators. Due to the speculative psychology of customers, the home purchase cycle of self-occupied customers will also be extended;
On the other hand, the New Deal emphasizes the government departments’ measures to strictly control the rise in housing prices. Customers who just need to buy a house will feel reassured and will make more rational choices when purchasing a house instead of impulsive consumption.
Dalian’s new provident fund regulations, which will be implemented on March 1, 2021, have relaxed the restrictions on provident fund loans, reduced the application certification materials, changed the housing housing identification rules for provident fund loans, changed the loan subscription to house recognition, and expanded the scope of use for employees who pay deposits in other places, providing more convenience for home buyers who just need to buy a house, and reducing the pressure of home purchase.
At the beginning of 2022, various banks in Dalian began to lower interest rates , and LPR over 5 years fell by 5 basis points.
Since most banks will start to adjust from January of the new year, for existing customers, most customers can only enjoy the reduced interest rates from January 1, 2023 when the price is repriced.
But for new home buyers who complete the loan after January 20, 2022, they can immediately enjoy the benefits of interest rate cuts, which is undoubtedly a positive stimulus for consumers who want to buy a house this year.
In summary, due to the tightening of national external policies and the latest policies issued by the Dalian Municipal Government, the Dalian property market has been greatly cooled, which is detrimental to the development of many real estate groups.
However, since March 2021, Dalian City’s loan policies for home buyers have become looser. Policies targeting the different tendencies of developers and consumers indicate that the government advocates that citizens only need to buy and live in houses rather than speculate.
Real estate companies should make timely adjustments according to new changes, clarify their target customer groups in the fierce market competition, carry out precise marketing, capture customers who are in urgent need, and stabilize their share in the Dalian real estate market.
At the same time, the strategic development focus can be shifted to the real estate market in surrounding second- and third-tier cities.
