1. Market Review
As of December 27, , in terms of interest rate bonds of various terms: short-end interest rates have increased compared with the previous month, medium and long-term interest rates have declined compared with the previous month. , the yield curve has flattened, and the short-end interest rates have significantly corrected .
As of December 27, the maturity yields of 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year Chinese government bonds were reported at 2.2469%, 2.6703%, and 2.8657% respectively. The 1-year maturity increased by 11.28 BP from the previous month, while the 5-year and 10-year maturity rates decreased by 2.42 BP and 1.93 BP respectively from the previous month.
As of December 27, credit bonds, term spreads have widened, and credit spreads have narrowed .
As of December 27, the 1-year ChinaBond short- and medium-term note yield to maturity (AAA), the 3-year ChinaBond short-term and short-term note yield to maturity (AAA), the 1-year ChinaBond short-term and short-term note yield to maturity (AA+), and the 3-year ChinaBond short-term and short-term note yield to maturity (AA+) were 2.7871%, 3.2327%, 3.065%, and 3.6112% respectively.
Figure 1 1Y, 5Y, 10Y China Bond Treasury Bond Maturity Yield
Figure 2 Yield to maturity of short-term and medium-term notes of ChinaBond
2. Liquidity and funding aspects
1. Open market operations
From December 1st to December 27, the central bank provided a total of 1.898 billion in liquidity, withdrew 906 billion, and the net investment was 992 billion.
Among them, reverse repurchase of 48 billion was carried out, with a maturity of 406 billion; MLF 650 billion was invested, with a maturity of 500 billion; treasury cash fixed deposits of were put into a fixed deposit of , with a maturity of 000 million; central bank bill swap was 000 million, with a maturity of 000 million.
2, money market interest rates
As of December 27, DR001 and DR007 were 0.5618% and 1.9531% respectively, R001 and R007 were 0.8456% and 4.2408% respectively, funds maintained a wide balance throughout the month .
Figure 3 Money market interest rate
Source: Wind, Huaxin Securities Asset Management
3. November economic and financial data
1, economic data
In terms of inflation, : CPI in November recorded 1.6% year-on-year, the previous value was 2.1%, PPI recorded -1.3% year-on-year in November, and the previous value was -1.3%; the PPI-CPI scissors gap continued to converge, and the pressure on corporate raw material costs has improved.
In terms of production and investment, : In November, PMI was below the boom and bust line for two consecutive months, recording 48.0%, the previous value was 49.2%.
Figure 4 Specific changes in PMI
In November industrial added value recorded 2.2% year-on-year, the previous value was 5.0%; November Fixed asset investment accumulated 5.3% year-on-year, the previous value was 5.8%;
consumer demand: Total retail sales of consumer goods in November -5.9%, the previous value -0.5%.
2, financial data
November M1 recorded 4.6% year-on-year, the previous value was 5.8%; M2 recorded 12.4% year-on-year, the previous value was 11.8%. In November, the stock of social financing scale recorded 10.0% year-on-year, and the previous value was 10.3%; the monthly value of social financing scale in November recorded 1.990 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 608.3 billion yuan.
html The total amount and structure of social financing data in November have deteriorated, and the situation of residential financing is not as good as expected.
Figure 5 Monthly changes in social financing scale
Figure 6 Changes in RMB loans during the month
4. Market Outlook
It is expected that the overall future funding situation will be wide and balanced . Affected by repeated local epidemics, economic slowdown, real estate impact, etc., there is still room for expansion of subsequent monetary policies . In the future, fiscal support will be moderate, and credit expansion will be confirmed by new data.
What we may face in the future is a neutral currency + wide credit market environment . The best time for the bond market marginal income has passed, short-term is expected to still be dominated by shocks .
Disclaimer
The content published in this article is for reference only and should not be relied upon as a forecast, promotional material or investment advice. The third-party data, information, materials and other content used in this article come from sources that this account believes to be reliable. This article does not constitute the Company’s solicitation of anyone to invest in any investment products described in such materials, or the Company’s making an offer in this regard. It is not an agreement between the Company and investors and is not legally binding on both parties. Before participating in the product, investors should carefully read and understand the relevant business rules and product contracts, understand the specific conditions of the product, and pay attention to investment risks . The content published in this account may contain certain forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements are subject to certain uncertainties. This account states that this account assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements regardless of the latest information, future events or other circumstances.
