A-share has been positive for the past few days, but the overall market atmosphere is extremely calm. Except for some media calling for heavy news, many people are not even willing to mention it. Is it because the positive news not enough? With so many positive factors, what will happen to in tomorrow’s ? Next, I will start from the technical aspects of the market and make an analysis and prediction of tomorrow's market trend based on the news situation.
First, briefly discuss the impact of favorable factors on A-shares. Here I will briefly talk about what impact these positive factors will have on the market tomorrow or even next week.
1. There are quite a lot of positives about A-shares these days. For example, CSI Finance lowered the interest rate of margin financing and expanded the margin financing targets yesterday. This is a relatively official positive. Others such as: , many broad-based ETFs in Shenzhen received a large inflow of funds. Funds set off a wave of self-purchasing, trillion-dollar foreign-funded giants once again increased their holdings of Moutai, and many listed companies repurchase their own stocks, etc., which can be said to be intensively released, which shows the management's willingness to maintain market stability.
2, is beneficial to the current role of the market. When A-shares treat favorable things, the market always responds with a more contradictory attitude. The positive news during the decline is often more negative than negative news, because people's reverse thinking gains the upper hand at this time. As long as there is a slightly bigger positive news, everyone's first idea is to take advantage of the positive news to ship, and market participants will participate in the ranks of sale and accelerate the decline of the stock index.
3, let alone the other things, just the positive news about the financing and financing issued by China Securities Regulatory Commission has nothing to do with most retail investors in the market. This is because:
A shares have assets exceeding 500,000, and I don’t have accurate numbers. However, only one of the retail investors I know has passed this threshold, but he clearly stated that he will not play financing and financing.
This time, the expansion of the two-financial target is mainly because includes more small and medium-sized stocks, so it has little impact on tomorrow's market trend, or even no impact, because it is not an indicator stock.
Second, the characteristics of the current daily trend of the A-share market.
1, be sure to understand the current trend of the A-share market. The trend of the market is now a medium-term downward trend, with two signs:
, the daily trend chart, the 60-day moving average, on October 14, dead cross, 120-day moving average, the last time these two moving averages were dead crossed on February 15 this year. After 11 trading days of the dead cross, the market began to plunge until April 27.
is the weekly line's 60-week line dead cross 120-week line. This is the first time since October 2018. That time the market fell from 3200 points to the famous 2440 points. If the daily trend changes greatly, the weekly trend will be more stable and clear.
2, the trend characteristics of the market. Range oscillation, repair technical indicators.
is the 20-day moving average suppressing the index. The recent rebound has not curbed the trend and speed of the 20-day moving average downward, which has limited the height of the rebound. The large oscillation range is between 3000-3100 points, which divides this range into two: strong oscillation is between 3050-3100 points, and weak oscillation is between 3000-3050 points; it is currently a weak oscillation process, and the market 3050 points has a strong resistance effect.
Second, the daily technical indicators of the market are still in a repair process, such as KDJ, CCI, MTM, etc., that is, the repair of the technical indicators has not been completed.
3, tomorrow's market trend prediction analysis. Through the above analysis of fundamentals and technical aspects, we can conclude that the market will experience a downward trend tomorrow:
One is a range oscillation, with 3000 points as the lower edge, between 3000 and 3050 points, it will fall below 3000 points during the period, which means testing its support; the other is to directly jump low and open near 3000 points, then fall to late trading . I tend to be the first prediction.This is because:
First, these two positive factors on the weekend have no major effect on the main force of the existing market playing large-cap stocks. In addition to the positive factors produced by CSI Finance, it is basically cashed out on Friday. Besides, the current market is not short of money, the key is the issue of foreign capital outflows; in addition, the market is currently on a downward path, and it is not sensitive to positive factors, or even conflicts, and there will be a negative attitude in terms of emotions. Tomorrow, the main funds will speculate on the above two positive factors as negative factors.
Second, the situation of foreign capital outflow has not improved. The main A-share funds continued to have net outflows, and last week was net outflows for five trading days, with a total net outflow of 86.7 billion yuan. This can be called large-scale shipments. If this trend does not change, the market will not improve. If the market is about to rise tomorrow, this situation of net outflow will change, either reducing the amount of net outflow or directly turning into net inflow.
third is Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index , bank index, and liquor index have been sluggish recently, and the bank index has also hit a new low in two years, which has dragged down the trend of the A-share market. Coupled with the differentiation of the indexes of the two markets, the complex relationship between the weighted stocks makes it difficult for the market to rise.
Fourth, the new lithium scenery sector, which is heavily invested by the main funds, has risen for 7 consecutive trading days in the early stage and is facing adjustments in the short term. Although these varieties were all small red markets on Friday, their short-term technical indicators are under repair. There is little probability that the short-term rise will rise again, and there will even be a rapid decline.
5: There is another important highlight of tomorrow's market trend, which is the securities sector and the real estate sector. The two sectors responded surprisingly consistently to their respective positive effects on Friday: opened high and closed low and . Is it accumulating energy, fighting again tomorrow, or to fulfill the positive effects? This needs to be paid close attention to. If these two sectors rise together, the market will be another situation.
To sum up, although tomorrow's A-share market will be favorable, the market reaction is ambiguous, not positive, and has little impact on the trend, and will even trigger the reverse operation of the main funds. In addition, the positive news of CSI Finance has been fulfilled on Friday, and the big factor of foreign capital's escape has not changed. The trend of A-shares will not change significantly in the short term. Tomorrow, the market will continue to continue the fluctuating adjustment trend, testing the support strength of 3,000 points.
(The above are personal opinions and are for reference only. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when entering the market)
