A brief discussion on medicine, information innovation, photovoltaics
Confirmation and uncertainty are just like Nobel Prize quantum mechanics. Many disciplines are too backward under multiple factors and cannot be explained, so they will gradually be linked to religious theories such as theology, or Buddhism, . Einstein Newton finally studied theology in his later years, just like the Buddhist theory, the world we see is not real! Light is very strange, neither wave nor particle, wave-particle duality ! It is the same as Tathagata , and it has no origin or goes, so it is called Tathagata. The Buddhist scriptures say that neither birth nor death, neither dirty nor clean is a kind of quantum superposition of state!
I say that the return is proportional, not risk, but "the ability to deal with risks"! Investing is not about beating them in other people’s games. It's about controlling yourself in your own game!
I also said not to lie flat, just lie down, get up quickly.
I also said to build a large base for the glory and economic fluctuations. Today, let’s talk about medicine and information technology. The variables of fiscal transfer payments and photovoltaics are revealed overseas.
Medical
Logistic 1, four major procurements in autumn - dental implants, orthopedic joints, biochemical, and electrophysiology are all better than expected. The pharmaceutical industry has a weak cycle of performance and a strong cycle of policy, and the biggest pressure is now alleviating.
centralized procurement has changed from a bidding mode to a price limit mode, avoiding price-killing without bottom line, taking into account the reasonable profits of the company, and giving stable expectations.
There is a section that has been adjusted for two years and the fog has dissipated.
Logic 2. The 200 billion interest-subsidized loan for medical infrastructure will promote the domestic subsidy of medical equipment, which is a long-term benefit to driving the increase in domestic consumables.
This national policy is very strong, exceeding my own expectations. It is expected that the funding for purchasing instruments this year will be several times larger than that during the epidemic, and it has increased by more than double compared with normal years. For domestic instrument manufacturers, this policy requires buying domestic instruments as much as possible, which will bring significant order demand in the short term (the next year) and accelerate the domestic replacement of the entire basic scientific instrument in the long run.
uses to luminous as . His industrial model is closed "device + reagent" system . In 2022, the domestic chemiluminescence market size is 40 billion yuan, which is the largest sub-track of medical devices. Its foreign capital market share is 75%, led by the four majors Roche, Abbott , Beckman, and Siemens , and the domestic market share is 25%.
2011 Before, all fully automatic chemiluminescence in China was imported, and new industries were the first to break the foreign investment monopoly. The top 5 domestic chemiluminescence are the industry, Antu Biologics , Mindray Medical , Mike Biologics , and Yahuilong.
part tertiary hospital chemiluminescence demand has approached the level of developed countries and is still monopolized by the four foreign capitalists. Level 3 hospitals will basically configure one or more imported chemiluminescence instruments to conduct tests of advantageous projects, such as Roche's tumors, Abbott's infectious diseases, Siemens's Kung Fu, and Beckman's gonads. Similar to developed countries, multiple brands of instruments coexist to ensure the reliable results of each parameter.
Imported instruments are generally used as the main daily working machine to complete a large number of tests, while domestic instruments are generally used as backup machines or for testing special projects. The domestic stand-alone output is even compared with the lowest Beckman.
At present, new industry tumor marker , characteristic gonad project, Mindray liver fiber project, Antu's infectious disease project, Yahuilong's self-immunization and AMH project, in the early stages of development, they all competed with the four foreign capital's . provides clinical needs that the latter cannot meet temporarily.
The hospital's revenue capacity has been greatly affected in the three years of the epidemic, so this loan is indeed a bit timely. Implementation timeline: Since there is a certain time difference between the procurement and installation of the hospital's equipment, it is expected that the orders related to the interest subsidy loan will be gradually reflected from Q4 and will continue to the first half of the year.
a stock needs to add 2 new logic
【1】 holdings bottom. From the perspective of full-based holdings, it should have hit a new low in the past 10 years. Everyone has very few bargaining chips for medicine.
【2】Value bottom, the valuation level of the pharmaceutical sector next year, and from the perspective of PEG, should also be a new low in the past 10 years. The overall valuation level is similar to the end of 2018, but the valuation of many stocks has hit new lows.
Everything is a cycle. In terms of configuration direction, China's long-term trend of population aging and incidence rate also ensures the long-term demand of the pharmaceutical industry. Many companies have gradually improved their innovation capabilities by taking advantage of the window period in the past few years, and their growth points will also enter a harvest period in the next few years, such as Zhenghai Bio and Xinmai Medical .
Another dimension is to export overseas. There is no centralized procurement overseas. In fact, it is also to bypass this centralized procurement neckband curse. On the plate, for example, Kelun, Kelun is two ADC drugs, and has been authorized. Foreign rights are sold to Merck ! It means that an international manufacturer has recognized him. However, the person in charge of R&D has left and started his own company. There is a bottleneck in the company's own R&D capabilities.
For example, Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical is still the logic of overseas sales. paclitaxel (treatment of breast cancer , etc.) is exported, but the water solubility is not good. Using a carrier can improve water solubility. Before, castor oil was used as a carrier, but the effect is average. Now, using Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical's albumin as a carrier can achieve good water solubility; ps, last year, there was a Shanghai Yizhong stock market, and a paclitaxel polymer micelle for injection. I understand that the particles may be made very fine!
What is the most exciting thing you have ever done with the opposite sex? --Borrow Glen's fund! National talks on innovative drugs will begin in November will be another important window. If the policy confirms again, the market will continue. If can be turned significantly, it will be exciting. However, the general direction of centralized procurement will not change. The industry does not have the opportunity or possibility to increase its valuation. It is more like a stock market atmosphere group. It is recommended to try it briefly.
Photocopy
logic, U.S. suspends the imposition of double counter-tariffs, which is expected to accelerate export
President Biden President temporarily exempts from levying double counter-tariffs for Photocopy battery and components in the four Southeast Asian countries.
html In early June, White House officially stated that the United States will give 24-month tariff exemptions to components purchased from Cambodia , Malaysia , Thailand and Vietnam. However, related industrial chain companies are still worried about the subsequent double counter-tariff traceability issues, so shipments to the United States have not been fully restored.
This policy is implemented and officially stated that the double counter-tariff will not be imposed before the deadline, which will greatly reduce the market's concerns about retrospective tariff collection. Therefore, it is expected that Southeast Asia's production capacity will be significantly improved to the failure to ship. It is expected that the demand for components in the United States will be further revised to 40-50GW next year.
It is recommended to pay attention to component factories such as Longi , Jinko, Tianhe , Jinko, and Jinko, which were greatly affected by the US incident in the early stage, as well as inverter (Sunshine, Deye , Goodwei , Jinlang ), which accounted for a large proportion of revenue in the United States, and Tesla photovoltaic roof glass supplier Amaton. and benefit from the increase in demand, such as photovoltaic films (Saiwu, Foster , Haiyou).
Information Creation
Information Creation, financialInformation Creation, in the entireInformation Creation, only financialInformation Creation has fundamentals, because other government departments have no money, and they cannot do information creation for the time being, only financial enterprises can do it!
