Financial data for the third quarter of this year was released. In September, the total amount of M2 reached 262.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year.
Just look at this data, the total amount of M2 can be understood as the sum of all the money in the market, and the growth rate of M2 can be understood as the speed of water release. Since April, the growth rate of M2 has maintained double-digit growth since April, and even the first year of masks has not reached this growth rate. Although the growth rate of M2 was generally higher than that of now before 2016, due to the small base of money supply, the amount of water released at the same growth rate is smaller. Now, the base of money supply of 260 trillion yuan is already very large, and more than 20 trillion yuan of extra money was released in the market in a month, and this amount of water release has been very strong.
But what about the money if you put so much water?
All the positive measures above are now regarded as chanting scriptures by the market. If you don’t listen, you won’t listen. For example, the largest reservoir in my country, the stock market and the real estate market, not to mention the work of being busy, at least it has a smile curve, but it is actually cold. A shares repeatedly jumped around 3,000 points, and its market value fell from 97.85 trillion at the end of 2021 to about 84 trillion now.
In addition, the large amount of funds in the market, as of the end of June, the total amount of trusts was 21.22 trillion yuan, and the total amount of bank wealth management was 29.15 trillion yuan; as of the end of August, the total amount of private equity fund was 20.41 trillion yuan, and the total size of public funds was 27.06 trillion yuan. The stock scale of these four major gold-absorbing sectors combined is 97.84 trillion yuan, and the more than 300 billion yuan of futures asset management, it is less than 100 trillion yuan.
followed by bank deposits with the largest amount of funds. As of the end of the first half of the year, residents' deposits exceeded 111 trillion yuan. This is because everyone's risk aversion is rising, and almost all the funds in their hands are converted into risk-free bank deposits or treasury bonds, and low-risk money and money or bond funds. Just like the two recently issued electronic savings treasury bonds, the face interest rates of 3-year and 5-year periods are 3.05% and 3.22% respectively, with a maximum issuance of 40 billion yuan. ICBC divided the sales share of 8 billion yuan, and it was sold out in just one day after it was launched. It can be seen that everyone has money in their pockets, but they are afraid of it, so they can only move closer to low risks.
also has the monetary fund stock scale of 11.21 trillion yuan and the bond fund scale is 5.07 trillion yuan. These two categories account for 60% of the scale of public funds.
But the above funds, such as depositing more than 100 trillion yuan, does not mean that everyone's wealth will increase, and it will still be more than 100 trillion yuan after maturity. Low-risk assets will not add leverage like stocks and funds to increase their value, which will lead to an increase in market value and increase in wealth. So although there seems to be a lot of money in the market, most of the funds are idle and not as thick as everyone's wallet.
plus our money is not to lend money to ZF like the beautiful country. ZF directly sent it to the people for consumption, but to lend money to commercial banks through reverse repurchase , hot and sour noodles, spicy noodles, and other water repurchase tools, and lend money to commercial banks, and the bank then releases the money through lending. Therefore, our main preference is to lend money to enterprises or individuals with loan capabilities. These people use the money to do production and investment, thereby driving the entire industrial chain and allowing people in all links to make money and spend money, thereby promoting consumption.
So this amount of water needs to be combined with S melt data. Loans increased by 18.08 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year. From the structural perspective, household loans increased by 3.41 trillion yuan, while the figure in the same period last year was 6.35 trillion yuan. Household loans basically account for the majority, so the decline of 3 trillion yuan can also be regarded as the decrease in real estate sales; in addition, corporate loans increased by 14.48 trillion yuan, while the figure in the same period last year was 10.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 4 trillion yuan. Combined with the recent information of fruit companies in the market to acquire land, repurchase commercial housing, corporate liabilities , etc., it can be seen that part of the loaned money has been used to protect real estate.
It is mainly real estate, which involves all walks of life. After the real estate industry has been shut down, steel, building materials, home appliances and other industries have become overcapacity. At this time, the relevant companies will not expand production and increase production. The boss’s life is difficult, and employees will not live a difficult life, and salary cuts and layoffs will follow one after another. Many bosses still rely on loans for their business. In the past, there were many opportunities, the economy grew rapidly, and the appreciation of assets could cover debts, so everyone had motivation, so the overall wealth in the market increased. But when the market growth rate cannot cover debts, people are unwilling to borrow money to produce and consume, so the sluggish consumption and overcapacity interact to form an e-cycle. Coupled with the lack of confidence, delaying consumption, the result is even more intensified.
Of course, there are also industries in the market that are booming, such as live streaming sales, especially some top anchors, whose sales can match the revenue of a listed company. This is because most of the producers are overcapacity now, and as the seller anchors, there are many products to choose from, and they have high voice. They can choose good and profitable products, and can generate huge sales with the support of their own huge traffic.
In short, it is difficult for individuals to change the overall environment. We are in the whirlpool of economic cycle, and now we are mainly seeking stability and waiting.
