Speaking of Vietnam in 2022, the screen search is full of "Vietnam miracle"! Vietnam's economy has grown significantly, manufacturing industry has risen to replace China's production capacity, etc.
Vietnam's economy has benefited from the support of US capital and has indeed achieved good results in low-end manufacturing industries such as clothing, shoes and hats, and electronics industries! For American capital, it is indeed a chicken that can "lay golden eggs" in the future!
But with the US hike rate , this chicken looks like it will be slaughtered soon!
The US CPI growth rate in September was higher than expected, and the 75 basis points increase in interest rates in November was a foregone conclusion!
In response to the US dollar interest rate hike, the Vietnamese central bank urgently announced a hike of 100 basis points to 5% as early as September 26, but it still could not keep foreign capital from fleeing Vietnam!
According to forecasters of DBS Bank in Vietnam, under pressure from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by , the central bank of Vietnam is very likely to raise interest rates above 6.8% by the first quarter of 2023!
Vietnam does not have a moat of foreign exchange reserves as huge as China or Hong Kong. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to suppress demand, the demand for US imported goods is gradually declining, and Vietnam's ability to earn foreign exchange is weakening!
And the fact that Vietnamese real estate tycoon Truong My Lan caused a bank run due to fraud crimes on October 8 also shows that Vietnam's financial system is under test!
Vietnam stock market suffered a lot of selling pressure at the same time! Within the six months ended October 14, foreign investors had net sold out financial securities assets of up to 1260 trillion VND in advance.
As of September, Vietnam's foreign reserves have dropped to US$101.4 billion, and Vietnam's total debt is about US$175 billion. Exports weakened, and the rise in US dollar interest rates has led to an increase in repayment costs, and the shadow of debt explosion is looming!
Will Vietnam's economy suffer from a three-killing stocks, foreign exchange and debts and be harvested?
etc. Feder raises the US dollar interest rate to nominal interest rate 4%~5%, you will know!
If you want to lay golden eggs, you also have to see if the owner is hungry and eats!
