The three major U.S. indexes fell sharply overnight, and market panic heated up, and futures indexes in major global stock markets also plunged and fell. So against the backdrop of bad news air strikes, will A shares open low and move to an independent market next week? Or will it continue to fluctuate and fall with the flow?
The reason is, US stock is a sharp drop or The survey data of the University of Michigan also shows that consumers' inflation expectations rise, and coupled with the intensive blow of US officials, it may continue to raise interest rate peaks. Affected by this, the yields of US dollar index and 10-year US bond rose, resulting in pressure on the valuation of non-US currencies and technology stocks . Finally, based on the rebound of global stock markets, the US stock market staged an independent sell-off market.
However, if the stock futures indexes in various countries have plunged, there is basically no suspense to open lower next Monday. So what we need to figure out now is, what will happen to market after opening low? After all, the pressure on the US inflation is transmitted to the interest rate hike chain, which will trigger a major shock in the global capital market.
is still the same rule today. Let’s give you a technical explanation, because although our CPI hit a new high of 2.8%, the overall inflation is still controllable. So based on the premise that the price includes all information, we should carefully sort out the current market trend.
has been sorted out for you before the session. After three consecutive negative weekly lines, this week is a short-term change time window, which is clearly explained in the article on October 1. This week, the market bottomed out and rebounded and closed the red positive line, which has verified Da Ge's deduction judgment. So how will the market move next week?
weekly line bottoming out rebounding hammer line itself is also a relatively strong signal to stop the decline. The superimposed K-line combination is still a bullish pattern with positive and negative coverage, so Da Ge judges that the market will still have a new rebound high next week. However, after the continuous positive trend this Thursday, there is a relatively large uncertainty in the safety margin and rebound space that continues to chase the rise. In this way, controlling the operating rhythm is very important.
In addition, from the perspective of the general trend, the logic of the second wave adjustment has not changed. According to the definition of wave theory, as long as the low point of 2863 is not broken down, the adjustments since 3424 points are all second wave adjustments. What I did for you before was the ABC three-wave structure division. There are a little differences here. Let’s take a closer look with the daily line.
The first situation is that here is a 4-wave rebound at the daily level. After all, the rebound of positive momentum this Thursday, the rise in both volume and price has accelerated, so it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a rebound in 4 waves. To put it simply, the three-wave structure of ABC was about to be reset before. After all, wave 3 suddenly emerged from the acceleration wave. Here, the probability of the four waves rebounding and slowing down is high, and it is difficult to directly determine that it is a reversal market trend.
compared with the second wave rebound, if this is a 4-wave rebound at the daily level, time and space can be seen again. The good news is that there is still room for a short-term rebound. The bad news is that the time for the real bottoming out will be delayed later. It is estimated that the fourth quarter market will not be launched as early as November.
The second case is whether this is the ABC three-wave adjustment structure. is divided into 5 wave structure as shown in the figure above, and here is the sub-wave rebound of C4 wave. For the 6-day rebound of C2 wave, the bottom divergence structure of the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index 60-minute cycle is only corresponding to the 6-day rebound cycle, and the time will form a direct symmetry.
If the C4 wave rebounds, then the time and space pressure level given to everyone by Da Ge will be taken seriously. After all, if you buy at the high point of the C4 wave, you will also face the decline of the C5 wave. Then, if you sell at a low price and buy at a high price, you will be trapped. After repeated beatings, your mentality and trading will inevitably deform.
The good news is that this trend will greatly reduce the time of bottoming out. After all, if the C5 wave falls here, the space will basically not be too different from the main decline of the C3 wave. However, if the C5 wave is really gone, the multi-index and multiple cycles will form a large-period bottom divergence structure, and the superimposed cycles will also form a resonant divergence, then it will be a signal of buying at the bottom of .
At present, it is not possible to determine whether it is a C4 wave rebound or a 4-wave rebound at the daily level, but we can judge through the exclusion method that the rebound is basically at a high probability of going to the daily 4-wave rebound for more than 6 days. On the contrary, if rises and falls back to next week, it will be the trend I most look forward to. After the C5 wave comes, and then it will form a divergence with the resonance of small cycles and large cycles, the bottoming signal here will be very certain.
To sum up, next week I prefer to rebound in C4 waves. I am not blindly optimistic to avoid everyone chasing the rise and buying at the C4 wave high. I am not pessimistic because after the low point of C5 wave appears, it is time to buy at the bottom of the full position. To put it simply, if you don’t short below 3000 points, and if you don’t chase the rise above 3100 points, this is the way to deal with it next week.
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