Q4 is on, which means that this year is about to pass. It is time for all real estate colleagues to count down to make the performance, and you can start to make the performance!
How bleak is the real estate market this year? I believe everyone sees it. When do you ask me where to start? I just want to say that is the only policy that can save the market .
Since the beginning of this year, policies of all sizes have been continuously large and small, but few have really touched the pain points of the market, so the market's reaction is mediocre. Seeing that this year is about to end, why not introduce some explosive policies to stimulate market vitality? When will you wait until now?
So just started Q4, the real estate market ushered in the first good news:
According to the latest reports, the two departments of Central Bank and Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission require six state-owned banks, including China Construction Bank , Industrial and Commercial Bank of China , Agricultural Bank of China , Bank of China , China Postal Savings Bank , and Bank of Communications, to increase support for real estate financing. Each bank provides at least 100 billion yuan in financing support this year, including mortgage loans, mortgage loans, development loans or bond purchases, etc.
That is to say, in the fourth quarter of this year, the six major banks of will provide at least 600 billion yuan in financing support to real estate . This 600 billion yuan is considered a hard indicator, and the actual implementation may continue to increase depending on the market situation.
So what changes can this 600 billion yuan bring to the market?
First show you a set of data: According to data from the China Index, as of the end of June this year, the cumulative increase in real estate loans has 0.67 trillion , less than 1/3 of the same period last year, accounting for only 4.9% of the amount of new loans, a share of the lowest in recent years. This data is very small compared to last year.
Source: China Index Data
And the 600 billion yuan added to Q4 is equivalent to so many new real estate loan shares in the first half of this year. In other words, we need to add so much financing in the first half of the year in the next three months. In this way, this figure is still very large.
So how will such a sum of money be distributed and how to spend it?
It is understood that Agricultural Bank of China tends to distribute new financing to central state-owned enterprises and leading high-quality real estate companies; Bank of China is expected to draw a certain amount of this 100 billion yuan financing to real estate companies that have not exploded.
From this point, we can also see that the differentiation of real estate companies is still continuing. Therefore, in the future, you should identify high-quality real estate companies when investing or buying a house. Not only will they be stronger in their own strength, but they will also have a bottom-line guarantee from the financial side at critical moments to avoid the occurrence of non-performing assets.
Increased financing is undoubtedly a major benefit for developers, and for consumers, does it also think so?
It can be seen that people's expectations for the future have become pessimistic. has changed significantly from "buying a house will increase value" to "not buying a house will not lose money" . In this case, "buying a house" has become an invisible investment, and the reconstruction of confidence has become the most difficult issue in the current market. I am afraid that it cannot be saved by a policy that scratches the surface.
On October 1-7, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in cities with a focus monitoring by China Index Academy fell by more than 30% compared with during the National Day holiday last year, a year-on-year decrease of 37.7% . In a few cities, such as Jinan's real estate market transactions have increased, and the performance of most cities in is still not ideal overall . This data is the result of the implementation of , one city, one policy for in various places before National Day. It can be imagined that without policy support, the results will be worse.
Source: China Index Data
At present, the real estate market this year has been quite magical all year round. If we have to look at it all year round, the purchasing environment of in the fourth quarter is obviously better than in the first three quarters. This is formed when the market turmoil is relatively stable and the high-level intervention in control.Now that 600 billion yuan has been "received", this money is crucial and may change the current market situation. The financing allocation in the next three months may also determine the scale of real estate companies in the future.
