Last week, the dollar index lowered after a rare surge. On October 7, the US non-farm employment data in September was stronger than expected, and the US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.48%, closing at 112.7950 at the end of the foreign exchange market. On October 8, the US dollar index consolidated and fell, and then traded around 112.
Financial commentator Xiao Lei analyzed that the market is worried that rate hike has caused the economy to fall into recession. In addition, the central banks of many countries have taken relevant measures, and the strong rise of the US dollar has been blocked and the US dollar has fallen rapidly.
However, then, expectations of Federal continuing to raise interest rates heated up, the US dollar counterattacked, and gold and US stocks surged and fell. The U.S. Treasury Secretary also said that the Fed bears "main responsibility" in fighting inflation.
0,000 Securities investment adviser Qu Fang analyzed that the recent dovish view of the Federal Reserve has been mainly due to the impact of the Federal Reserve on the economy. Considering that the impact of the relevant monetary policies of the Federal Reserve on the economy has been shown, and the impact on the overall economic stability has also been shown, the US dollar has shown some relatively weak performance after a sharp rise. However, due to the fact that the high inflation in the United States still exists, the Federal Reserve's major policy will not change and may be fine-tuned, so the US dollar will remain strong for a while. China Business News reporter Huang Tao
futures market
international oil prices cannot be ruled out to push up
Last week, commodity joined the group, US non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, and metal prices rebounded hindered. In addition, the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in has increased, and international gold prices are unable to rise.
Zhongyu Information market analyst Zhan Wei analyzed that coke varieties, futures fluctuated wide, and spot stocks were temporarily stable. Both coke supply and demand have weakened, and it is expected that the coke market will continue to stabilize after the holiday.
Jinlianchuang crude oil analyst Han Zhengji analyzed that during the holidays, international crude oil rebounded strongly, and OPEC+ announced a significant production cut to boost oil prices. Expectations of tight supply boosted oil prices. crude oil price continued to rise for five days and broke through the integer mark of $90 per barrel.
The fourth quarter is the traditional off-season for crude oil consumption, but there is uncertainty in both the economy and supply and demand. Overall, international oil prices should show a volatile and decline trend, but if the regional situation is tense, it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of pushing oil prices higher in a short period of time. Huashang Daily reporter Huang Tao
bond market
LPR stays still, and the bond market continues to fluctuate
Haomai Fortune Xi'an Branch senior investment consultant Zhang Bin analyzed that the recent net injection of the central bank's open market has been superimposed and restarted 14-day reverse repurchase to meet the recent capital needs of financial institutions and maintain overall market liquidity.
Loan market quotation rate (LPR) is still "standard", and the corporate loan interest rate has dropped to the lowest level since statistics. The current real interest rate is slightly lower than the potential real economic growth rate, which is at a relatively reasonable level. In order to stabilize the economy, , and restore market confidence, market interest rate levels are still expected to decline. However, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates again recently, which has certain restrictions on domestic monetary policy in the short term.
Although the recent economic data has improved, the structure is still not ideal. The investment side mainly relies on infrastructure investment to drive, and real estate sales continue to bottom out; medium- and long-term loans for residents have not been significantly restored; imports and exports are expected to remain under pressure in the future, and there is little probability of tightening monetary policy. At the same time, the package of policies to stabilize the economy and additional financial instruments and special bonds deployed by the State Council are expected to gradually exert force, and the bond market trend is expected to remain volatile in the short term. China Business News reporter Li Bin
