Continuing with the previous article, Jingyang talked with you about the changes in domestic and foreign news and policy aspects throughout September, as well as the impact of these changes on the global financial market and A-share market . In this article, let’s review the performance of the A-share market in September. Let’s see if we can find some clues about how the A-share market will operate in October!
Three, market trend: rises and falls unilaterally downward!
In fact, this year, the A-share market performed poorly overall due to the influence of domestic and foreign epidemics, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, global inflation and other factors. I experienced three sharp drops in the first five months, and it was basically a downward trend. The market rose unilaterally in May and June, and is also the best investment window this year. Starting from July, the A-share market entered a volatile downward channel again, but since the market hot spots in the first two months were still there, the lethality of the market when it was downward is not too strong.
Starting from September, all previous hot spots have cooled down, and new hot spots cannot keep up, and the pain caused by the market's surge and decline has increased significantly!
From the September operating trend of the market, it can be roughly divided into 3 stages:
1, September 1st to September 13th, during this period, the market is mainly based on fluctuations. Technically, the market rebounded after seeing the bottom of the box on September 2, and then fell after rebounding to the key pressure level of the 60-day line on September 13. It can be said that in the first half of September, A shares continued the range fluctuation trend in August, and generally ran between 3150-3300. In "September A-share market back: Resist two major risks on the outside! In the policy area, three reinforcements were strengthened to maintain stability! In the article (Part 1)", Jingyang has already given the reason. Because during this period, the non-agricultural data in the United States in August performed quite well, supporting US stock . When the US stock market strengthened, A-shares were also operating at their own pace.
2, September 14th to September 19th, during this period, the market mainly declined rapidly. From a technical perspective, the market began to decline after hitting the key pressure level of the 60-day line on September 13. On September 15, the bardo penetrated through the multi-channel moving average harness and closed below the moving average harness. On September 16, the darkness continued to fall below the lower edge of the previous box 3150, which means that a new round of downward channel has basically opened! In "September A-share market back: Resist two major risks on the outside! In the policy area, three reinforcements were strengthened to maintain stability! In the article (Part 1)", Jingyang also gave the reason. On September 13, data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that CPI rose 8.3% year-on-year in August. The data of the US CPI is still high, indicating that the Federal Reserve will still raise interest rates significantly in September! At this time, the US stock market began to turn around and fell by . The downward trend of A-shares after September 13 was obviously caused by the drag of the foreign market!
3, September 20th to September 30th, during this period, the market is mainly steadily downward. From a technical perspective, the market fell sharply downward and deviated from the 5-day line on September 19 and showed a brief pullback after it was obviously oversold. However, during the pullback, the market did not break through the 5-day line pressure level, and then it was suppressed and lowered by the 5-day line unilaterally, and continued until the closing before the festival on September 30. During this period, although A-shares still fell unilaterally, they had a few days of small positive lines and false positive lines . Based on the news, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in during this period was implemented. If it weren't for the continued drag of foreign markets, A-shares would have shown momentum to rebound. A typical example is September 23, the second day after the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike was implemented, the intraday high of A-shares actually broke through the 5-day line, but in the end it was still extremely weak and difficult to return and continue to decline.
From the overall operating trend of the market, September was a high and downward trend, falling below the August range box platform, and continued until the end of September. The market was still suppressed under the 5-day line, and the upper moving average harness had obviously short diverged, forming a wide pressure band. In addition to the pressure of the moving average system, there is also an intensified trading area of 3150-3300 in the early stage above the market. Therefore, the possibility of the market reversal and strengthening is slim!
Looking down, the current position is between 2863 from the April low point, with only 3000 points and one integer level support, and there is no other effective support level! The situation is in jeopardy.
Fourth, Market funds: Foreign capital is stable withdrew from domestic capital!
It is obviously our own stock market and the main battlefield of domestic institutional investors, but foreign capital is helping to defend the positions, which is quite embarrassing!
Let’s first look at the domestic institutions. Judging from the institutional sentiment indicators statistics from Jingyang, the main withdrawal point of domestic institutions is around August 25, which is the starting point for the cooling of track stocks. From August 25 to September 13, the buying of domestic institutional seats was mostly low, with only 4 trading days of institutional seats crossing the critical point of strength and weakness. These three days were September 1, September 6, September 7 and September 8 respectively. It is not difficult to find that these four trading days are concentrated in the first stage of the market operation mentioned above by Jingyang. Because in this stage, the market is still in the range box of 3150-3300, and it is relatively ahead of the rebound cycle, and the institutional seats are still active.
However, as the top of the 3300 box gets closer, the buying of institutional seats has not been enlarged after September 8. On September 15, the market began to break the trend downward, and institutional seats bought another step. On September 19, 23, 29 and 30, institutional buying was all below freezing point. Among them, the market fell sharply on September 19 and was oversold, and the market confidence was weak; on the 23rd, the buying of institutional seats hit a new low in the past few years. On that day, the market had a weak reversal due to the Fed's interest rate hike, indicating that the weak reversal on that day was mainly driven by retail investors and hot money funds, and institutional funds did not participate; on September 29 and September 30, the long holiday factors affected, and domestic institutions were extremely low because of concerns about foreign market variables.
Compared with domestic institutions, foreign institutions have been very good in the past month. Statistics show that in the past month, northbound funds have not only not flowed out significantly, but also have a net inflow of 4.908 billion yuan. You should know that A-shares have performed very weakly this month, and the RMB exchange rate of is still depreciating significantly. Therefore, foreign institutions have stood firm and actively bought some heavyweight stocks, or the key force that performed better than the US stocks in the A-share stage!
Five, Hot sector: The loss effect is obvious!
Different to the sharp drops in the first half of this year, almost all A-share sectors were in a weak downward state in September. We can divide market hot spots into three major parts: the first category, the remaining hot spots in August, that is, the track stocks in the early stage; the second category, the new sectors where domestic institutions participated in September; and the third category, the sectors where institutional funds did not participate in September.
Let’s first look at the first category of sectors, the track stocks that were active in August. Before August, the track stocks took the new energy vehicle industry chain (including power batteries), new energy, energy supporting facilities, semiconductors, consumer electronics, robots, etc. as the main lines. The main lines of began to experience large-scale cooling around August 25, and the entire month of September was basically fluctuating and downward. takes photovoltaics as an example. It began to decline after seeing the peak of the stage on August 19, and a repaired rebound occurred from September 1 to September 8. This period happened to be the only active period for institutional funds in September mentioned above, indicating that the rebound of track stocks is still based on institutional funds as the main driving force. However, despite this, the rebound on September 8 entered a downward channel after hitting the important pressure level of the 20-day line, and has been weakly lower since then.
The second category of is a non-track hotspot that institutions participate in, including port shipping, real estate development, natural gas , air heat pumps, camping economy, chemicals, coal, etc. Among the hot spots such as , the main line of the European energy crisis is largely the main line, and the sectors involved include natural gas, coal, port shipping, air heat pumps, chemicals, etc. However, these hot spots only withstood the fluctuations in the first half of September. Before and after the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike was implemented, as international oil prices fluctuated downward, they all turned into weak channels.
The third category of sectors is a hot sector that non-institutional participation. The relatively active topics of post-epidemics in September include scenic spots, tourism, catering, hotels, airport shipping, etc.; and pharmaceutical topics, such as traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices, etc.In terms of the post- epidemic theme, it actually performed well in most of the time in September and has always been quite resistant to declines, but there was a sharp rebound in the last few trading days of September. Logically speaking, it should be related to the National Day holiday. Before the National Day holiday, the market will short-term speculation in related sectors, and it is expected that national tourism consumption will be assisted during the Golden Week. Due to the low participation of institutional funds, only one branch of the camping economy has sufficient funds to intervene, and there is not much participation of institutions in other sectors. Therefore, before the long holiday, hot money left the market early, causing the entire theme to fall. In terms of pharmaceutical stocks, the early September adjustments followed the market, and strengthened against the trend in the last few trading days of September, with a small amount of institutional funds participating. The rebound of pharmaceutical stocks is related to the valuation bottom, but at present, the intervention of institutional funds is not too strong. Whether there is any chance after the holiday needs to be followed.
Apart from these sectors being relatively active, other sectors were very weak throughout September. It is not difficult to find out from this that the most active sectors are in the downward channel, and other directions will only be worse.
Due to space reasons, Jingyang used two articles to summarize the A-share market in September. These two articles start from several perspectives such as domestic and foreign market news, capital and market. Judging from the final result, as of the end of September, the peripheral market was still weak, the A-share market's capital performance was poor, and the technical side was in a unilateral downward state. If it weren't for the domestic policy and macroeconomic fundamentals that were resisting, the A-share market's decline might have been even greater!
After reviewing the market in the past January, we can find that the key negative for causing A-shares to break the previous box downside is that the external market is too weak. Therefore, whether A-shares will stabilize and rebound or continue their weakness in October depends on whether there will be variables in the external market and the results of the domestic and foreign macro-regulation game! It is worth noting that during the National Day holiday, some new changes have occurred in the peripheral market, and Jingyang will analyze it with everyone tomorrow!
