After humans experienced several rounds of fighting for the status of world hegemony and using tanks, aircraft and even nuclear weapon to support their views, the mainstream views of the whole world finally tend to be moderate and compromise: the country is important, but relying solely on state control and no market to allocate resources, the economy will inevitably lack vitality, and eventually the national power will also be exhausted. The collapse of the Soviet Union is a typical case of oligopoly monopolizing capital.
market is indeed very efficient, but without the norms and constraints of national power, the market order and market structure are difficult to maintain themselves. The frequent financial crises and economic crises are proof of this. Dutch Tulip bubble is the first recorded financial bubble in human history. Western society is now deeply involved in risk events such as energy crisis, , epidemic abuse, inflation, , Russian-Ukrainian war, financial crisis, etc.
In the words in " University ", it is summarized as follows: things have their roots and ends, and things have their beginnings and ends. If you know the order and future, then you will be in a short way.
The spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic around the world has further increased the complexity and uncertainty of Sino-US trade frictions. Against this background, China has clarified its core interests, faced conflicts directly, insisted on deepening reform and opening up, and especially responded to policy opening.
1. China has gone from "standing up" to "get rich"
United States Trump During the administration, China was regarded as the "number one competitor". The United States deals with the growing political, economic and military competition it is facing around the world. The Biden administration provoked the Russian-Ukrainian conflict with public opinion war, which made American arms dealers make a fortune. Due to the incident of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, Sino-US relations have fallen to a historical low. China, Russia and other countries are challenging the strength, influence and interests of the United States.
In the eyes of American hawks, the problem is not that China is rising, the United States is declining, nor that there is no Thucydides trap at all. The problem is that China has a grand strategy to build an tribute system with China as the hegemony in the world.
Made in China 2025, the "Belt and Road" initiative, and the South China Sea policy, from "China's system" to "China's governance", China finally gained a leading position in the field of technology, especially the field of advanced technology in 5G to replace the United States.
Americans are particularly concerned about 5G, preventing Huawei from entering the United States, but Huawei has entered nearly 70 countries around the world and has signed more than 50 5G commercial contracts worldwide. Huawei's 5G patent is the world's largest. Recently, India's largest communications operator Bharti Airtel is now the communications company with the largest number of MIMO microwaves deployed by Huawei worldwide, with a 20% reduction in power consumption. The Indian government is considering whether to allow Huawei to promote the use of MIMO technology and sell 5G network equipment in its country.
The deterioration of Sino-US relations is not only related to China's rise, but also to US domestic politics. In the past few decades, the blue-collar class in the United States has not fully shared the benefits of globalization, and its income has stagnated and even deteriorated. The middle class has been hollowed out, the gap between the rich and the poor has become increasingly wide, and the people's dissatisfaction with the traditional elite class has risen unprecedentedly.
As a real estate developer, Trump took advantage of this anti-establishment sentiment of the people and took over the presidency. His motive for the trade war is neither to encircle China nor to reduce the trade deficit, but to find an excuse to collect some tariffs to make up for the federal fiscal deficit in order to maintain its core political achievement of domestic tax cuts.
Trump's anti-globalization behavior actually really opened a window of major strategic opportunities for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The essence of the political economy of the empire is leverage , and what Trump does is to let the US empire take the initiative to deleverage. He attacked the whole world with a suicide madness, and used his complacent breaks of promise to create uncertainty to gain the short-term benefits of negotiations, and used various withdrawals and reversals to make this era mark.
The American hawks against China are also populists in the United States. They are both anti-China and oppose the traditional American elite, especially the Wall Street Financial Group.Their attacks on China are also to suppress their political opponents and strengthen their position in domestic politics. Traditional elite groups also need to draw a clear line with China in order to get rid of their passive position in domestic political struggles.
The essence of the Sino-US conflict is the contradiction between emerging powers that are comparable to its strength on the international stage and hegemonic countries that strive to maintain their hegemony.
of that year, although Spartan defeated the challenger Athens, both of them had to surrender to the foreign country Macedonia . After the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was no significant difference between Russia and the United States in terms of ideology and social systems, but the confrontation between the two countries had no fundamental change in the Cold War period.
Now China ranks second in the world in terms of economic size, and China has no intention of changing the international order dominated by the United States, and there is no major strategy to achieve hegemony. China advocates the "Belt and Road" to realize a community with a shared future for mankind, make the sky bluer and people happier!
2. Opportunities for globalization in the new era
If we count from the beginning of the European voyage, broad globalization has been running slowly and tortuously for 500 years. Globalization in narrow sense refers specifically to neoliberal globalization advocated by the United States and Britain in 1979. Its core content is to advocate that countries around the world open up their current account and capital account, reduce controls and taxes, and allow the market to play the core allocation role of various elements on a global scale.
500 years of the theme of the fate of all mankind is that the global market system gradually swallows up and integrates the population and regions around the system. This theme needs to be achieved through the commercial or force expansion of several hegemonic countries.
Originally, the sudden rise of commercial empires of million-population levels such as Portugal and the Netherlands, and then the destiny was transferred to their neighbors: Britain, France, and Germany, and then to the latter's relatives: the United States and the Soviet Union, with a population of millions.
The power transfer trajectory caused by innovation and diffusion continues, and due to the acceleration of knowledge diffusion in the information age, countries with a population of 1 billion will be on the stage of history faster.
Go back to 500 years of global economic and trade history. The bold deficit and generous imports shown in the US foreign economic policy from 1979 to 2008 are actually not abnormal. Instead, they have a series of specific conditions in the fields of politics, currency, and thought. They are narrowly globalized, and sustainability depends on the stability of these conditions.
Globalization is a historic trend that is accompanied by the rise and fall of dominant empires, with twists and turns, with advances and retreats. After the global financial crisis in 2008, credit bankruptcy caused the globalization of American , and the era of anti-globalization is quietly coming. The US financial sector, the culprit, was not punished, but instead earned more dividends with the help of quantitative easing, which triggered general dissatisfaction among other classes.
In 2016, when the white and blue-collar group tried to express their dissatisfaction and change their destiny with the votes given by democracy, political events such as Brexit and Trump's victory occurred.
In the American globalization system based on US dollar credit and the US consumer market, all the progress and efforts of other economies make the purchasing power of the US dollar stronger, and the creation of US dollar credit is infinite. The real beneficiary of credit expansion is the United States.
Therefore, as long as this system continues to operate, other countries will not be able to truly surpass the United States in scale and quality. This is determined by the structure and division of labor mechanism of the global game.
After the Second World War , whether it was the Soviet Union, Japan or EU , its economic scale and competitiveness could not surpass the United States. This is the reason.
As we all know, China is one of the winners in the era of globalization. Because of this, people who are looking for sword-like thinking are worried that if globalization reverses, it will be greatly detrimental to China's continued rise.
China's success is to keep pace with the times, be determined to reform, and to make a blacksmith strong, not to develop with the help of the United States.
After humans experienced several rounds of fighting for the status of world hegemony and using tanks, aircraft and even nuclear weapon to support their views, the mainstream views of the whole world finally tend to be moderate and compromise: the country is important, but relying solely on state control and no market to allocate resources, the economy will inevitably lack vitality, and eventually the national power will also be exhausted. The collapse of the Soviet Union is a typical case of oligopoly monopolizing capital.
market is indeed very efficient, but without the norms and constraints of national power, the market order and market structure are difficult to maintain themselves. The frequent financial crises and economic crises are proof of this. Dutch Tulip bubble is the first recorded financial bubble in human history. Western society is now deeply involved in risk events such as energy crisis, , epidemic abuse, inflation, , Russian-Ukrainian war, financial crisis, etc.
In the words in " University ", it is summarized as follows: things have their roots and ends, and things have their beginnings and ends. If you know the order and future, then you will be in a short way.
The spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic around the world has further increased the complexity and uncertainty of Sino-US trade frictions. Against this background, China has clarified its core interests, faced conflicts directly, insisted on deepening reform and opening up, and especially responded to policy opening.
1. China has gone from "standing up" to "get rich"
United States Trump During the administration, China was regarded as the "number one competitor". The United States deals with the growing political, economic and military competition it is facing around the world. The Biden administration provoked the Russian-Ukrainian conflict with public opinion war, which made American arms dealers make a fortune. Due to the incident of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, Sino-US relations have fallen to a historical low. China, Russia and other countries are challenging the strength, influence and interests of the United States.
In the eyes of American hawks, the problem is not that China is rising, the United States is declining, nor that there is no Thucydides trap at all. The problem is that China has a grand strategy to build an tribute system with China as the hegemony in the world.
Made in China 2025, the "Belt and Road" initiative, and the South China Sea policy, from "China's system" to "China's governance", China finally gained a leading position in the field of technology, especially the field of advanced technology in 5G to replace the United States.
Americans are particularly concerned about 5G, preventing Huawei from entering the United States, but Huawei has entered nearly 70 countries around the world and has signed more than 50 5G commercial contracts worldwide. Huawei's 5G patent is the world's largest. Recently, India's largest communications operator Bharti Airtel is now the communications company with the largest number of MIMO microwaves deployed by Huawei worldwide, with a 20% reduction in power consumption. The Indian government is considering whether to allow Huawei to promote the use of MIMO technology and sell 5G network equipment in its country.
The deterioration of Sino-US relations is not only related to China's rise, but also to US domestic politics. In the past few decades, the blue-collar class in the United States has not fully shared the benefits of globalization, and its income has stagnated and even deteriorated. The middle class has been hollowed out, the gap between the rich and the poor has become increasingly wide, and the people's dissatisfaction with the traditional elite class has risen unprecedentedly.
As a real estate developer, Trump took advantage of this anti-establishment sentiment of the people and took over the presidency. His motive for the trade war is neither to encircle China nor to reduce the trade deficit, but to find an excuse to collect some tariffs to make up for the federal fiscal deficit in order to maintain its core political achievement of domestic tax cuts.
Trump's anti-globalization behavior actually really opened a window of major strategic opportunities for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The essence of the political economy of the empire is leverage , and what Trump does is to let the US empire take the initiative to deleverage. He attacked the whole world with a suicide madness, and used his complacent breaks of promise to create uncertainty to gain the short-term benefits of negotiations, and used various withdrawals and reversals to make this era mark.
The American hawks against China are also populists in the United States. They are both anti-China and oppose the traditional American elite, especially the Wall Street Financial Group.Their attacks on China are also to suppress their political opponents and strengthen their position in domestic politics. Traditional elite groups also need to draw a clear line with China in order to get rid of their passive position in domestic political struggles.
The essence of the Sino-US conflict is the contradiction between emerging powers that are comparable to its strength on the international stage and hegemonic countries that strive to maintain their hegemony.
of that year, although Spartan defeated the challenger Athens, both of them had to surrender to the foreign country Macedonia . After the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was no significant difference between Russia and the United States in terms of ideology and social systems, but the confrontation between the two countries had no fundamental change in the Cold War period.
Now China ranks second in the world in terms of economic size, and China has no intention of changing the international order dominated by the United States, and there is no major strategy to achieve hegemony. China advocates the "Belt and Road" to realize a community with a shared future for mankind, make the sky bluer and people happier!
2. Opportunities for globalization in the new era
If we count from the beginning of the European voyage, broad globalization has been running slowly and tortuously for 500 years. Globalization in narrow sense refers specifically to neoliberal globalization advocated by the United States and Britain in 1979. Its core content is to advocate that countries around the world open up their current account and capital account, reduce controls and taxes, and allow the market to play the core allocation role of various elements on a global scale.
500 years of the theme of the fate of all mankind is that the global market system gradually swallows up and integrates the population and regions around the system. This theme needs to be achieved through the commercial or force expansion of several hegemonic countries.
Originally, the sudden rise of commercial empires of million-population levels such as Portugal and the Netherlands, and then the destiny was transferred to their neighbors: Britain, France, and Germany, and then to the latter's relatives: the United States and the Soviet Union, with a population of millions.
The power transfer trajectory caused by innovation and diffusion continues, and due to the acceleration of knowledge diffusion in the information age, countries with a population of 1 billion will be on the stage of history faster.
Go back to 500 years of global economic and trade history. The bold deficit and generous imports shown in the US foreign economic policy from 1979 to 2008 are actually not abnormal. Instead, they have a series of specific conditions in the fields of politics, currency, and thought. They are narrowly globalized, and sustainability depends on the stability of these conditions.
Globalization is a historic trend that is accompanied by the rise and fall of dominant empires, with twists and turns, with advances and retreats. After the global financial crisis in 2008, credit bankruptcy caused the globalization of American , and the era of anti-globalization is quietly coming. The US financial sector, the culprit, was not punished, but instead earned more dividends with the help of quantitative easing, which triggered general dissatisfaction among other classes.
In 2016, when the white and blue-collar group tried to express their dissatisfaction and change their destiny with the votes given by democracy, political events such as Brexit and Trump's victory occurred.
In the American globalization system based on US dollar credit and the US consumer market, all the progress and efforts of other economies make the purchasing power of the US dollar stronger, and the creation of US dollar credit is infinite. The real beneficiary of credit expansion is the United States.
Therefore, as long as this system continues to operate, other countries will not be able to truly surpass the United States in scale and quality. This is determined by the structure and division of labor mechanism of the global game.
After the Second World War , whether it was the Soviet Union, Japan or EU , its economic scale and competitiveness could not surpass the United States. This is the reason.
As we all know, China is one of the winners in the era of globalization. Because of this, people who are looking for sword-like thinking are worried that if globalization reverses, it will be greatly detrimental to China's continued rise.
China's success is to keep pace with the times, be determined to reform, and to make a blacksmith strong, not to develop with the help of the United States.
From a macro perspective, over the past 30 years, China's national strength and national wealth have increased dramatically, and its international status has also improved greatly. Compared with all other major countries, China's national strength has risen the fastest and most powerful. Such an objective fact means that China has definitely done something crucial right in recent years.
In the era of globalization, China is carrying out reform and opening up, and learning from the West about industrial revolution and market economy . The opening up at that time was to open up to the United States and its allies.
Nowadays, the times change. China must further deepen reform and opening up in the areas along the "Belt and Road". This is the self-improvement and independent exploration of the socialist market economic system. Only with a market can there be economic development, and only with science and technology that benefit mankind can we build a community with a shared future for mankind. The opening up of the new era is "openness that is mainly me and globally oriented".
There are flowers in spring and moon in autumn, cool breeze in summer and snow in winter. As long as we deal with it properly, keep pace with the times, and be a Chinese in the 21st century, it is difficult but proud. The trend of world historical evolution, the characteristics of the contemporary Chinese system, and the huge potential that China already has are strategic opportunities in the new era.
3. Internationalization of RMB
1949 China has studied the Soviet Union in the first 30 years and the United States in the last 30 years, integrating the mobilization function of omnipotence with the resource allocation function of the free market. As an ordinary Chinese, while enjoying the advantages of the two systems, they also have to endure the disadvantages of the two systems. This is the pain that accompanies the coming of a new life.
Through more than 30 years of rapid growth and persistent accumulation, China has already possessed economic strength rare in the world. The "three foreign routes" policy combination of foreign investment, foreign trade and foreign exchange policies, coupled with huge domestic investment, has brought China's economy to the fast lane of rapid rise.
If it were not for joining the WTO, and not for attracting foreign investment, China's reform process would be many times more difficult.
stabilizes RMB exchange rate at a lower position. It is one of the key contents of the "three-outside route". The RMB-USD exchange rate exchange rate , as the most important price leverage , has shaped the basic appearance of China's foreign economic relations , leveraged the transnational flow of capital and commodities, and promoted the historical process of China's integration into the world market system.
China had been seriously short of foreign exchange before the mid-1980s. Foreign capital enters. Due to the forced foreign exchange settlement system, foreign exchange as capital must be sold to the bank in exchange for a certain amount of RMB, and then operate in China.
Not only capital, but also most of the profits generated by foreign capital exports are exchanged for RMB. The result is that the Chinese government quickly accumulated the world's largest official foreign exchange reserves, and according to the estimates of some domestic scholars, the vast majority of foreign exchange sources are foreign-funded enterprises. 
It has always been inaccurate that China's foreign exchange reserves are the hard-earned money of the whole Chinese people. China's foreign exchange reserves are mainly money from international capitalists attracted by the blood and sweat of the whole Chinese people, which is more appropriate.
China's Bureau of Foreign Exchange is equivalent to the valuables storage counter at the entrance of the National Grand Theater. The gold, silver and treasures of the dignitaries entering the theater are stored in that counter. Of course, the subtle difference here is that the valuable storage is obliged to return all the storage to the guests intact, but the China Administration of Foreign Exchange does not enforce the obligation to do so, especially when the audience members of the Grand Theater collectively exit.
Foreign capital enjoys various discounts in China and has good profitability. Conservatively estimated, it is at least 10% annual rate of return. Considering the compound interest effect brought about by reinvestment, its assets double every 7 years. This real rate of return is even higher if we take into account the long-term appreciation trend of the RMB against the US dollar, and the huge premiums of the land and equity assets they acquire at low prices over the years.
China's left hand attracts foreign investment, allowing them to earn 10%; the foreign exchange investment that will be kept on behalf of the right hand, and the income is close to 0. The two subtractions are equivalent to China's net profit of related funds contributed to external economies every year.
By the end of 2014, the US$4 trillion foreign exchange reserves in China's foreign exchange reserves could not be regarded as "the hard-earned money of the Chinese people", but the total balance accumulated by the principal and interest of foreign capital over the years, losing about US$400 billion in actual value each year. According to per capita sharing, it is equivalent to every Chinese giving away wealth equivalent to about RMB 2,000 to the "international community" every year.
The world market system dominated by the United States can no longer hold on. The cycle model of "China's production, US consumption, China lending, and US borrowing" is no longer sustainable, and the Obama administration of the United States has clearly announced that it will seek to implement a "rebalancing" of the global economy. Against this background, the need to adjust the "three external routes" is becoming increasingly prominent.
has entered the 21st century, especially with the continuous changes in the international and domestic economic and political environment, the "Three Foreign Routes" have begun to be revised. The GDP number is no longer used as the criterion for judgment of policy achievements, but instead, the overall welfare of the Chinese people is developed with the default economic "growth" concept.
From July 21, 2005, the RMB no longer anchored the US dollar, starting a long and gradual appreciation process. By December 2014, the nominal exchange rate of against the US dollar, , had accumulated a cumulative appreciation of about 35%. Such appreciation has slowed down to a certain extent the price of domestic production factors is underestimated, which is conducive to the improvement of domestic people's livelihood and industrial upgrading.
In the process of industrialization, the most important thing is not technology or equipment, or even capital, but market demand. For a developing country in , the most important thing is to find a factor endowment that suits you, develop a competitive industry in the market, and find a huge market as the first driving force of the economic cycle. With this industry and market to drive the economy, the industrial investment derived from it will have economic significance.
Exports to the outside world did not contribute much to the growth of China's GDP, but it has found a landing point for large-scale investment in China. As a result, China's economy took off with a bang.
China's general direction towards the central system determines that we must ultimately push the RMB to internationalization. Only strong politics can create a strong currency.
Currency is power. Whether it is a fixed exchange rate system, floating exchange rate system, , or other intermediate systems, there is no difference between good and bad, but its impact on the interests of different groups of people in one country or even multiple countries varies greatly.
The currency exchange rate issue has never been a simple economic problem, but is often mixed with a large number of international and domestic political struggles related to the distribution of interests. Finance is also subject to political needs.
The benefits of RMB internationalization: obtain considerable seigniorship income; save foreign exchange reserve costs; reduce exchange rate risk in China's foreign trade and investment, serve and expand foreign trade and investment; when necessary, it can be used as a lever for rapid large-scale financing, and transfer macroeconomic risks to the outside world. It is a key step for China to move towards the central position of the world market system and is therefore a political necessity.
There are also negative costs and risks to the internationalization of the RMB: the risk of RMB appreciation and the resulting crowding out effect on some low-end industries ; there is the risk of economic bubbles, and the soaring asset bubbles such as stock prices and house prices may lead to excessive influx of external funds, and then retreat on a large scale after the expected reversal, thereby amplifying the exchange rate fluctuations of the RMB or the scale of short-term cross-border capital flows; after the internationalization of the RMB reaches a certain level, the country's monetary policy will be affected to a certain extent by the overseas currency stock.
Internationalization of RMB itself is actually not difficult, because it only requires "sending money" to the outside world (whether by purchasing goods and services from other countries or investing in other countries), and giving money is always easier than making money.
After the global financial crisis in 2008, the global financial market was in turmoil, and the turmoil and restructuring of the global currency structure gave the RMB the opportunity to take advantage of the momentum.
China itself has accumulated enough economic strength and has reached a certain level on the ladder of industrialization, so it has a good local foundation to promote the internationalization of the RMB.
In different functional areas such as trade pricing, settlement and storage value, the share of the US dollar has been stable at 60%. Asia itself does not have an international currency commensurate with its economic status, which is equivalent to Asia giving up its currency share to the United States.
Central Bank released the "2022 RMB Internationalization Report": In 2021, the total cross-border RMB collection and payment amount of banks on behalf of customers was 36.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, and the payment amount reached a record high. The cross-border RMB revenue and expenditure were generally balanced, with a total net inflow of 404.47 billion yuan throughout the year. In May 2022, International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the weight of RMB in special draw rights (SDR) from 10.92% to 12.28%, reflecting the recognition of the increased free use of RMB.
RMB internationalization and capital project opening are two aspects of a coin. Reform and opening up are the two wheels of China's economic construction, and we must always adhere to the dual-wheel drive. The full opening of capital accounts in 2020 is obviously due to the strength of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, giving the central bank confidence and courage.
(The picture is from the Internet, infringement must be deleted)
By the end of 2014, the US$4 trillion foreign exchange reserves in China's foreign exchange reserves could not be regarded as "the hard-earned money of the Chinese people", but the total balance accumulated by the principal and interest of foreign capital over the years, losing about US$400 billion in actual value each year. According to per capita sharing, it is equivalent to every Chinese giving away wealth equivalent to about RMB 2,000 to the "international community" every year.
The world market system dominated by the United States can no longer hold on. The cycle model of "China's production, US consumption, China lending, and US borrowing" is no longer sustainable, and the Obama administration of the United States has clearly announced that it will seek to implement a "rebalancing" of the global economy. Against this background, the need to adjust the "three external routes" is becoming increasingly prominent.
has entered the 21st century, especially with the continuous changes in the international and domestic economic and political environment, the "Three Foreign Routes" have begun to be revised. The GDP number is no longer used as the criterion for judgment of policy achievements, but instead, the overall welfare of the Chinese people is developed with the default economic "growth" concept.
From July 21, 2005, the RMB no longer anchored the US dollar, starting a long and gradual appreciation process. By December 2014, the nominal exchange rate of against the US dollar, , had accumulated a cumulative appreciation of about 35%. Such appreciation has slowed down to a certain extent the price of domestic production factors is underestimated, which is conducive to the improvement of domestic people's livelihood and industrial upgrading.
In the process of industrialization, the most important thing is not technology or equipment, or even capital, but market demand. For a developing country in , the most important thing is to find a factor endowment that suits you, develop a competitive industry in the market, and find a huge market as the first driving force of the economic cycle. With this industry and market to drive the economy, the industrial investment derived from it will have economic significance.
Exports to the outside world did not contribute much to the growth of China's GDP, but it has found a landing point for large-scale investment in China. As a result, China's economy took off with a bang.
China's general direction towards the central system determines that we must ultimately push the RMB to internationalization. Only strong politics can create a strong currency.
Currency is power. Whether it is a fixed exchange rate system, floating exchange rate system, , or other intermediate systems, there is no difference between good and bad, but its impact on the interests of different groups of people in one country or even multiple countries varies greatly.
The currency exchange rate issue has never been a simple economic problem, but is often mixed with a large number of international and domestic political struggles related to the distribution of interests. Finance is also subject to political needs.
The benefits of RMB internationalization: obtain considerable seigniorship income; save foreign exchange reserve costs; reduce exchange rate risk in China's foreign trade and investment, serve and expand foreign trade and investment; when necessary, it can be used as a lever for rapid large-scale financing, and transfer macroeconomic risks to the outside world. It is a key step for China to move towards the central position of the world market system and is therefore a political necessity.
There are also negative costs and risks to the internationalization of the RMB: the risk of RMB appreciation and the resulting crowding out effect on some low-end industries ; there is the risk of economic bubbles, and the soaring asset bubbles such as stock prices and house prices may lead to excessive influx of external funds, and then retreat on a large scale after the expected reversal, thereby amplifying the exchange rate fluctuations of the RMB or the scale of short-term cross-border capital flows; after the internationalization of the RMB reaches a certain level, the country's monetary policy will be affected to a certain extent by the overseas currency stock.
Internationalization of RMB itself is actually not difficult, because it only requires "sending money" to the outside world (whether by purchasing goods and services from other countries or investing in other countries), and giving money is always easier than making money.
After the global financial crisis in 2008, the global financial market was in turmoil, and the turmoil and restructuring of the global currency structure gave the RMB the opportunity to take advantage of the momentum.
China itself has accumulated enough economic strength and has reached a certain level on the ladder of industrialization, so it has a good local foundation to promote the internationalization of the RMB.
In different functional areas such as trade pricing, settlement and storage value, the share of the US dollar has been stable at 60%. Asia itself does not have an international currency commensurate with its economic status, which is equivalent to Asia giving up its currency share to the United States.
Central Bank released the "2022 RMB Internationalization Report": In 2021, the total cross-border RMB collection and payment amount of banks on behalf of customers was 36.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, and the payment amount reached a record high. The cross-border RMB revenue and expenditure were generally balanced, with a total net inflow of 404.47 billion yuan throughout the year. In May 2022, International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the weight of RMB in special draw rights (SDR) from 10.92% to 12.28%, reflecting the recognition of the increased free use of RMB.
RMB internationalization and capital project opening are two aspects of a coin. Reform and opening up are the two wheels of China's economic construction, and we must always adhere to the dual-wheel drive. The full opening of capital accounts in 2020 is obviously due to the strength of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, giving the central bank confidence and courage.
(The picture is from the Internet, infringement must be deleted)
