On the first trading day after the holiday, everyone did not wait for the red envelope, but the continued decline of 3,000 points was waiting. This is also the second time that market has fallen below 3,000 points this year. If it weren't for the large financial sectors' resistance to declines, market , I'm afraid the index will fall even more.
In the last few days of the long holiday, Jingyang and everyone analyzed the main changes in the foreign market and domestic policy during the holiday. In the article, Jingyang pointed out that the market is most worried about the US non-agricultural data in September, and there will be no worries about the Federal Reserve's sharp hike in 211. It is precisely because of this that last Friday night, the last trading day of the National Day holiday, major European and American stock indexes weakened sharply again. Among them, the Nasdaq index fell by 3.8%, approaching its pre-holiday low. If panic continues to spread, Nasdaq may break a new low first.
This expectation is also the key to the weakening of A shares today, but Jingyang wants to remind everyone to pay attention to the performance of today's foreign exchange market. Today, neither the dollar index nor the RMB exchange rate did not continue the trend last Friday. The US dollar index showed a narrow fluctuation of and did not continue to rise sharply; the offshore RMB appreciated slightly. If the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate in the next few days, from a pattern perspective, it will form a stage of double top , which may mean that the current round of depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will come to an end for the time being!
We know that the main reason for this round of A-shares is the depreciation of the RMB caused by the strong US dollar. If the RMB stabilizes, A-shares will naturally not be far from the bottom of the stage. So in the next few days, we will continue to keep a close eye on the market, so it is better to pay more attention to the exchange rate market. Let’s see if the RMB can be stabilized at its current position?
In Jingyang's view, this is not just a few sets of economic data, but it is also a game between the top leaders of the two countries' macro-tuning !
The United States has just mentioned that the non-agricultural data in September performed well and the domestic economy is good. Whether the Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply in early November is the September CPI data that will be disclosed in mid-October. If inflation drops low, there is a high probability that a sharp rate hike will continue in November. , judging from the current situation, global inflation problems have not been effectively resolved during this period, which indicates that the CPI data in September may not be too good. What is even more embarrassing is that some economists have pointed out that the dependence of the U.S. inflation level on interest rates has dropped to 0%. In other words, The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cannot control the cooling of inflation.
In my country, the macro adjustment cycle is completely mismatched with the United States. While the United States has tightened its credit significantly, we are still in a state of loose credit to stimulate the domestic economy to accelerate recovery. In terms of the exchange rate -related regulatory policies, the central bank lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio in mid-September, which has stabilized the RMB exchange rate and does not break the 7 yuan integer threshold. However, it still fell below and the lowest reached around 7.26. As the RMB exchange rate fell below the psychological base price of 7.1, the central bank's attitude began to become extremely firm. At the end of September, it stated many times that "the foreign exchange market is of great importance, and maintaining stability is the first priority." And warned the short forces of the RMB. It is also this warning that has stopped the RMB exchange rate around 7.26 and started to rebound.
However, the capital market is always forgetful. The central bank warned to short for the last time. Half a month has passed since the RMB exchange rate has also shown a trend of depreciating after appreciation. So how to move the exchange rate in the future lies in two points: 1. Does the central bank of my country have any subsequent regulatory measures? In Jingyang's view, there must be some. As long as the exchange rate does not stop falling, the intensity of stabilizing the exchange rate will definitely become increasingly greater; 2. The US September CPI data, this set of data was released in mid-October, and there are not many trading days before now.
Because the important uncertainty factors are not clear, the global capital market, including A-shares, dare not act rashly, especially long funds, and will not buy the bottom of at will!
After talking about the general trend, I will share with you a few positive sectors. Although it is not the time to enter the market, you can still keep an eye on it because these sectors may be the main direction of the market after the market stops falling!
1, the US energy giant's profit in a single quarter hits the highest in history! The Russian presidential secretary said that the United States made a fortune and sold natural gas at 4 times the price! Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the show on the 9th, "Americans are making money now, they are making money because they sell natural gas at 3 times and 4 times the price. Europeans pay them while also making their country's economy lose its competitiveness."
Due to restrictions on energy sanctions on Russia and the recent leak of the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline, Europe has to buy a large amount of high-priced energy from the United States. The United States even regards the "North Stream" leakage as a "big opportunity" to increase natural gas prices and sales. Faced with high natural gas prices, German Vice Premier Habeck accused some countries, including the United States, of charging too high natural gas fees to Germany.
To be honest, Jingyang doesn’t quite understand why Europeans have to be unable to get along with themselves, but the actual situation now is that the distance between Russia and Europe is getting farther and farther. After losing Russia, the United States became the main supplier of natural gas in Europe. In this seller market, it is conceivable how difficult it is to reduce the price in the United States. At least the price of natural gas cannot fall this winter. has many opportunities for in the A-share market. The front row is the natural gas sector and some heating equipment, and a little behind it, and some high-energy consumption chemical and metal products dominated by Europe.
2, the largest scale in the history of European outbreaks avian influenza , domestic pig prices continue to rise! These are two things, but they both point to the breeding sector of the A-share market, one is chicken and the other is pork, which is also the sector leading the trend today. In Jingyang's view, the driving factors for the strengthening of these two sectors are different. European avian influenza is an event-based driver and has no particularly obvious driving force for domestic poultry farming, so the sector lacks fundamental support. But the situation in the pork sector is different.
In today's "A-share news", Jingyang also mentioned that the domestic pig market after October 1 seems to be "rocketing", setting a new high for the year every day. February and March this year are the starting point of the pig cycle. It has been around for about 7 months, and pork prices have risen sharply. Since the financial reports of related companies are still in the last quarter, the performance of pig companies will be significantly restored starting from the third quarter report. According to industry forecasts, in the short term, since the difficulty of purchasing pigs by slaughtering companies continues to exist, pork prices still have momentum to rise!
is obvious that the rebound of the pork sector is supported by fundamentals. However, institutional funds have not entered the market during this period, so we ordinary investors cannot blindly follow up. But if institutions follow this sector in the future, then the probability of trending is still relatively high. After all, pig cycle has been launched for so long, and the entire sector has not seen a decent rebound.
3, for the first time in ten years, the price of fluorite has exceeded the ceiling! After the National Day holiday in 2022, the fluorite industry seems to be injecting a heart-warming agent, and various companies are setting off a wave of price increases. With the improvement of demand in the traditional refrigerant industry and the driving force of the new energy industry, fluorite has successfully broken through the price ceiling of 3,000 yuan/ton over the past 10 years, and the quotations of some companies have reached 3,200-3,300 yuan/ton.
Fluorite, also known as fluorite , is the crystals of calcium fluoride and the main source of chemical fluorine elements. In the past 10 years, fluorite has been stable below 3,000 yuan/ton, which is related to the relatively stable downstream demand. However, this supply and demand pattern has begun to slowly change.On the supply side, mining companies face increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements, which leads to insufficient start-up of fluorite mines; in addition, the north is about to enter the winter suspension stage, which may also lead to a decrease in the supply of fluorite products in the fourth quarter. On the demand side, the competition for refrigerant quota is about to end, which is one of the main basis for the price increase of the industrial chain. In addition, fluorine chemical is increasingly used in new energy, military industry and other fields, which is the second basis for price increase.
Usually, the biggest benefit of the resource sector is product price increase, especially for products that have not raised prices for a long time and then enter a significant price increase cycle. The marginal increase in profits of related companies will be quite obvious!
Finally, Jingyang emphasized to you one more thing, and shared these sections with you, not to let everyone come in and chase after you now. We still have to wait until the market stops falling before talking about it. The market remains weak on one side, and no one can stand against the trend!
