Domestic oil prices have experienced 6 downs and 2 ups in the past four months. The prices of gasoline and diesel fell by 1415 and 1365 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, and fell by 1.1-1.17 yuan/liter in retail, the worst decline since March 2020. Even so, the rise of oil prices this year has not been completely offset. Fortunately, the new round of oil price statistics has shown a downward trend again, and the current decline has more than doubled compared with the first working day. If nothing unexpected happens, oil prices will still be lowered.
As of the fifth statistical window, the average price of crude oil fell by 33 cents to US$83.72 per barrel, with a comprehensive change rate of -5.65%. The corresponding price adjustment amount is expected to fall by 160 yuan/ton. In terms of retail, the prices of gasoline and diesel have been reduced by about 0.13-0.14 yuan/liter. As the holiday is approaching, the statistical cycle of this round of oil price has been relatively extended and will not start until October 10.
September 22 The first day of the start of the Japanese oil price adjustment statistics, the adjustment amount recorded a decline of 70 yuan/ton. Subsequently, due to the negative contraction of the crude oil change rate, the decline decreased by 10 yuan per ton on the second day. Because the adjustment amount is very close to the adjustment red line of 50 yuan/ton, the expectation of oil price reduction was once in danger. Starting from the third working day, the adjustment amount has been falling continuously. So far, the decline has reached 150 yuan/ton on the fifth working day. As the decline gradually increases, the possibility of oil price reduction is also rising.
However, considering that the oil price adjustment will not start until the 10th of next month, there are still 8 trading windows for the crude oil market. At the same time, international oil prices have been on the rise since Tuesday and are constantly turning red. The current decline in the amount may not be enough to lock in the lowering of this oil price adjustment. What needs to be paid attention to in the crude oil market is that next week (October 5) the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies' crude oil production decisions, and it is reported that Russia may propose that OPEC+ cut production by 1 million barrels per day. Iraq Oil Minister Jabbar also said that OPEC+ is closely monitoring the trend of oil prices, saying that he does not want oil prices to rise or fall excessively, and hopes that the oil market can maintain a balance.
The recent decline in oil prices is mainly affected by the global economic outlook, including slowing economic growth and rising inflation.
September 5th OPEC+ decided to reduce its production quota in October (100,000 barrels per day), saying that market uncertainty has led to fluctuations in oil prices, hoping to maintain the stability of the oil market. Erlan, a senior market analyst at the online commodity broker Wanda, said that OPEC+ production cuts are symbolic and mainly expressing its willingness to take action to deal with the market.
The current wave of international oil prices began in May 2020, precisely because OPEC+ reached a production cut of 9.7 million barrels per day at that time. Although the production cut of 1 million barrels per day is not too much compared to this production cut of 1 million barrels per day, global demand has improved significantly, and OPEC+'s oil production has not fully returned to normal. Once it is reached, it may bring a strong boost to crude oil prices.
Today, September 29, gasoline prices at gas stations in the country, 92 and 95,
