The financial real estate industry has always been the most controversial sector in the market in recent years, and there are quite a lot of differences between all parties. Among them, bearish people believe that real estate is currently in a downward cycle, and the industry is still in the process of clearing out, and with the end of large-scale urbanization, demand will also decrease in the future.
However, many people are optimistic about the performance of the financial real estate sector. Fan Jituo of Xinda Securities believes that the current valuation of bank real estate is at a historical low, and its performance is constantly improving, and they are optimistic about their future performance.
At the same time, from the historical market perspective, the excess returns of bank real estate mostly occur in the late economic decline to the early economic recovery, especially before the economy is confirmed to improve, which is more likely to generate excess returns.
For the non-bank financial sector, Fan Jituo believes that their valuations are also at a low level at present, but recently due to the lack of positive catalysts, the start time may be slightly later than that of bank real estate, but it is still recommended to over-allotment.
We all know that because of Feder rate hikes and the epidemic, the performance of A shares this year is relatively wide, and the major indexes have fallen relatively large. Since the beginning of this year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has fallen by 21%, and the ChiNext has fallen by 30%. Even the relatively resistant Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 15%.
But in fact, when A-shares perform poorly, financial real estate has become an important destination for capital defense because of its relatively low valuation, but it has shown relatively resistant to declines. Since the beginning of this year, the real estate index has fallen by only 1%, while the financial real estate industry has fallen by 17%, which is much smaller than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, , Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and ChiNext.
In addition, every time the market falls sharply, financial real estate assumes the responsibility of "protecting the sky" and always goes against the trend of the market. For example, from March to April, all major broad-based indexes fell sharply, but the bank index and real estate index rose against the trend.
sorted out the financial real estate theme fund on the market.
At present, there are not many funds in the market that are themed on banks and real estate, but the number of themed funds investing in these two sectors is limited, not many. In terms of form, there are both passive ETF funds and active funds.
However, in terms of scale, many funds are not very large in scale, they are relatively small, and many are due to their "mini funds" on the edge of liquidation. However, ICBC Financial Real Estate, which has been established for the longest time, has a relatively large scale, reaching 5.5 billion, which is also considered a giant fund.
In terms of industry attributes, although the business differences made by enterprises are not very big, there are still natural differences between enterprises. Some are relatively excellent, and some have weak risk control capabilities, so there will be great differences in stock prices, especially in the face of headwinds.
Therefore, although they are all investing in financial real estate, the differences between funds are quite large, and the differentiation is also very meditative. Some have achieved positive returns this year, but some have also suffered relatively large losses, with the highest difference between the first and the tail reaching a maximum of 25%.
It can also be seen from the above data that excellent managers can still obtain relatively good returns and obtain high alpha returns even in industries with very small differentiation. However, excellent active management capabilities are very scarce, and this is also true among fund managers.
Next, we will focus on introducing three excellent financial real estate active funds.
ICBC Financial Real Estate Mixed A (000251)
When it comes to the financial real estate sector, ICBC Financial Real Estate cannot avoid it. This fund is very well-known and should be a benchmark fund in the industry, with a relatively long operating history. ICBC Financial Real Estate was established in 2013 and is the earliest active financial real estate fund established.
Since its establishment, the fund's overall performance has also been very excellent, with a total return of 297%, and an annualized return of 16.39%, significantly outperforming the equity-oriented hybrid Fund Index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 during the same period. To be honest, it is not easy to do the two sectors of banking and real estate.
Of course, against the background of the decline in the financial real estate index this year, ICBC Financial Real Estate's decline was relatively small, only down 7.95%, and it still achieved relatively good excess returns.
In terms of investment style, ICBC Financial Real Estate is still relatively stable overall, mainly focusing on the big white horses in the sector, such as Poly Development , China Merchants Bank , Oriental Fortune , etc., and at the same time, it will also add some unique stocks , such as Hangzhou Bank and Chengdu Bank. These two stocks are big bull stocks in the past year, and the increase is relatively large.
From the perspective of investor structure, the holding ratio of institutions has always been very high, and at the highest point it exceeded 80%. Of course, institutional funds seem to be withdrawing in the past two years, and their share has dropped to 53%.
Recently, everyone should have noticed that one of the fund managers Wang Junzheng resigned. He is the head of the Financial Real Estate Group of ICBC Credit Suisse and has very strong investment capabilities. Of course, Yan Yao has strong management capabilities, and the performance of financial real estate in the later stage is still guaranteed, so there is no need to worry too much. However, it is also necessary to continue to observe the performance of the fund in the later stage.
Huatai-Prudential New Financial Real Estate Mixed (005576)
This fund was established in March 2018 and has not been established for a long time. Judging from past performance, before 2021, the overall performance was not very outstanding, and the excess was not very obvious. It was basically similar to the performance benchmark.
However, since the second half of last year, individual stocks in the banking and real estate sectors have begun to differentiate, and funds have also begun to have relatively obvious excess returns, especially this year, which has achieved good results and even achieved positive returns of 8% against the trend, which is close to 25% compared to the entire sector. This fund has been recommended many times in the group. The reason I recommend this fund is because the investment portfolio is quite special. The individual stocks bought by the fund manager are not big-name goods, which are obviously different from other funds. The main thing is that they are some small-cap stocks with better fundamentals.
For example, Chengdu Bank and Jiangsu Bank in the banking sector, and Huafa Co., Ltd. and Jianfa Co., Ltd. in the real estate sector. These are the big bull stocks this year, and they are also independent of the financial real estate sector as a whole, and the increase is very good.
Because the investment style is quite distinctive and the performance this year is relatively good, institutional investors have also increased their allocation. The current proportion of institutional holdings has reached 32%, which is a good signal.
However, it should be noted that because I have invested in more small-cap stocks, it will be much larger than other similar funds in terms of volatility, so it is suitable for people with relatively large risk tolerance.
Fuguo Financial Real Estate Industry Mixed (006652)
This fund was established relatively late and was established in early 2019. Judging from the performance, it is quite good. It has outperformed the financial real estate sector overall, achieved relatively good oversight, and the volatility and retracement controls are also pretty good.
The current fund manager is Han Xue. She took over this fund in March this year and has been managing the fund for a relatively short time. However, judging from this year's performance, it has done a good job. Since her management, the fund has achieved positive returns. Compared with the financial real estate sector, the excess is still relatively obvious.
The source of excess, Huatai-Prudential New Financial Real Estate is very similar, and the main investment is some small-cap stocks, such as Binjiang Group , Jianfa Shares and Poly Development in the real estate sector, and Chengdu Bank in the banking sector, especially the allocation ratio of Binjiang Group in the portfolio.
The reason why other active funds have not been introduced is mainly because the differentiation is not very obvious. Their performance is similar to the financial real estate index. Overall, they are allocated around this index. If they missed this wave of market conditions of city commercial banks and some real estate stocks, their α mining ability is still a bit weak.
For the above three more distinctive active funds, if they are relatively stable, you can choose ICBC Financial Real Estate. If they have relatively high risk tolerance, you can consider Huatai-Prudential New Finance or Fuguo Financial Real Estate. These two funds will be higher in relatively excess.
At present, for the financial real estate sector, the biggest benefit is that it is still in the bottom area, with a relatively low valuation, but there is also obvious nonsense in the fundamentals, banks are highly related to the macro economy, and the real estate sector is still struggling. Although the current policies and fundamentals are beginning to improve marginally, they are still far from the real recovery, and fluctuations are actually indispensable.
Especially in terms of growth, the future growth of the financial real estate sector is very weak. It has passed the rapid growth period and is a very mature industry. In fact, it can only be viewed as a value sector. It is estimated that it is more of a return to valuation. It is still difficult to have too much increase, so you must control the allocation ratio and do not buy too high in the combination.
This article is information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so be cautious when investing.
