Brothers, the previous article has boiled the chicken soup for the soul. I wonder if you are in a better mood. Next, I will serve you a hard dish. Let’s talk about the most concerned questions: A shares have bottomed out? When will A-shares bottom?
According to several indicators I often pay attention to, multiple technical indicators show that A-shares are already the bottom area of the market, and the bottom is near the Shanghai Composite Index 3000 points!
1. Emotional indicators - Panic Greed Index
updated data at 8 pm on September 16th is 17.04, which means that market sentiment is approaching extreme panic. When the index is below 10, the freezing point of market sentiment has arrived. He has a heavy position and only loses time and does not lose money. In a few days, the market will come out from the lowest point!
2. Stock and bond cost-effectiveness indicator - Graham coefficient coefficient
As of the evening of September 16th, the Graham coefficient is 2.25, a real market bottom area! The market bottomed out on April 26th, and the index was 2.32!
0 As of the evening of September 16th, the Graham coefficient is 2.25, a real market bottom area! The market bottomed out on April 26th, and the index was 2.32!
0 Considering that the yield of the denominator Treasury bond has dropped so quickly recently, the Graham coefficient between 2.35 and 2.40 is definitely the bottom of the market. In this way, the Shanghai Composite Index still has 3% room for decline. estimates that the market bottom is around 3000 points!
3. GEM bottoming signal indicators: Oriental Fortune plummet
A-share market interesting things. There are always people who summarize this or that sometimes accurate, sometimes inaccurate signals to reach the top and bottom!
It is said that the top weight of the GEM CATL is the beginning of the market plummeting, and there is also the third largest weight of the GEM ET that the plummet is that the market sentiment bottoms out!
I don’t know whether this statement is accurate or not, but this has indeed happened several times, and there is still some truth!
Generally, the decline is that small and medium-sized stocks, track stocks, theme stocks, and other growth stocks are the first to start smashing, large-cap stocks value stocks protect the market slight decline, the end of the decline is the opposite, large-cap stocks value stocks make up for the last few hits, and brokers actively smash the market means that market sentiment and market sentiment have entered a freezing point, which means that the bottom is not far away!
4. A-share long-term trend line - Shanghai Stock Exchange Index Monthly line support line (commonly known as the national fortune line)
Last April 26th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell like a broken bamboo and stopped falling near 2860 points. At that time, the support line point was around 2850 points, which means that the support line has strong support!
Many people think this is the bottom line of A-shares. No matter how bad A-shares are, they will fight back here, and this time will be no exception! According to the current point calculation, it should be near the 120 month line, about 2950-3000 points. The final 3000 points will break, but it will be recovered soon!
Why does this trend line exist? The fundamental reason is that the slope of this line is likely to represent the average wealth growth trend of most people in China in the past 20 years, which is a bit like national fortune!
is calculated based on the average growth rate of wealth in the past 20 years of the past 20 years. is calculated as 5.5% (for many years, the growth rate of China's GDP is 8%, more than 10%, and the growth rate of 5.5% is not high). That is, the power of 1.055 is equal to more than 2.9, which means that everyone's wealth should be 2.9 times that of 20 years ago. The A-share stock index is theoretically the same, about 2.9 times that of 1000 points, and runs above 2900 points!
Once falls below it means that most people’s assets will shrink seriously. Do you think they will agree? They will subconsciously increase their positions near this area to counterattack short , so there are several times when they are in danger and have not fallen below!
Of course, you are in extreme panic and extremely pessimism in all aspects, and no longer believe that national development and personal development will get better and better. Then you can ignore this trend line. When I didn't say it, it is recommended that you stay away from A-shares!
In addition, I believe that there are many signal indicators similar to the above 4 markets that are about to bottom out. You may see it elsewhere, so I will not elaborate on it!
Anyway, in a word, brothers, keep calm and don’t panic. The most dangerous and miserable days are about to pass. The sky cannot fall. The profits taken by the bears will definitely be spit out and returned to you!
