We have a holiday, but the overseas capital market is not calm...
The bankruptcy rumors of Credit Suisse?
Over the weekend, David Taylor, a business reporter under Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), said that a large investment bank is on the verge of bankruptcy. Some overseas self-media speculate that one of them may be Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse fell more than 10% at the opening on Monday. market is concerned that Credit Suisse may be the next " Lehman Brothers ". Credit Suisse five-year credit default swap index (CDS) is currently at about 293 basis points, higher than the level of about 55 basis points at the beginning of this year, and is at an all-time high.
Multiple factors have caused Hong Kong stocks financial stocks to plummet
Postal Savings Bank to plummet , Haitong Securities , and Xinhua Insurance to weaken sharply. The continued weakening of financial stocks is more likely to be affected by the rumors of Credit Suisse's "bankruptcy".
The fermentation of the postal savings bank's plunge:
- Li Ka-shing Reducing holdings of postal savings bank
- Credit Suisse or other large investment banks' concerns
- Domestic real estate policy
- Postal savings Reducing agency fees
The gradual efforts of the real estate policy still have room for reinforcement:
The uncertainty of the global financial market, the pressure of economic downturn, and the domestic demand for stabilizing real estate is further increasing. Real estate stocks have become the biggest force supporting Hong Kong stocks today.
Hong Kong stocks are suffering from a triple blow:
Currently, Hang Seng Index has fallen to a new low in 11 years, and a large number of companies have a stock price valuation of only 2-3PE, 0.2-0.3PB. Even Tencent Holdings has fallen to 65%, and repurchasing 10 billion yuan still has not resisted the downward trend. The two largest weight sectors of the Internet and real estate industry, including the two Hang Seng , have been hitting in the past two years, becoming the biggest driving force for the drop.
First, changes in the policies of the Internet and real estate have become the core logic of the decline in its stock price. Changes in fundamentals are gradually reflected in performance, and pessimistic expectations continue to ferment;
First, the Hong Kong dollar adopts the exchange rate model that is staring at the US dollar, and Hong Kong is one of the global financial centers, and its liquidity is greatly affected by global liquidity. Since last year, major central banks around the world have gradually recycled liquidity, thus pushing interest rates to continue to rise. Since Hong Kong's real estate and financial markets are its pillar industries, these are industries that are highly sensitive to interest rates. Interest rates have risen sharply, directly suppressing the performance of the Hang Seng Index;
Third, global geopolitical instability, especially changes in Sino-US relations in recent years, and the expectation of Chinese stocks listed in the US to delist from Hong Kong, suppressing the expansion of valuation.
What you see now is that the policies of real estate and the Internet have begun to change, and listed companies have also begun to actively repurchase. However, since the Fed rate hike of has not ended, the turning point of global liquidity has not appeared, which means that the pressure on valuation still exists . Higher interest rates will also affect the profits of local companies, which will indeed drag down the performance of A shares to a certain extent. However, considering that Hang Seng's valuation level has been suppressed to an extremely low level, the Fed's interest rate hike has reached the second half, and the space down is relatively limited. For example, 16,000 is also considered an extreme level.
is still on the left side from the configuration point of view. It may be good if you adopt a phased strategy, but if you directly use ALL IN, I think it might be better to wait. After all, we don’t know what will happen in Europe.
