experienced the surge in sea freight fees last year, sea freight fees have continued to decline this year. A freight forwarding company told Red Star Capital that the price of containers on North American routes has fallen from 16,000 last year to $2,400.
Generally speaking, the third quarter is the traditional peak season for global marine container transportation, but this year it encounters a rare situation of "the peak season is not prosperous". A foreign trade company revealed in an interview with the Red Star Capital Bureau that recent orders have decreased by 20% year-on-year.
Red Star Capital Bureau has noticed that the foreign trade market is experiencing a decline in sea freight fees, some shipping companies have suspended flights, weak demand in European and American countries, and a decrease in export orders.
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, the shipping fee plummeted from 16,000 to 2,400 US dollars, and the shipping fee plummeted
"The prices of different shipping companies are different." On September 27, Mr. Chen, a staff member of a freight forwarding company in Shenzhen, introduced to the Red Star Capital Bureau that a 40-foot standard container was sent to the United States, "2,000 US dollars for HPL, and 2,400 US dollars for EMCh, MSCh USD 2,400. "(Note: HPL, EMC, and MSC are the abbreviations of world-renowned shipping companies Hapag-Lloyd , Evergreen Marine , and Mediterranean Shipping , respectively)
Mr. Liu, a staff member of another freight forwarding company, also said that the quotations of different shipping companies do fluctuate, but the overall price is around USD 3,000, and there is room for price reduction. The container price of
html$02,400 is a plunge compared to last year. "Last year, shipping was too crazy, basically above $10,000, and the highest was $16,000 or $18,000," said Mr. Chen.After experiencing the surge in sea freight fees last year, sea freight fees have continued to decline this year.
Freights Baltic container freight index (FBX) shows that as of September 26, the average FBX container shipping price was US$4,029, down 63.8% from the all-time high in September last year. Among them, the freight rates of China/Far East-North America West Coast routes fell by 85.7% from last year's highest freight rate level.
According to Shanghai Shipping Exchange data, the latest issue of China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on September 23 was 2475.97 points, down 5.1% from the previous period, and has been down for 15 consecutive weeks. Freight rates of major routes fell, among which the Bohong, South America, East America and West America routes fell significantly, with weekly declines of 14.1%, 12.2%, 6.6% and 4.9% respectively.
↑Screenshot of the official website of Shanghai Shipping Exchange
But it is worth noting that the current price of shipping fees is still higher than before the epidemic. Mr. Liu told the Red Star Capital Bureau that the container price before the epidemic was around US$1,500.
Many shipping companies have suspended their flights
The loading and unloading volume of terminals has decreased
0 After the sea freight costs have fallen, the first thing that is affected is the shipping companies.
According to CCTV Finance, many shipping companies have begun to suspend their flights one after another to change the situation of oversupply. Data released by the shipping consulting agency Drury showed that in the five weeks from September 19 to October 23, 122 flights were cancelled out of a total of 750 scheduled flights on major routes such as Trans-Pacific, Transatlantic, Asia-Nordic and Asian- Mediterranean , with a cancellation rate of 16%. Among them, the three major shipping alliances in the world have successively canceled 101 voyages.
htmlOn September 29, the Red Star Capital Bureau called the investor department of COSCO Shipping (601919.SH) regarding the shifts. The staff said that COSCO Shipping did have flights suspended, but only a few. "I can't tell you how much I stopped. This is not public information. But I can say qualitatively that the main purpose of the suspension is not the company's subjective reduction of the current capacity supply, but because there are several (requirements) for the operation of our liner now. For example, the industry's accurate flight rate is very low, so in order to maintain the stability of customer service, we do need to adjust some flights, such as through the air shift, but this does not mean that my price is not enough. I will have fewer flights, which is not the reason." After the shipping company canceled some of the voyages, the originally bustling port terminals also became loose."Because you need to stock Black Friday and Christmas, according to previous years, the third quarter is indeed the peak export season, but this year there is indeed a phenomenon of "the peak season is not prosperous"."On September 28, Mr. Zhou, a manager of a port in Guangdong, told the Red Star Capital Bureau that the port's bulk cargo loading and unloading volume this year fell by about 10% year-on-year.
"However, for the terminal, revenue has not changed much. "Mr. Zhou said, "Because the terminal raised loading and unloading fees at the end of last year, the income and profit were basically the same as last year. ”
It is understood that since Ningbo Port and Shanghai Port Group announced the increase of container loading and unloading fees in December last year, Guangzhou Port also announced the increase of fees. Guangzhou Port has announced to the public that port operation free shipping fee for foreign trade loading and unloading operations , 20-foot foreign trade standard heavy container (packed container) has been raised from the original 490 yuan (trailer collection and port distribution method) and 540 yuan (water transfer method) to 583 yuan, and the public price of foreign trade empty boxes has been raised from the original 300 yuan to 357 RMB.
Foreign trade orders decreased
Foreign trade enterprises earned Exchange rate difference
Red Star Capital Bureau noticed that maritime transportation, as an important link for international transportation, connects foreign trade enterprises, freight forwarding companies, shipping companies, port terminals, overseas warehousing and other links, affecting the whole body.
China General Administration of Customs data shows that in August this year, the total value of my country's exported goods was RMB 2.12 trillion, an increase of 11.8 %, down 5.3% month-on-month.
htmlOn August 29, Sun Xiao, spokesperson of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and Secretary-General of the China International Chamber of Commerce, said at a press conference that a recent questionnaire survey conducted by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and more than 500 companies showed that the main difficulties facing enterprises are slow logistics, high costs and few orders. In the survey, some positive factors have also been noted. The national policy of stabilizing the economy has been accelerated, foreign trade imports and exports have stabilized and rebounded, and corporate expectations and confidence are gradually improving. html On September 29, Mr. Han, manager of a small commodity foreign trade company in Yiwu City, told the Red Star Capital Bureau that the recent orders have decreased by about 20% compared with last year, but because they received orders related to the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the situation is better than expected.According to Mr. Han, the decrease in order quantity is mainly due to the decline in demand from foreign customers. "Because the US ports were heavily blocked last year, their goods could not be unloaded and they have been clearing their inventory. A customer told me that the stocking for Christmas last year had not been cleared and they continued to sell this year. "
Founder Securities research report stated that due to the large amount of replenishment of the inventory, major retailers in the United States have recently severely cut retail orders, Walmart canceled billions of orders, and Target canceled orders of more than $1.5 billion in order to keep the inventory level consistent with expected demand.
"But the reduction in order quantity does not mean that it is not profitable at all. "Mr. Han said, "Last year, the shipping fee was too high, and the cost of foreign trade companies was very high. I know that some foreign trade companies for electronic products accounted for more than half of the shipping cost. The industry does seem very lively, but in fact it doesn’t make money. "
On the contrary, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has depreciated this year, which is good news for export companies. Mr. Han said that due to the exchange rate , "some orders have earned 400,000 yuan. "
However, Mr. Han admitted that earning the exchange rate difference is short-term fast money. "In fact, the reduction in order quantity by peers is mostly a panic about the future, because the positive effects of the exchange rate cannot be sustained. If the exchange rate continues to be above 7, foreign customers will definitely have to bargain. I have a friend who has received news of a customer bargaining. "
Expert:
Supply and demand relationship is the main reason for the rise and fall of sea freight costs
Hongxing Capital Bureau learned after multiple interviews that the decline in sea freight costs is affected by the decline in foreign freight demand, the gradual recovery of market capacity, and the high inflation rates in European and American countries.
On September 29, Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, said in an interview with the Hongxing Capital Bureau that the rise and fall of sea freight costs are mainly affected by the supply and demand relationship.
"From the supply perspective, we have made a series of efforts to reduce freight rates, including increasing containers and signing long-term agreements with shipping companies to increase capacity.On the other hand, from the demand side, since the European and American economies are gradually entering recession, it releases less demand and trade is relatively weak. In this case, demand is not strong, my country's export orders are reduced, and the seafreight business also declines. "Bai Ming believes that the decline in sea freight costs is caused by the decline in demand for international trade
. It is because of the weak international market and the decline in sea freight costs, and it is not because of the decline in sea freight costs, but because of the weakening of international market.The above-mentioned Guangzhou port manager Mr. Zhou believes that the surge in sea freight costs last year was not a real increase in freight rates, but an irrational and special increase. "Last year and the previous year, we had a large number of containers that entered the US market and could not come back, and they were all piled there, which caused the shortage of domestic containers and the increase in prices. The decline in sea freight costs this year is a natural decline that conforms to market laws. "
Founder mid-term futures research report stated that from the perspective of capacity supply, global container capacity increased by 3.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, and was at a moderate level in the past seven years. Due to the sluggish demand, the capacity idle rate hit the peak in the past five years.
A new round of measures to stabilize foreign trade is implemented intensively
strives to ensure order fulfillment and delivery
Hongxing Capital Bureau noticed that my country's new round of policy measures to stabilize foreign trade is being implemented intensively.
September 27, The Ministry of Commerce issued the " Measures to Support the Stable Growth of Foreign Trade ". Wang Shouwen, the Ministry of Commerce International Trade Negotiation Representative and Deputy Minister, said that there are three aspects to support the stable development of foreign trade.
The first aspect is to enhance the ability to fulfill foreign trade contracts and further explore the international market. All localities should strengthen the guarantees of epidemic prevention, energy use, employment, logistics, etc. to ensure the timely fulfillment and delivery of foreign trade orders; we should study and optimize the underwriting conditions of medium- and long-term insurance for export credit insurance ; accelerate the use of special funds for foreign economic and trade development ; Support enterprises to participate in various overseas self-organized exhibitions, encourage places with conditions to expand the scale of overseas self-organized exhibitions, and continuously improve the effectiveness of exhibitions on behalf of others. For foreign trade enterprises to go abroad for exhibitions and negotiations under the normal epidemic prevention and control, we must further strengthen service guarantees; expand the upcoming autumn fair, that is, the scope of enterprises participating in the 132nd Canton Fair, and extend the online display time of the Canton Fair.
The second aspect is to stimulate innovation vitality and help stabilize foreign trade. The document proposes to add a batch of market procurement trade methods pilot projects and add a batch of imports Trade promotion innovation demonstration zone, and a number of comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zones were added; policies and measures to further support the development of cross-border e-commerce overseas warehouses were introduced; tax policies to facilitate cross-border e-commerce export return and exchange.
The third aspect is to strengthen guarantee capabilities and promote smooth trade. The document proposes to improve port collection and distribution and domestic transportation efficiency, ensure fast transfer and express transportation of imported and export goods; continuously clean up unreasonable charges at ports; promote experiences and practices of improving quality and efficiency at ports; strengthen customs clearance facilitation services for foreign trade enterprises, and realize specific measures such as fast incoming and outgoing goods.
Red Star News reporter Xie Yutong
Editor Tang Huan Editor Yang Cheng
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