Today I exchanged some Hong Kong dollars in hand for RMB. I originally wanted to change it yesterday, but unfortunately, I had to stay here until today. I didn't expect the RMB to fall so much. It was 7.19 in the morning. At this moment, I swung left and right at 7.20. On July 15, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio was adjusted in China. Yesterday, the foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism meeting was held. The meaning was clear and we had to stop. The RMB can fluctuate widely, but cannot move significantly in one direction. I guess the RMB will be stronger than it is now at the end of the year, but it is probably limited, after all, the surplus is still quite high.
The pound collapsed a few days ago, probably because it plans to launch a new fiscal stimulus plan with a total of about £161 billion in five years, including tax cuts and energy support. Because the pound 3 hikes rate in the first three times, dares to 50bps, although the strength is not as strong as the United States, the attitude is consistent. The tightening monetary policy has not changed, but the new prime minister has launched a stimulus fiscal policy after taking office, which means that there is inconsistency between fiscal and monetary policies of the British Empire, so I guess the market votes with its feet. If you can't see clearly, just flash.
According to IMF, these measures are "not targeted." The decline in
pound exchange rate caused an unexpected stampede, including Li Bancheng's multiple assets and the UK's pension. So even the British debt US debt jumped up and down. In the past few years, I have not paid much attention to the fluctuations of US debt, but this year, it is unusual to fluctuate at around 10 or 20 points at every turn.
According to Mutoujie, the current US bonds are 10-2=-50bps, and the radicalness of interest rate hikes exceeds the Volker cycle. Volker pushed the long-term U.S. Treasury yield by 1.6 times that year, but now Brother Bao pushed the yield by 7.4 times. Brother Bao also increased the federal benchmark interest rate by 13 times, while during the Volcker period, it was twice (10% to 20%, well, the base was quite large at that time, so we can't talk about toxicity by putting aside the dose).
MuToujie concluded that the current large-scale interest rate hikes are already too fierce, and the rapid rise in US dollar interest rates will not benefit the whole world, and will eventually do evil to themselves. There is a good memory in the
group, and it is said that domestic financial leaders also talked about similar views in 2018. I went to google and talked about the risks of illegal fundraising. "If the rate of return exceeds 6%, you have to ask questions. If it exceeds 8%, it is very dangerous. If it exceeds 10%, you have to prepare to lose all your principal." If there is a difference, it is that this round of interest rate increases is a national behavior, but there is no big difference in meaning. The interest rate is too high, not a good thing.
It seems that I said not long ago that September P should move. A few days ago, the P of HSBC hit 12.5bps. I'm staring at 1M shibor and MM's interest rate to make this judgment. In fact, HSBC should not want to add P. After all, the rise in loan interest rates will increase the repayment risk of loans. As a banknote issuing bank, its family has too many current Hong Kong dollars, which can comfortably cover the market interest rate spread .
has said so much, and I want to make another guess: the rate and amplitude of interest rate hikes in the future will slow down and slow down, instead balance sheet reduction appears in various forms and tighten the liquidity of the financial market.
rate hike is in line with traditional economic theory, with clear logic and clear path. But this operation is a domain attack by AOE, from institutions to enterprises, from governments to individuals, all within the scope of influence. If you don’t say anything else, you have to consider the votes.
balance sheet reduction and convergence of liquidity between financial markets in various ways can also increase the interest rate level of institutions, but it is indirectly transmitted and will not directly affect loans, and can give institutions room for adjustment and a chance to breathe.
Furthermore, another working day is the fourth quarter. In theory, it is time to calculate the harvest at the end of the year and adjust the balance sheet, and the expectations for the exchange rate are also clear day by day. Moving interest rates, especially the US dollar interest rate, can easily cause everyone to complain, and the adverse reactions of balance sheet reduction will be much smaller.
In short, firstly, don’t expect any merciful operations of the Federal Reserve in the fourth quarter. Secondly, you can’t always focus on the resolutions of the interest rate meeting. You have to pay more attention to the liquidity situation and balance sheet of the market. Thirdly, you have a high probability of not betting on the reversal of the first and second quarters next year, although there are still six months left. If there is a fourth point, it makes sense that China is mainly based on me. Large economies are qualified and capable of independent operations, but there may be no directional differences in controlling liquidity.
I started writing this article in the afternoon. At around five o'clock in the evening, the RMB suddenly rose sharply. Although I didn't look at the market at night, it was estimated that London would be more lively.
Today, Chief Chen and colleagues who are doing research at our headquarters expressed the same view that the RMB exchange rate should not only focus on the ten-year bond interest rate spread between China and the United States, but also on the US dollar index and China's import and export trade . After all, it is the interest rate that determines the exchange rate, and what determines the interest rate is the economy.
Let’s say another eighth sentence, Beixi No. 1 and 2. There are really not many people in the world who can and dare to challenge Russia and Germany at the same time.
