Now, the focus of the market is not on China, but on the United States, because there is a very important event next, that is, the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting . At that time, will raise interest rates 75 basis points or 100 basis points, the answer will be revealed.
Judging from today's market trend, market surged and fell, narrowing the increase, which was entirely caused by the main funds buying and selling. They flowed into the market in the morning, boosting the market's rise, and flowed out of the market in the afternoon, pulling the market back. As for northbound funds, under the premise that they flow into A shares and , the Chinese stock market has risen most of the time, which is enough to prove their great effect.
data, 3,841 stocks rose in the two markets, 954 stocks fell, 66 stocks hit the daily limit, and 3 stocks hit the daily limit. This is the flip of the market yesterday. It should be said that the money-making effect is still good, at least it did not cause further pressure on the market.
Let’s bring back the topic and talk about the impact of Fed rate hike on A-shares. Last week, after a series of economic data including August CPI was released, the futures market's bet on Fed's 100 basis points hike in one-time rate hike in in 49 was sharply heated up, but after digesting emotions last weekend, the market finally "calmed". As of tonight, the futures market believes that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 100 basis points on Thursday has dropped to 18%, with the remaining 82% chance of a 75 basis points hike.
Nevertheless, the industry's debate on whether the Fed should add 75 basis points or 100 basis points this week is far from over.
Some views believe that since the University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations released last Friday are not bad, the Fed's interest rate hike this week will still be 75 basis points, and a 100 basis points rate hike may cause panic in the market. However, some people believe that inflation in August, especially the core inflation that the Fed is concerned about, is much higher than expected, which proves that the Fed still has a lot of work to complete, and no one knows how long-term inflation expectations are formed, so the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 100 basis points on Thursday is greater than 50%.
However, whether the Fed raises interest rates by 75 basis points or 100 basis points this Thursday, this will be the biggest continuous rate hike of the Fed since the former chairman Paul Volcker ( Paul Volcker).
To sum up, 100 basis points rate hikes will become a historic event, and 75 basis points rate hikes are a normal event. And the U.S. stock , which opened to tonight, has responded to this in advance.
However, I think no matter how much basis point the Fed raises interest rates, the impact on A-shares is gradually decreasing. Moreover, two key signals were released during the trading session today, as follows:
signal 1: The market continues to shrink
Chinese stock market, once the shrinking form appears, it will inevitably be the end of risks and the germination of opportunities. This is actually very easy to verify. Because we have seen it once in the past six months, the market has increased from about 660 billion yuan near 2860 points to about 1.2 trillion yuan near 3424 points. After that, A-shares fell to their current position again and once again made land volume. I would like to emphasize again that there is land quantity and land price, so don’t be afraid.
Signal 2: Retail investors continue to wait and see
Judging from today's market sentiment, retail investors have obviously been beaten and completely lost the confidence that was above 3400 points. It can be said that they have lost their fighting spirit. You can find out the articles of the day and see how retail investors look at the bullish market. The comment area is full of bullish future markets, and any risk warning becomes their laughing stock. And today, these people have become laughing stocks without exception.
We often say that falling is the only way to test the true or false investors. There may be no way to see anything up. Everyone makes money and everyone is a stock god. Once it falls, all kinds of monsters and monsters will show their true colors. No matter how much you disguise, you still cannot hide your panic heart. This is the true expression of emotions. The main force in China is based on this point to harvest retail investors again and again.
Buffett said a famous saying:
I am greedy if others panic, and I am greedy if others are greedy!
In fact, this sentence is very classic. It is the crystallization of wisdom in the investment career of the stock god. It is put on the table and many people don’t know how to use it! Ask yourself, which market did not rise from panic, and which did not end under madness? And you, buying at a low level and selling at a high level, will always rob the poor and help the rich.
is based on the above two reasons that make me more convinced that the decline of the Chinese stock market has come to an end. Even if the Fed raises interest rates, it will only destroy the index and not damage the volume.
Chinese stock market will surely survive the Battlegrounds, and a battle will surely conquer the world!
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