National Day holiday, RMB exchange rate trend is still the focus. Reversing the decline and continuing to appreciate will greatly boost the confidence and courage of A-share traders after the holiday. As of press time, the RMB has continued to rise against the US dollar, with the current price being 7.05661.
needs to be emphasized: Since early July, A-shares have been shorted on the market, and foreign capital inflows have decreased, mainly because of the continuous depreciation of the RMB.
10-01:20 15:20 pm RMB against the US dollar
Why is the appreciation of exchange rate so important to A-shares?
1. Exchange rate is a direct signal of financial trends. The outbreak of a financial crisis is first manifested in the sharp depreciation of the country's currency. Reasonable fluctuations and large depreciation are completely different trends and directions.
2. Exchange rate determines the pricing of core assets, such as banks, insurance, non-ferrous metals , etc. As the currency depreciates, the price and value will decline. These are the weights on the market. The center of weight will shift downward, and the index will inevitably adjust. One of the most direct reasons for the trend of A-shares in the past three months is that the RMB depreciation is too fast and the market cannot withstand the large outflow of foreign capital.
3. Depreciation is a false proposition that favors exports, because more benefits obtained from increasing exports will be digested by the increase in import costs. The increase in exports of labor-intensive products does increase employment; but it cannot be ignored that the price of commodity has risen as a result, energy consumption has increased, and the risk of imported inflation has intensified.
I will continue to collect and organize and analyze the conclusions; please continue to pay attention to me. This study is the result of individuals using models for long-term dynamic and static analysis, and is not used as an investment basis.
