The era is changing, and so is strategic research. If self-revolution cannot innovate, it may become the art of slaying dragons and be left to the shelves, or become an abandoned child of the changing times. From 2006 to the present, from Yidong General Manager to me, the Xingzheng Strategy Team has gone through 16 years of inheritance, and our research methodology has also undergone transformation from three "sects".
01 Emei School: debates long and short, grasps the turning point,
shows its edge, and hits the nail on the head
In the era of large fluctuations in the macro economy, "big opening and closing" policies, and "big ups and downs" indexes, timing and positions are crucial. It is common for teachers to take photos of positions and long-short debates. With the 2011 "Dunkirk Retreat" as a representative, timing and turning points have always been our characteristics, and it emphasizes the sharpness and sharpness of the Emei School's martial arts. Behind the bulls and bears is the game of economy and policies, and the other is the game of people's hearts under the retail market.
However, in recent years, macroeconomic fluctuations have gradually converged and policies have no longer "large-amplified and closed". Correspondingly, the market index has also entered the "snail shell". On the other hand, the acceleration of institutionalization has led to a decline in market fluctuations, and the range of institutional positions has also decreased. On the contrary, the differentiation between index and structure is getting bigger and bigger. If you look at the index correctly and the structure incorrectly, the final rate of return may be a difference. These changes together have led to the decline in the importance of shooting the big market and grasping the index turning point to investment.
Therefore, our methodology ushered in the first qualitative variation evolution in early 2016.
02 Wudang Sect: Core assets,
The remaining ones are king, and the long-term short-term
In 2016, General Yidong proposed the concept of core assets. In the following years, how to find and invest in core assets has become our main research line. In 2018, the strategy team I led proposed that "A-share research requires a look at the world" and began to build a complete foreign investment research framework. The hundred-page "Foreign Investment Research Notes" was expensive at the time. In 2019, A-shares ushered in historical changes under the background of institutionalization and internationalization. We proposed the "united front of core assets", "the A-share valuation system has set things right", and "the leader from discount to premium", completing the core asset investment methodology Systematic construction.
This is also the first iteration, reshaping and sublimation of the traditional strategy research framework. From long-short games to short-short games, we will explore and allocate core assets in various industries where the strong will always be strong, the leftover will be the king, and the winners will take all. Just as the Wudang Sect focuses on internal skills cultivation, the longer they live, the more they accumulate, the deeper their skills, the higher their moat, and eventually becomes an invincible martial arts giant like real person .
But in 2021, under the new political and economic situation, the winner-takes-all "core assets" face major challenges, and the moat of the giants is no longer solid. At the same time, the industry is even more severe, with half of the sea and half of the flames of traditional industries and emerging industries, and huge differences between sub-industries.
keeps pace with the times, and our research methodology began a new round of self-revolution and qualitative variation evolution in the fourth quarter of 2021.
03 Shaolin Pat : Structured, digitized,
Practice the seventy-two unique skills
If we use two words to summarize the changes in our methodology in the past year, the first one must be [structured]. Since last year, we have systematically built an industry-level timing framework and industry comparison system to better adapt to the current extremely differentiated structural market. The [New Semi-jun], which we first created at the beginning of this year, is the most typical representative.
first systematically builds a time selection framework for the industry. Taking the "New Semi-Army" as an example, we combine macro, meso, and emotions and provide very intuitive timing judgments for different durations through indicator systems such as domestic and foreign liquidity, analysts' expected correction intensity, and congestion. . The effectiveness has also continued to be verified since the beginning of this year: the bottoming out in April, the reversal continued from May to June, the bumpy in July, and the recent fluctuations have almost been predicted by the indicator system.
Secondly, the industry will be more deeply and more detailed and further downward.Since the beginning of this year, we have built a framework for the prosperity tracking and profit forecasting of the consumption and growth industries, covering 23 consumer segments and 20 emerging industry chains (86 segments) to closely track the prosperity of each segment. Marginal change. Taking the "New Semi-jun" as an example, its 40 sub-industry meso-view database covers more than 3,000 indicators and can realize daily high-frequency tracking. The second keyword of the methodological change of
is strategy [digitalization], making full use of enough data and quantitative methods to open up the imagination space of strategy research, so that logic is no longer a black box and a "crowding system" with extremely high market attention It is the direct body real .
congestion is an important indicator that we exclusively constructed this year to reflect trading sentiment in popular tracks. It is synthesized from four dimensions, including volume, price, capital, and analyst prediction, and seven indicators to quantitatively track market sentiment changes, and for stock prices in the short term The trend has strong indications. Since the beginning of this year, the industry rotation and style prediction have been significant. A large amount of data processing and calculation can only be handed over to program code to process.
In addition, for example, the high-frequency tracking framework for the industry's prosperity involves processing and fitting more than 3,000 indicators, and the construction of analyst expectations correction intensity indicators involves the adjustment of profit forecasts of analysts across the market, which are difficult for traditional data processing methods to achieve. In the future, digitalization is a necessary path for strategy research. We will strive to allow data and quantitative tools to play a greater role, explore more interesting data and unique perspectives, and expand the boundaries of strategy research. Research paradigm like
is more like the Shaolin School. Digitalization is our internal strength, the Yijin Jing, and structure requires us to study more detailed and deeper. Only by combining the two can we finally practice the seventy-two unique skills and finally form " The martial arts system of Shaolin is produced in the world. This is also another revolution and innovation in our methodology so far.
The road to innovation is difficult and difficult, and we will forge ahead. In the past few years, I have heard countless times that strategies have become unimportant, but I think this is limited to the traditional strategic framework that remains unchanged and sticks to the past. Only by embracing the times can we avoid being abandoned by the market. As long as we embrace the times, I believe we can do a lot.
Zhang Qiyao Xingzheng Strategy Chief Strategy Analyst
