This article consists of nine parts, and the contents are all public information so that readers can conduct one-stop fundamental analysis of pre-investment research; it does not constitute investment advice, does not recommend any stocks, and does not involve specific transactions; personal opinions are for reference only, investments are Risks, be cautious when entering the market.
. International macro
In recent years, we are experiencing unprecedented major challenges in history. Globalization led by the West is moving towards a globalization crisis under the influence of various contradictions. Globalization cannot continue and is entering the stage of disintegration. It turns out that various economies that were deeply integrated into globalization were passively caught in this crisis. Our country is a country with a relatively late crisis. As long as it is deeply integrated into globalization, it will encounter this crisis of global disintegration.
In the process of global disintegration, we are also facing a new Cold War. China's growth in the past 20 years is related to globalization, which is in line with the operating laws of the Western financial capital development stage. In the first decade of the 21st century, China and the United States had a strategic cooperative relationship, and now it has a strategic competitive relationship. In recent years, it has even become a strategic hostile relationship, which itself is an objective way of global operation. It is due to the law.
2. Domestic mesotherapy
The face of external uncertainty is mainly a huge challenge brought by globalization, and the main contradiction of the challenge of globalization is global surplus. In the past 20 years, major Western countries have increased the price of commodity by issuing a large amount of currencies. Faced with these challenges of global surplus, my country began to emphasize that the domestic circulation is the main body, and the domestic and international dual circulations are mutually promoting each other. The country emphasizes that the formation of , a national unified market, is an arrangement for strategic transformation with the domestic circulation as the main body.
This year’s file, the four key points in : 1. We must grasp the basic principle of "stability", adhere to and adhere to the hard tasks of the two bottom lines, and adhere to the "three new". 2. Resolutely defend the two bottom lines of food security and preventing large-scale poverty relapse. 3. Developing county economy requires financial innovation. 4. The key to the construction of digital villages lies in the production side.
Lithium is the lightest alkali metal element. The abundance of lithium ranks 27th in the earth's crust. There are more than 150 minerals containing lithium in nature. The main lithium ore The substances are spodumene , lithium mica , lithium feldspar, etc. Lithium is the most active metal among known elements (including radioactive element ). It is often used in the industrial field and is known as industrial MSG. Because it has the highest standard oxidation potential in chemical element , it is suitable for batteries. and energy storage field, also known as the energy metal and white oil of the 21st century. At present, lithium is listed as a strategic emerging industry mineral by my country, as a key raw material by EU , and as a key mineral by the United States. Lithium resources are mainly used in the lithium battery industry and are the best choice for new energy vehicles, energy storage and consumer electronics applications.
New energy vehicle policies in Europe and the United States have increased, stimulating sales volume year-on-year. my country has successively introduced encouragement policies for the development of new energy vehicles. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and four other departments issued the "Notice on Carrying out the 2022 New Energy Vehicles Going to the Countryside Activities", encouraging localities to issue more support policies for new energy vehicles going to the countryside, improve the use environment for new energy vehicles, and promote the construction of rural charging and swapping infrastructure. Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce and seven other departments jointly formulated the "Beijing Plan on Encouraging Consumption of Automobile Renewal". The release of this consumption plan further promoted the increase in the new energy vehicle market and stimulated consumption in the automobile market. In the post-epidemic era, the demand for new energy vehicles to be replenished, coupled with the purchase tax reduction policy and local limited time and limited subsidies, the market has shown a strong rebound trend.
According to data released by the European Automobile Association (ACEA), in the first quarter of 2022, a total of electric vehicles were sold in the European market, a year-on-year increase of 61%; in the second quarter of 2022, the sales of pure electric vehicles in the EU continued to expand, year-on-year growth. 11.1%.According to data released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers , in the first half of 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.661 million and 2.6 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times, and the market penetration rate of reached 21.6%. Among them, the sales of new energy passenger cars accounted for 24.0% of the total sales of passenger cars, and the proportion of new energy vehicles among Chinese brand passenger cars has reached 39.8%.
Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of 2022 were affected by the epidemic, all enterprises attached great importance to new energy vehicle products, and supply chain resources were given priority to concentrate on new energy vehicles. Judging from the current development trend, the overall production and sales completion situation exceeded expectations. Based on the judgment of the automobile market throughout the year, Caixin Securities expects that the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 9.672 million units in 2022, corresponding to the power battery installation volume of 9.11.4GWh, and the demand for lithium will be about 346,000 tons of LCE. The China Passenger Car Association predicts that my country's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 6-6.5 million vehicles in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 70%-84%.
As the domestic epidemic eases, downstream enterprises resume work and production, downstream demand recovery has increased and exceeded expectations. The sales prices of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium hydroxide have stabilized and rebounded. Driven by strong downstream economic conditions and stable prices, supply and demand in the industrial chain are still tightening, prompting the accelerated expansion of production in the midstream links, and the strategic position of upstream lithium mineral resources is becoming increasingly prominent.
According to USGS data, after the growth rate of global lithium resource production hit a high in 2018, it led to negative growth in 2019 due to the deterioration of supply and demand relationship; since then, as the prosperity of lithium demand continues to rise, supply returns to growth. Based on this, GF Securities is expected to maintain the growth rate of lithium supply above 20% every year from 2022 to 2025, and a new round of global lithium resources expansion is beginning.
battery grade lithium carbonate, battery grade lithium hydroxide and battery grade lithium fluoride are important raw materials for manufacturing lithium-ion battery . The company is the first domestic company to produce battery-grade lithium fluoride and high-purity lithium carbonate. It is currently the main supplier of domestic ion electrolyte lithium hexafluorophosphate key raw material lithium fluoride, and is the lithium-ion battery positive material raw material battery-grade carbonic acid One of the suppliers of lithium and battery-grade lithium hydroxide. The increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries will drive the company's rapid development of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and lithium fluoride businesses.
Rarity Light metal Raw material—cesium rubidium salt. Cesium is a rare mineral species that can "go to heaven and earth", with a moderate abundance in the earth's crust. Cesium has no elementary form in nature, and is mainly distributed in land and oceans with very little salt form, and the amount of ore retained worldwide is sparse. Cesium has an independent mineral cesium garnet. The grade of cesium oxide is between 5% and 32%, which is the main raw material for extracting cesium; independent minerals refer to the formation of mineralogical research that can be carried out under the naked eye or microscope and can be used for mechanical use. Or physically separate mineral particles from single mineral samples (particle size > 0.001 mm).
According to data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the global pegmatite-type cesium mineral resource reserves in 2020 were 217,100 tons. According to a research report by the Guosen Institute of Economics, the three major mining areas with large-scale mining resources around the world that can be mined on a large scale are the Tanco mining area in Canada, the Bikita mining area in Zimbabwe and the Sinclair mining area in Australia.
rubidium has no separate industrial minerals and is often dispersed in the layers of lithium mica, cesium garnet and salt ore. Rubidium is more abundant than lithium and cesium, but due to the absence of rubidium-rich minerals, it is difficult to extract. Rubidium is mainly used as a processing by-product of cesium and lithium for comprehensive recycling. According to , the global rubidium resource reserves in 2020 were 102,000 tons, with a high resource concentration. In 2021, there are no new reserves of cesium rubidium resource in the world.
cesium has excellent photoelectric properties and strong chemical activity. It is an essential material for infrared technology , one of the indispensable and important raw materials in the national science and technology, military, industrial and other fields, and one of the eight rare metal minerals in my country.With the rapid rise of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and new generation information technology, cesium is increasingly valued by countries around the world. It has been listed as a key mineral by the United States, Japan is listed as a strategic mineral, and Canada is listed as a key mineral. . Based on the unique characteristics of cesium rubidium, my country has also strengthened its application of cesium rubidium.
In September 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission and four other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Expanding Investment in Strategic Emerging Industry and Cultivating and Strengthening Growth Poles", which proposed in accelerating the strengths and weaknesses of the new materials industry in . Implement the action plan for the innovation and development of new materials and improve the technical level requirements of characteristic resources such as lithium, rubidium, cesium, etc. in the mining, smelting, and deep processing.
In March 2021, the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress voted to pass the "Resolution on the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of the Long-Term Goals for 2035", which once again emphasized the development and expansion of strategic emerging industries. The development of new materials will be regarded as one of the development priorities of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and provide strong policy support for building the cesium rubidium industry into a national strategic emerging industry.
cesium products are widely used in the fields of fine chemicals, oil and gas drilling, aerospace, optoelectronics, medical and pharmaceuticals, 5G communications, time and frequency industries, fireproof materials and other fields. Its irreplaceability and excellent performance have been highly recognized and used on a large scale in related fields. Western developed countries are the major consumer countries of cesium in the world, and my country still has a gap with Western developed countries in the high-end application field of cesium.
rubidium products are also well used in high-tech applications such as electronic devices , catalysts, special glass and energy. With the advancement of my country's science and technology and the increase in high-quality demand for related fields, the application space of cesium and rubidium salt products will be further opened up, and the market prospects will be broad.
cesium formate is the product with the highest proportion of downstream demand in the middle and downstream of a single cesium salt product, and is mainly used in the drilling field of the oil and gas industry. my country has a high dependence on oil imports. In the first half of 2022, my country produced 69.47 million tons of oil and imported 253 million tons of oil, with an import dependence of as high as 78.4%. As my country fully enters a new stage of building a modern socialist country during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and under the new goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, my country's oil and gas industry will also enter the accelerated transformation and comprehensively promote the high-quality development of . New era. The characteristics of stable gas increase will be more obvious. It is expected that by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, oil demand will gradually approach the peak platform of 730 million to 750 million tons. natural gas is still in a period of rapid development, reaching 420 billion to 500 billion cubic meters in 2025.
On July 24, 2022, National Energy Administration organized a work promotion meeting to vigorously increase the intensity of oil and gas exploration and development in 2022. The meeting required: We must vigorously promote the implementation of oil and gas related plans, increase upstream investment with greater efforts, and help ensure Economic operation and people's livelihood needs; vigorously promote new breakthroughs in marine oil and gas exploration and development, and improve the degree of exploration of marine oil and gas resources; vigorously promote green development of upstream oil and gas, implement clean replacement of production energy, and achieve deep integration of exploration and development with new energy.
cesium formate is the best quality drilling fluid, completion fluid, sealing fluid, perforation fluid and filling fluid in the oil and gas industry, so as to greatly improve oil production rate and drilling efficiency, reduce friction coefficient , and reduce card Incomparable advantages such as drilling risks, not easy to cause metal corrosion, and environmental protection are favored by world-class oil companies and have been maturely used in the North Sea and other regions in Europe. With the promotion of green development of the domestic oil and gas industry, the application prospects of cesium formate in China are promising.
. The company was established in 1999. It originated from the original China Nonferrous Metals Industry Corporation . It is a mining group enterprise with the entire mineral resource industry chain. The main businesses include: rare light metals (cesium, rubidium) resource development and utilization business, lithium battery new energy raw material development and utilization business, solid mineral exploration and mining rights development business.The company is a leading enterprise in the world's cesium rubidium salt fine chemical industry, a major manufacturer and supplier of battery-grade lithium fluoride in China and one of the battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide suppliers. It is the world's only cesium potassium acid manufacturer and supplier. , an important supplier of overseas solid mineral geological exploration technical services.
Company owns 104 major high-quality cesium mineral resources and other mineral rights in the world, including: cesium, lithium, copper, cobalt, gold, silver, ferrochromium, tantalum, beryllium, etc.; its business covers Asia, More than 40 countries and regions in Africa, Europe, America, Oceania have established countries such as China, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Norway , Zambia , Congo (Dragon), Zimbabwe , Uganda and other countries. Branches.
As the first batch of commercial comprehensive geological exploration technology service companies in China's non-ferrous metals industry to go global in scale, after years of development and accumulation, the company has formed a strong comprehensive in terms of experience, management, technology, talents, customers, mechanisms, etc. Sex competitive advantages, especially in terms of "going out" market experience, brands, mid-to-high-end customer resources, etc. The company has more than 20 participating subsidiaries at home and abroad, and has formed a good market reputation. It ranks among the top in the overseas market segment in China's non-ferrous metals exploration technology services. With the upgrading and development of the global exploration industry, peer companies with weak competitiveness will be difficult to maintain, and the company's industry advantage will be further consolidated.
Mining rights development business has the characteristics of high investment, high returns and long-term. The discovery of a high-quality mineral rights requires years or even decades of dedicated work and a large amount of capital investment to achieve results or convert them into profits. The company is a resource-based mining group company. Mining rights development is of great strategic significance to the company's rare light metal business segment and lithium battery new energy business segment to obtain key mineral resource reserves and the company's long-term development.
In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 2.394 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.7%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 558 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 220.3%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 255%.
In the first quarter of 2022, revenue was 1.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 399.0% and a month-on-month increase of 84.96%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 775 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 866.3%, a month-on-month increase of 202.8%.
022 interim report, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.323 billion in the first half of the year, an increase of 663.85% year-on-year; and achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.274 billion in deducting non-operating items, an increase of 680.15% year-on-year.
5. The company now has
The company's Bikita mine in Zimbabwe has a mineral processing capacity of 700,000 tons per year. The company has fully released its existing production capacity since its acquisition and management mine in February 2022. In the first half of 2022, it produced a total of 31,806 tons of lithium permeable Feldspar concentrate. The company's Tanco mine in Canada has a mineral processing capacity of 120,000 tons per year. According to the production and operation plan, is carried out in an orderly manner. As the company's own mines produced by the company's Zimbabwe Bikita Mine and the Canadian Tanco Mine arrive in the factory one after another in the second half of 2022, the raw materials of the company's lithium salt production line will be further guaranteed.
is the manufacturer with the most complete cesium industry chain in the world, and has the ability to produce cesium garnet mining, processing, fine chemical products and provide product technical services. The company has the world's major high-quality cesium resources (Tanco mine in Canada, Bikita mine in Zimbabwe), the world's two major production bases (Winnipeg, Canada, Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province, China) and cesium formate recycling base (Aberdeen, UK, Bergen, Norway ). With the above advantages, we provide diversified and customized products and technical support to high-quality enterprises in many industries.
Company has formed a complete cesium business industry chain, covering cesium garnet mining, processing, fine chemicals and terminal consumer markets. The company's cesium salt processing technology has advanced and exquisite technology, forming a variety of cesium salt products, mainly including cesium carbonate , cesium sulfate , cesium nitrate , cesium hydroxide, cesium iodide and Cesium formate, etc., have many high-quality customer resources around the world.
is the only manufacturer and supplier of cesium formate worldwide. Cesium formate is currently mainly used in the oil and natural gas industry, and is used as drilling and completion fluids in drilling and completion operations of high-temperature and high-pressure oil and gas wells. Cesium formate has the characteristics of having high solubility, low viscosity, no solid phase, good thermal stability, high temperature resistance, non-corrosiveness, biodegradable, and pollution-free to the environment. Compared with other traditional drilling fluids and completion fluids, cesium formate has unparalleled advantages such as greatly improving oil production rate and drilling efficiency, reducing friction coefficient, reducing the risk of drilling, not prone to metal corrosion, and environmental protection. Broad application prospects.
rubidium salt products are mainly used in acrylonitrile catalysts, special glasses, micro high-energy batteries and crystal scintillation counters. The rubidium salt products produced by the company are mainly rubidium carbonate and rubidium nitrate. In addition, the company can also produce rubidium chloride and Rubidium salt products such as rubidium iodide , rubidium fluoride , rubidium hydroxide and metal rubidium. The company is the main supplier of rubidium salt products worldwide and is deeply trusted and recognized by users.
6. In the future, the company will actively reserve rare light metal mineral resources, focus on laying out emerging material industries such as lithium battery new energy materials and cesium rubidium, improve the upstream and downstream industrial chains, and continue to develop overseas solid mineral exploration and mining rights development. Build an international mining group company with the core businesses of the development and utilization of rare light metal resources, the production and supply of lithium battery new energy materials, solid mineral exploration and mining rights development.
In the development and utilization of rare light metal resources (cesium, rubidium, beryllium, etc.), we will increase market development efforts, develop high-value-added products, continue to improve the upstream and downstream industrial chains, maintain the world's largest cesium resource share and the cesium rubidium product market Leading the world's share.
In terms of lithium battery new energy materials production and supply, it has achieved self-sufficiency in lithium mineral resources, continued to expand the production capacity of new energy raw materials, and the supply of lithium battery raw materials has entered the first echelon in China.
In terms of solid mineral exploration, we ensure the normal production of the company's existing mines and continue to obtain excellent mineral resources for lithium, cesium, rubidium and other minerals worldwide. Provide geological exploration technical services to high-quality overseas customers and high-end customers, and become a world-class geological exploration enterprise.
In terms of mineral rights development, it has leveraged its professional advantages in geological exploration, actively promoted the cooperative development of owned and other mineral rights, focused on finding metal mineral rights for rare minerals and key minerals such as lithium, cesium, beryllium, tantalum, and done a good job in mineral rights development. Long-term strategic layout to realize and continue to expand the advantages of mineral resources.
Lithium salt business has developed rapidly, driving the company's performance to increase year-on-year. The development of the mine end matches the expansion of smelting capacity, and the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials has gradually increased. Mastering high-quality mines, the company has a stable leading position in cesium rubidium salt. As the company's own mining capacity and lithium salt production capacity are gradually put into production, the company's lithium salt production and sales are expected to further increase. With the continuous increase in the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials, the profitability of lithium salt products is expected to be further enhanced. The company's performance growth is expected to continue to benefit from the rising volume and profits of the lithium salt sector.
cesium rubidium salt continues to advance steadily, and cesium formate oil and gas exploration has great potential. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's cesium rubidium salt business continued to improve in the field of fine chemicals, with output value increasing by 22.32% year-on-year and profit increasing by 51.53% year-on-year. China Mining Resources is the only producer and supplier of cesium formate in the world. Affected by the expansion of downstream overseas oil and gas production, the company's cesium formate orders are very full. At the same time, domestic oil and gas exploration is constantly making efforts, and it is expected that cesium formate will be rapidly promoted in China and the market space is broad. Currently, the company reserves 24739bbl of cesium formate products worldwide, equivalent to 5,616 tons of cesium metal equivalent, which consumes 233 tons compared with 5,849 tons at the end of 2021. According to this consumption rate, the company's inventory of cesium formate can be used for more than 10 years.
7. Long-term investment
The company's lithium salt smelting capacity has expanded rapidly, the expansion of lithium concentrate is progressing smoothly, and the self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources has increased significantly. The company's cesium rubidium mine resource advantages continue, and its cesium rubidium salt and cesium formate businesses will continue to expand.The company has two large-scale mining cesium garnet mines Tanco and Bikita, which control more than 80% of the world's cesium rubidium resources. Due to the lack of resources from competitors, the company's market share will continue to increase in the future, and the businesses of cesium rubidium salt and cesium formate are expected to continue to expand.
As the absolute leader in the field of cesium rubidium, the cesium rubidium business will provide the company with stable cash flow support, lithium mine mergers and acquisitions + lithium salt production capacity expansion, with the soaring lithium salt prices, we believe that the company's performance will usher in further rapidity promote.
This round of accelerated expansion of capital expenditure of mineral resources starts in 2021, and the conversion cycle of capital expenditure of metal resources is generally more than 5 years. Therefore, we believe that before 2025, lithium resources will have strong supply constraints, superimposed on new energy vehicles Resonating with demand in the energy storage field, lithium prices will remain high.
8. Medium-term investment
New Bikita project concentrate self-sufficiency in the second half of the year, further enhancing profitability. The 60,000 tons of Bikita Lithium Feldspar concentrate has completed the export procedures (with a discount of 5,000 tons of LCE), of which the first batch of Bikita Lithium Feldspar concentrate will arrive in the port in the second half of the year, further enhancing the company's concentrate self-sufficiency level. , improve profitability.
In the medium and short term, lithium prices are still in an upward trend. The second half of the year is the peak season for new energy vehicle consumption, and demand is likely to grow beyond expectations. However, the lithium resource supply side considers the climbing cycle of new production capacity and the shipping cycle, and it is difficult to exceed expectations. From overseas, it is difficult to exceed expectations. Judging from the second quarterly reports of lithium resource companies, most of the production and new production capacity progress in the past year are low. The supply of lithium resources is still in short supply in 2022, and the lithium price can maintain the current price or above.
9. Short-term investment
Based on hot topic analysis, news stimulation, capital analysis, technical analysis, stock analysis, and main analysis in market analysis, investors should combine their own different funding properties, risk preferences, fund management, position control, etc. 100 people will formulate 100 completely different trading plans, so short-term investment is a very personalized field, has no common characteristics and cannot be shared. In addition, the platform compliance requirements, 1,000 words are omitted here. Those who are interested can go to Comment area to communicate and discuss, learn from each other, and grow together.
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