has been repeatedly slapped in the face by the market in the past two days, especially today when Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out and rebounded, hammerhead line was closed. Instead of changing the market downward, it sent a signal upward to increase the attack. So will the market and market go up or down tomorrow? How to fine-tune the response?
Look at the data first. The number of stocks in the two cities was 2,489, and the number of declining stocks was 2,180. Comparatively, there is not much difference in the strength of the long and short stocks, but for most friends, it may be a day when the index is not profitable. This is mainly because the 28 offensive and defensive positions are out of position. You will understand it if you look at the 28 divergence trends of the Shenzhen Component Index and the GEM Index .
In terms of sentiment, there were 66 stocks at the daily limit in the two cities, 3 stocks at the daily limit, and 63 stocks fell by more than 5%. The data performance cannot be deceptive. The number of stocks with daily limit has decreased, and the number of stocks with a drop of more than 5% has increased, right? Of course, the main risk is still concentrated on the compensation for losses in mid- and high-end stocks. It can be seen that the diversion effect of the second-category stocks on high-end stocks is beginning to be reflected.
Fortunately, the high-standard pagoda staged a ground floor. Although opened with no premium for , which suppressed the relay sentiment, the short-term space height was opened after the board was closed in late trading. The superimposed second-highest boards Sichuan Run and Lvkang both advanced to the 4th board. The short-term sentiment can still be maintained. There is a phenomenon that the strong stocks of oversold have rebounded one after another. Today can be said to be a day of performance by the old demon.
But is this situation a good thing or a bad thing? Although the overall short-term sentiment has stabilized, it is obviously more difficult for Lao Yao to start the second wave of market, so in this case, you still have to be prepared to switch styles. From Da Ge's point of view, today's Red Wednesday released three important signals. It is appropriate to increase the amount next, but how much and in which direction to increase is critical.
Signal 1: The short-term style switch is still the main tone, continue to focus on the big and let go of the small to defend instead of attack!
Today’s sector performance actually has signs. Although it is still the track stocks that are leading the rise, it is obvious that there are another group of figures. For example, virtual power plants have led the power grid equipment to lead the power industry, and consumer electronics have collectively exploded to assist. In addition, brokerage insurance and real estate start-up maintenance indexes have been stable. The rotation rhythm is still as fast as ever, but the idea of switching between high and low is obvious.
It can be said that this is the most active day after the fund level switch test disk , but the problem is also obvious. Today, the funds overflowing from automobiles and wind and solar new energy are not much. This is still the result of 's existing funds 's active position adjustment and trial trading, and the effect achieved by northbound funds assisting 7 billion. Although there are doubts about the sustainability later, it at least shows the short-term attitude of the funds. In response, it is better to be prepared to switch styles. The main tone is to focus on the big and let go of the small.
Signal 2: The Shanghai Composite Index has increased its volume and stabilized the short-term trend line, and the breakthrough signal has appeared.
Yesterday, surged higher and fell back, was suspected of attracting bullish counterattacks. As a result, the market bottomed out and rebounded from weak to strong yesterday, and the volume was enlarged compared to yesterday. To put it simply, here we still chose to change the market upward, and the closing price broke through and established the short-term trend line, which means that from August 4 to now, we are all in a rebound cycle. Since the market has chosen a direction, then we Just make extra efforts as planned.
Many friends may be confused about why they didn’t add when 3250 broke through. They had to wait until today when the short-term trend line was broken before adding. In fact, the standard for trading rules is here. Before the double moving average fails to break through and stand firm, there is no standard for overweighting, but it breaks through today. Regardless of whether it is a real breakthrough or falsely breaks through , you must respond accordingly. Trading according to rules can reduce subjective interference, which is the prerequisite for stable profits.
Signal 3: The nature of the rebound has been determined with high probability, and the test market is mainly for light positions and overweight.
Regarding the nature of the rebound here, when it closed at Zhongyang on August 11, I urgently sent you a technical deduction (three scenarios). When the market started to go sideways, I confirmed this for you again. The nature of the rebound (big B wave rebound), although it has not yet broken through 3308 points, the trend trading of and is definitely based on trend lines. The wave pattern is only an auxiliary analysis method, not a trading rule. This needs to be explained to everyone. clear.
Then the reason why I choose to increase my position and test the market tomorrow is that the closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high today, which means that this round of rebound has lasted more than 9 days. If it is a weak reaction in the C wave adjustment, time and space are obviously asymmetrical. , so wave pattern reset is a high probability event. Combined with the fact that the rebound has not exceeded 3300 points after 10 days, the speed does not meet the characteristics of the three main rising waves, so let’s look at the rebound of the big B wave first, but it is not suitable for full positions. It is only suitable to add 3 to the bottom position. Cheng, 5-6 Cheng warehouse trial trading response.
The significance of respecting the trend and abiding by the rules is that because the rhythm of the last decline of wave C was disrupted, the market here is a bit complicated. After all, I can't directly judge whether the adjustment has ended. The speed here is too slow and it is difficult to judge whether the market has entered directly. has been promoted to . But 50% of the position is enough to deal with it. The acceleration in the future cannot get rid of us; false breakthroughs and real temptations will not have a big impact on us.
Regarding tomorrow's market, the biggest hidden danger should be that it is the day when the main futures traders move positions and change the month, which is also the origin of the curse we often call Black Thursday. So don’t even think about the big rise. The probability of maintaining a shock and rebound rhythm here is high. I have given you a detailed explanation of the overweight position configuration and direction. I will make a blind guess tomorrow and look for a red Thursday. I will increase the price as planned during the intraday dips. For the specific direction, please read the long article in the early trading.
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