Cotton City Daily
Zheng Cotton Futures
On July 15, the overnight ICE cotton futures fell to the limit of . Zheng Cotton followed and fell . The CF2209 contract opened at 14,635 yuan/ton, and then increased its positions all the way down to a new low of 13,560 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the position was reduced and some losses were recovered, closing at 14215 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan/ton. Overall, the macro sentiment is relatively pessimistic, commodities are collectively operating under pressure, and Zheng Mian is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern.
New York futures price
html On July 14, the ICE October contract was 91.41 cents, down 400 points; the December contract was 83.71 cents, down 400 points; the trading volume was 39,096 hands, an increase of 7,403 hands. The decline in U.S. cotton signings last week disappointed the market, while the external market continued to fall and the US dollar index continued to rise, triggering more fund selling. ICE cotton futures fell to the limit again under heavy pressure. Inflation in the United States further intensified in June, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will step up its efforts to raise interest rates. The shadow of economic recession will intensify, and the cotton market will continue to be under pressure.Cotton market news
Cotton price tracking
On July 15, the average price of imported cotton to Hong Kong (M index) was 109.13 cents/pound, down 3.99 cents/pound from the 14th, discounted by 1% tariff import cost (excluding port fees) ) 17,883 yuan/ton, discounted sliding tax import cost (excluding port fees) 18,011 yuan/ton; the domestic average price of 3128 cotton (B index) is 16,499 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the 14th. Xinjiang cotton Shandong factory price of 3128B grade is 16,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the 14th; the national cotton basis index CNCottonJ (CF2209) is 854 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the 14th.
Cotton market news
Reserved cotton incoming
On July 15, the central reserve cotton incoming was listed for purchase of 6,000 tons (official weight), and the actual transaction was 6,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 100%. The average transaction price was 16,057 yuan/ton, down 229 yuan/ton from the previous day. The highest transaction price was 16,133 yuan/ton, and the lowest transaction price was 15,753 yuan/ton.
Monitoring report
According to the national cotton market monitoring system sampling survey, as of early July 2022, the average cotton inventory usage days of the sampled surveyed companies was approximately 30.2 days (including the amount of cotton imported to the port), an increase of 2.1 days month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 9.3 days. days, 3.7 days less than the average for the same period in the past five years (i.e., 2016-2021, excluding 2020, the same below). The national cotton industry inventory is estimated to be about 637,000 tons, an increase of 2.9% month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 29.0%, and a decrease of 14.4% compared with the average level of the same period in the past five years.
Domestic Textile
Since 2020, due to the shrinking global market and declining demand, the profits of China's textile industry have suffered throughout the epidemic and will continue to bear losses due to rising raw material prices. Foreign analysis reports show that China's textile industry has been suffering huge losses since the beginning of 2020 because the industry has been unable to increase product prices. In addition, the order volume of in China's textile industry this year has dropped by 40% compared with last year's .
At the same time, more than 90% of companies said that compared with the second half and fourth quarter of last year, the current order plan has been shortened, and nearly 59% of companies have order plans for 13 months. According to import and export data, the growth rate of China's clothing and home textile products has shown a relatively obvious slowdown. This year, most garment factory orders will be completed in September. Cotton spinning orders are mainly transferred to India, and clothing orders are mainly transferred to Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Cambodia and other countries. According to the report, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles recently conducted a survey on enterprises, and 85% of the enterprises said that customer orders have obviously migrated outward.
International Cotton Market
According to the latest forecast of India's CAI, India's cotton planting area will increase by 8%-12% in 2022, reaching 13.3-13.5 million hectares (the cotton planting area in 2021 will be 12 million hectares). The most obvious expansion is Gujarat , a year-on-year increase of 20%-25%. However, with several days of continuous rainfall in southern Telangana and central Maharashtra since early July, cotton planting progress has been greatly affected (for example, the cotton planting area in Telangana has not yet Reaching 50% of the expected target of 7 million acres), some international cotton merchants and Indian private cotton companies are worried that India’s cotton planting area will not reach the target predicted by CAI in 2022.
Despite this, according to the latest statistics from the Indian agricultural department, as of mid-July, the cotton planting area in India has exceeded the 10 million hectare mark (of which the northern cotton area Punjab was affected by the continued high temperature and drought weather. The cotton planting area exceeded nearly 10 million hectares. A new low in two years; Hayana is also far below the target set by the government), while sowing in the central and southern cotton areas is still in full swing.
U.S. cotton exports
The USDA report shows that from July 1 to 7, 2022, the net contract volume of U.S. upland cotton in 2021/22 was 2,313 tons, a decrease of 73% from the previous week and a decrease of 68% from the average of the previous four weeks. %, a new low this year. The net export contract volume of upland cotton in the United States for 2022/23 is 31,600 tons, and the upland cotton shipment volume for 2021/22 is 70,900 tons, a decrease of 17% from the previous week and a decrease of 14% from the average of the previous four weeks.
In 2021/22, the net contract volume of US Pima cotton was 295 tons, an increase of 43% from the previous week, and an increase of 36% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of Pima cotton in 2021/22 was 998 tons, a decrease from the previous week. 59%, a 40% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks.
