Source: Global Times [Global Times Comprehensive Report] The National Bureau of Statistics announced the economic "report card" for the first half of 2022 on the 15th: GDP in the first half of the year increased by 2.5% year-on-year, including a year-on-year increase of 0.4% in t

Source: Global Times

[Global Times Comprehensive Report] The National Bureau of Statistics 15 announced the economic "report card" for the first half of 2022: GDP in the first half of the year increased by 2.5% year-on-year, including a year-on-year increase of 0.4% in the second quarter. Although this number has dropped significantly compared with the "dazzling recovery" of China's economy last year, public opinion generally believes that this is mainly due to the fact that since this year, the international environment has become more complex and severe, the Ukrainian crisis has deepened and evolved, especially the frequent domestic epidemics. "Unexpected unexpected factors" have brought serious impact. As a result, some Western media have been pessimistic about China's economy, claiming that "China's economy can no longer become a global growth engine." However, many Chinese economists said in an interview with the " Global Times" on the 15th that many economic centers including the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta were hit by the epidemic in April and May. In some respects, even The impact was greater than when the epidemic broke out in 2020. However, in the second quarter, China's economy withstood the pressure and achieved positive growth, which was extremely difficult. Although the current domestic and international environment is more complex and severe, the added value of China's high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, especially solar cells and new energy vehicles, which increased by 31.8% and 111.2% year-on-year, indicating that China's economy and "Made in China" Not only has its core competitiveness not been weakened, but it has been further enhanced during the global crisis. Russian Satellite News Agency stated on the 14th that despite the tension in the political relationship between China and the United States and the West, Western capital investment in China is increasing. The strongest growth in investment occurred in the high-tech sector. In the first half of the year, the actual use of foreign investment in China's high-tech industries, high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 42.7%, 32.9% and 45.4% respectively. Bruder Muller, CEO of chemical giant BASF , recently told the German Handelsblatt: "China is a market with huge potential... We cannot do without it."

Resisted the pressure to achieve positive growth

China State Council News The office held a press conference on the morning of the 15th. Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive National Economic Statistics, introduced the performance of the national economy in the first half of the year. Preliminary calculations show that the GDP in the first half of the year was 356.2642 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29,246.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%.

"China's economic growth contracted sharply in the second quarter, and growth also slowed significantly in the first half of the year." Reuters said that this highlighted the severe impact of widespread epidemic control measures in many regions in China in April and May on industrial production. and consumer spending, causing huge losses to economic activity.

CNN (CNN) stated that China’s economic growth in the second quarter was the slowest quarterly growth since the first quarter of 2020. In 2020, China's economy suffered a sharp decline due to the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and other places, with GDP shrinking by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020. However, after China brought the epidemic under control, the economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter and GDP growth turned from negative to positive. In 2021, China's GDP will grow by 8.1%. According to reports, in March and April this year, due to the spread of the Omicron mutant strain, dozens of cities in China implemented strict lockdown measures, including Shanghai and Shenzhen, China's financial, shipping and industrial centers. Large numbers of residents have been confined to their homes, shops and restaurants have closed, and supply chains for industrial production across the country have been disrupted.

"China's economy began to rebound in June." Dow Jones Newswires said that as most places reopened their economies in early June, China's manufacturing and service industries showed signs of improvement. China's industrial output increased by 3.9% year-on-year in June, much higher than the 0.7% increase in May. What is particularly noteworthy is that retail sales, which have been sluggish, increased by 3.1% year-on-year in June, reversing the 6.7% decline in May.

Germany's Handelsblatt said experts expect China's industrial production to continue to rebound. Data released by China Customs on the 13th stated that exports grew strongly by 22% in June. Chinese factories are now working through a backlog of orders. However, many international institutions have recently predicted that many countries in the United States and Europe are in danger of recession, and the Chinese economy will inevitably face "strong pressure" from the shrinking international market.

Yao Jingyuan, a specially invited researcher of of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council and former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, told the Global Times on the 15th that when looking at China’s economic data, we must not only look at the level of a certain data, but also connect it to see the trend. China maintained good growth from January to February this year. The economy declined in March, declined sharply in April, marginally improved in May, and main indicators stabilized and rebounded in June. The entire first half of the year showed a "V-shaped" trend. The economic downturn that began in March and April was mainly affected by the epidemic. This epidemic mainly affected economically developed regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. The Yangtze River Delta accounts for 25% of the country's total economic output, and Guangdong Province accounts for 10%. In addition, 80% of the country's regions have supply chain connections with Shanghai, causing disruption to the national industrial and supply chains. So from some aspects, the impact of this epidemic on the economy is even greater than the impact of the epidemic in 2020.

Yao Jingyuan said that recently, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have frequently lowered the economic growth rates of the world and various countries this year and next year. Against this background, although China's growth figures of 2.5% in the first half of the year and 0.4% in the second quarter are low, they are hard-won, indicating that China's economy has withstood the test of unexpected factors and that China's economy is very resilient.

“The trend of development and upgrading has not changed”

Some Western media took the opportunity to sound bearish on the Chinese economy. "Washington Post" stated that China's economic growth was ahead of other major economies in the process of recovering from the epidemic last year. But at present, the United States and Western countries are basically fully open, while China still adheres to a dynamic zero-epidemic prevention policy. As more mutant strains emerge, this policy could increase economic devastation. " New York Times " stated that China's economic prospects are not that optimistic. The report quoted Harvard University Professor of Economics Rogoff as saying: "China can no longer become a global growth engine, and long-term fundamentals indicate that China's growth will slow down a lot in the next ten years."

Former Institute of World Economics, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations Minister Chen Fengying told a reporter from the Global Times that under the current sluggish global economic environment, the Chinese economy should focus on maintaining stable growth in all aspects, especially agricultural stability and security. China's agriculture grew by 4.5% in the first half of the year, and the country's total summer grain output increased by 1%, avoiding the impact of the global food crisis. She said that in the face of a more critical moment than in 2020, economic security and stability are more important aspects.

professor at Peking University School of Economics Cao Heping said that in fact, China's economy has been experiencing various shocks or external suppression in recent years, but it is completing its transformation amidst a series of crises. In the first half of the year, the added value of China's large-scale high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.6% year-on-year, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 20.2%, especially solar cells, new energy vehicles, etc., which increased by 31.8% and 111.2%, indicating that my country's development and upgrading trend has not changed. The economy and the core competitiveness of "Made in China" continue to strengthen.

"We cannot do without the Chinese market"

"Beijing is racing against time." Germany's "WirtschaftsWoche" said on the 15th that despite weak economic growth in the first half of the year, China's economic management is accelerating action. As of the end of June, a record 3.41 trillion yuan of new special bonds had been issued across China. The money will be used for infrastructure projects, especially investments in "new infrastructure", such as artificial intelligence, big data and the expansion of 5G. The Chinese government is turning these high-tech investments into growth engines.

"Global capital still believes in China as it did in the past." Russian Satellite News Agency said on the 14th that despite China's sluggish economic growth this year, foreign institutional investors are increasing investment in China's artificial intelligence, smart cities and autonomous vehicles. JPMorgan Chase , Temasek , etc. are all talking about expanding China's investment . Temasek said it will increase investment in promising Chinese technologies, focusing on semiconductors , big data, and artificial intelligence. These directions are also priorities in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. According to the report, despite the tense political relations between China and the United States and the West, Western capital investment in China is increasing.In the first five months of this year, China's economy absorbed US$87.77 billion in foreign investment, an increase of 22.6%. The strongest growth in investment occurred in the high-tech sector. In terms of origin, actual investment in China from South Korea, the United States, and Germany increased by 52.8%, 27.1%, and 21.4% respectively.

In fact, China's industrial upgrading and high-tech investments are paying off. A few days ago, Germany, a major manufacturing country, reported its first monthly foreign trade deficit in more than 20 years, with a deficit of 1 billion euros in May. Several other major manufacturing countries also basically have deficits: the United States had a trade deficit of US$104.3 billion in May; Japan had a deficit of US$17.8 billion in May, which was the tenth consecutive month of deficit; South Korea, which has had a surplus for more than 20 consecutive years The deficit in June was US$2.47 billion, and the trade deficit in the first half of the year reached US$10.3 billion. The German weekly " Der Spiegel " said with envy on the 13th that China's trade surplus soared to a record level of US$97.9 billion in June, far exceeding experts' expectations.

German Handelsblatt said that in June, BMW Group invested 2 billion euros to build a new factory in Shenyang. This is BMW ’s largest investment in China so far. Bruder Muller, CEO of German chemical giant BASF, also recently told Handelsblatt: "China is a market with huge potential. As the world's largest chemical company, we cannot do without it." He emphasized: "We support all Investments announced in China”

[Global Times special correspondent in Germany and Canada Aoki Tao Fang Global Times reporter Li Xue Chen Kang Yang Chen Zhen Xiang Liu Yupeng]