[Editor's note] This article is authorized by the author and reprinted from the public account "Mingshu Zatan". There is a lot of exciting content, welcome to pay attention.
1) On July 15, 2022, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 0.4%. Since China's GDP growth rate was 4.8% in the first quarter, China's economic growth rate in the first half of 2022 is actually 2.5%. It can be said that under the impact of and , China's economy is indeed facing great difficulties, and it is not easy to achieve such a result.
2) If you look at the " troika " that promotes economic growth, export performance is very eye-catching, with an increase of 9.4% in the first half of the year, and investment also increased by 6.1%, but consumption fell by 0.7%, and the decline in consumption was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. Related to offline consumption. This once again shows that the epidemic is the main downside risk currently facing China's economy.
3) China’s economic growth slowed significantly in the second quarter mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. However, do not interpret “affected by the epidemic” as “affected by anti-epidemic policies” . If China "lies flat" like Western countries, judging from the examples of these countries, the economic growth rate may not necessarily improve, but there is no doubt that the people will pay a huge price in health and life. It is impossible for any rational and common-sense person to use the GDP data of the second quarter to oppose the fight against the epidemic.
4) The world economy is in the "most dangerous stage" in 30 to 40 years. Maybe everyone should be aware of this and be prepared. Many people have memories of the 2008 international financial crisis. I personally believe that the current world economy faces greater risks than in 2008. In 2008, there were two favorable factors that allowed the world economy to recover from the crisis relatively quickly. First, the Federal Reserve implemented unprecedented zero interest rates and the so-called quantitative easing policy; second, China launched a "four trillion" economic stimulus plan. Today, the Federal Reserve has long exhausted all its monetary policy tools. Now U.S. inflation is at a 40-year high. Not only is it impossible for the Fed to "print money" anymore, it will radically raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet. , the Fed is not only unable to stimulate U.S. economic growth, but may trigger a U.S. economic recession. China has also learned from the experience and lessons of the last "flood irrigation" and "strong stimulus" policies, and it is impossible to implement another "four trillion" policy at present. More importantly, after the United States provoked competition between China and the United States, the international community no longer had the cooperative atmosphere of unity and joint efforts to overcome difficulties as it did in 2008. Instead, it was affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, U.S. unilateral sanctions, and the arrogance of the United States. The impact of unfavorable factors such as local decoupling and cutting off the supply of .
5) When the world economy is at its most dangerous moment in decades, countries are no longer competing on whose economic growth data is more eye-catching, but who can better survive the upcoming economic winter. The situation in developed economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe is not optimistic. IMF originally expected the U.S. economic growth to reach 3.7% this year, but in June this number was reduced to 2.9%. The IMF will release the latest version of its "World Economic Outlook" on July 26, which will most likely further lower the U.S. economic growth forecast for this year. The biggest risk facing the U.S. economy now is inflation , as well as the economic recession that may be triggered by the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, or even economic crisis . Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone, is not having a good time either. The Bundesbank also significantly lowered its forecast for Germany's economic growth this year from 4.2% in December last year to 1.9%. Including Germany, the euro zone economy is mainly affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. EU countries "cut themselves off" under the inducement of the United States. In order to punish Russia, they did not hesitate to engage in "economic suicide". This is the main reason for the current energy crisis, soaring inflation and declining economic growth in the Eurozone.
6) Now, everyone is asking, what will be the driving force for China’s economic rebound in the second half of the year? After the epidemic in Shanghai, Beijing and other places was brought under control, China's economic rebound has become obvious since June. In the second half of the year, this trend is likely to remain.It is currently very difficult to achieve the full-year growth target of 5.5%, but as long as there is no more "lockdown-style epidemic", the economic rebound in the second half of the year is still worth looking forward to.
7) Therefore, in the second half of the year, the core of China’s economic rebound will still be “scientific epidemic prevention.” has two meanings: First, we must learn from the experiences and lessons learned by different places such as Guangdong, Shanghai, and Beijing in responding to the epidemic in the first half of this year, and we must not let the epidemic get out of control, and we must not go to the stage of "large-scale city closures" again. One step; second, areas without epidemics should make good use of the current "window period" and quickly prepare for nucleic acid testing, flow control, and cross-regional circulation of people, so as to prepare for offline consumption and tourism. Be prepared for an industry rebound.
8) I traveled from Beijing to Shanxi in the past two days, and I have three profound feelings: First, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is huge. Our family arrived at the Xuanhua service area at four or five o'clock yesterday afternoon. There were only two or three cars in this four-star service area for more than an hour. The restaurant had long been closed, and we were the only one in the supermarket. When the security guard at the door saw us, he kept saying, "It's been three years, it's been three years...". He told us that the Xuanhua service area used to be very lively. Second, we were almost at the same time, got off the expressway, registered, and queued up to do the nucleic acid test. The overall process was relatively smooth, taking about thirty or forty minutes. But if domestic tourism is to resume and large-scale cross-regional flows begin, this efficiency will be far from enough. I am afraid that various places will have to greatly expand the capacity of nucleic acid testing in places such as exiting highways, exiting airports, and exiting train stations. Third, the summer vacation has begun, but there are not many tourists in Yungang Grottoes, so the impact of the epidemic on domestic tourism is still very large.
9) Now, to boost the economy, the key is to create conditions for offline consumer services and large-scale cross-regional domestic movement of people on the basis of normalized prevention and control. For example, some people have suggested that nucleic acid testing information, health code information, etc. should be unified across the country, and that each province should not be separated. Theoretically, I am in a low-risk area in Beijing and can move freely and conduct offline consumption. As long as I have no additional risk exposure experience during my trip out of Beijing, I should also be able to move freely and conduct offline consumption across the country. Just because I left Beijing, my risk level does not automatically rise. This is unscientific. In order to revive cross-regional mobility across the country, it is imperative to implement a "national game of chess" for epidemic prevention.
10) Regarding the recent problems with rural banks in Henan and Anhui, as well as the "cutoff" of home buyers in some areas, it is necessary to deal with it as soon as possible. The key is to protect the legitimate rights and interests of the people, maintain social stability, and prevent similar problems from spreading to other parts of the country. However, as far as rural banks and "cutoff of supply" are concerned, these two matters have attracted a lot of attention online, but the systemic risks they bring are actually not large.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I have been engaged in international financial news reporting for a long time. As far as my personal feelings are concerned, the current world economic situation is indeed very bad. Next, geopolitical turmoil, especially the major power confrontation provoked by the United States with Russia and China, will bring about very serious security and economic risks. At the same time, it is highly likely that the U.S. economy will experience a thunderstorm, and it is time for the Federal Reserve’s “magic” to be revealed. Against this background, it is difficult for China's economy to be immune. However, China's economic situation is still relatively stable among the world's major economies. This is definitely not "singing a high note", but a conclusion reached after objectively comparing the economic situations of the United States, Europe, Japan and China.
In the end, whether it is for the Chinese country or the Chinese people, there is a way to get through the tailwinds, and there are ways to get through the headwinds, and life must go on. At this time, we must maintain reasonable expectations. After the crisis, the person and country that is still standing in the end will be the winner.
