As housing prices have fallen like a prairie fire, it has attracted the attention and attention of regulators. Huzhou , Heze , Shenyang, Huizhou , Tangshan , Guizhou and other 22 cities have issued "limiting orders" to curb housing prices. To maintain a downward trend and stabilize housing prices, the focus is on the sales price not being lower than 15% or 10% of the registered price.
Sales continue to decline
Let’s first look at the cause. Statistics from CRIC Research Center’s “Summary and Outlook for the First Half of 2022” show that the cumulative performance of the top 100 real estate companies in the industry from January to May dropped significantly by 52.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 27.8% from the same period in 2020. %. The cumulative performance of nearly 80% of the top 100 real estate companies fell by more than 30% year-on-year.
In the first half of 2022, the average monthly transaction area of new residential properties in the top 100 cities was approximately 30.99 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42%; a decrease of 31% compared with the average of the same period from 2019 to 2021, and the overall market sentiment is very low.
With the recurrence of the epidemic and the successive thunderstorms of many real estate companies, consumers have insufficient purchasing power, and their trust in real estate companies has begun to decrease, resulting in a decrease in transactions.
Another supporting data for the decline in purchasing power is the consumption data released by National Bureau of Statistics : From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the society fell by 1.5% year-on-year.
Cash is King Loans have decreased
and people who are willing to deposit have increased significantly. The latest financial data for the first half of the year released by the central bank show that in the first half of 2022, new deposits increased by 10.33 trillion yuan, a new high; while new loans were 2.18 trillion yuan. , a new low. Among them, the new medium- and long-term household loans directly related to housing were only 1.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 54.5% compared with the same period in 2021.
Under the trend of difficulties in sales and financing, in order to improve the utilization rate of repayment, real estate companies can only carry out "price-for-volume", sell at reduced prices, and liquidate as soon as possible. Even CCRE Real Estate , in order to help farmers, launched a marketing campaign targeting rural customers in Henan area with wheat and garlic discounts for part of the house payment.
However, the event was stopped 2 days after its launch.
In order to save real estate companies, other methods have been introduced to allow public officials to buy houses.
Recently, many cities such as Changchun in Jilin, Huanggang in Hubei, Bazhong in Sichuan, and Tonglu in Zhejiang have launched a similar " group purchase house purchase". The main content focuses on encouraging real estate development companies to use the group purchase model to sell commercial housing, and relevant organizations use the group purchase method to purchase houses. . For group purchases of more than 20 people, the development company will give a discount of no less than 3% of the total individual house payment.
Such groups have strong purchasing power and are high-quality customers in group purchases of houses. Buying a house can be regarded as serving the people and will have a certain impact on promoting market popularity.
Looking at the real estate market, most of the land in various cities is currently owned by state-owned real estate companies, and now the houses are taken over by public officials. It can be seen how desperate the property market has become.
Looking at the consumer market overall, this group of people is only a very small number in every city, and there is a long way to go to save real estate.
Regarding the trend of real estate, independent economist Ma Guangyuan said: There is still a lot of room for increasing real estate regulation, and we must seize the limited time window. Regarding the future trend of real estate, the last thing we should worry about is that housing prices will rebound in a retaliatory manner. The probability of housing prices rising sharply again is zero.
