disk review
On the last trading day, A-shares shrank and closed in the red.
After many days of long and short games, A shares ushered in a wave of market adjustments this week as scheduled. Yesterday morning, the three major indexes diverged at the opening. After a period of downward inertia, the indexes immediately launched a counterattack. The market divergence widened again throughout the day, with the three major indexes showing signs of slight decline in late trading. Individual stocks rose by 2,600, and market sentiment began to rebound from previous days. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite 500 closed down 0.25%, the CSI 300 closed up 0.44%, and the CSI 500 closed up 0.54%.
Summary of the core logic of Cinda Futures Research Institute
Specifically, under the rapid rotation of market styles last month, all sectors experienced varying degrees of rise, and the market began to enter the final stage of valuation repair. Yesterday, sectors such as automobiles and energy storage that had experienced deep corrections in the early stage once again led the upward trend, while biomedicine and other sectors performed weakly. In terms of trading volume, the volume of the two markets fell to a large extent yesterday, indicating that the number of reluctant sales is increasing under the volatile market, and market funds are waiting for a signal of stabilization.
In terms of news, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released this week hinted at the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates by 75bp in July. Although the U.S. stock market closed continuously after fully digesting the negative emotional impact, the market is still controversial about the economic recession. Not only that, the anxiety in the options market also implies that the real signal to stop the decline of US stocks has not yet appeared. On the other hand, the pound exchange rate suffered another impact yesterday due to political changes. Amid concerns about high inflation and economic recession, the macro outlook for the future international situation is still unclear.
In the short term, the adjustment of the stock market is not over yet. Especially under the global changes, the market's confidence in macro policies has been shaken. Recently, under the inflationary pressure brought about by rising pig prices, the central bank has carried out bulk reverse repurchase operations of 3 billion yuan for four consecutive days, and domestic monetary policy has begun to show signs of turning.
Previously we said that one of the keys to external suppression of A-shares lies in capital fluctuations due to exchange rate changes. If foreign capital flows out again in large quantities, the index may end its mild sideways consolidation and usher in a larger correction. Although we believe that macroeconomic control based on the situation will be conducive to maintaining the long-term stability of the currency exchange rate, in the short term it has also raised market concerns about whether the capital market will usher in changes. Therefore, conservative investors are advised to continue to wait patiently.
In the mid-term, the latest prevention and control announcement above shows that the communication itinerary card inquiry time range will be adjusted from 14 days to 7 days. Although there are signs of a slight recurrence of the epidemic in various places in the past few days, with the gradual relaxation of national prevention and control policies, the biggest impact of the epidemic on economic activities has passed. In addition, what needs to be focused on this month is the performance disclosure of individual stocks in the interim report. In the third quarter, the domestic economy will usher in a phase of accelerated sequential growth, and the market’s deduction logic for the “post-epidemic” era will be difficult to falsify.
strategy recommendation
In the short term, the market has not yet completed digestion of the negative aspects. Short-term investors are advised to reduce their positions on rallies. In the mid-term, it is difficult to falsify the expectation that the fundamentals of the stock index will recover. During dips, you can enter the market in batches and place multiple orders. Overall, you will maintain a cautious and bullish trading approach. In terms of varieties, it is recommended to pay attention to IH/IF.
