Author: WeChat public account ~ Lao Meng’s investment analysis circle
Investment is not about making predictions, but using strategic responses. Half of 2022 has passed, and it’s time for Lao Meng to conduct a mid-year review and outlook. During the decline and deep V rebound in the first half of the year, how did the investment perform? What are the right and wrong judgments made at the beginning of the year? What trends will there be in the second half of the year? In this mid-year inventory, let’s summarize and revise it.
Let’s look at the judgment at the beginning of the year. This is reflected in the historical article "What will happen to the market in 2022?" Know the trend of the next year in advance! 》can be searched in. I am overall optimistic about the stock market in 2022 and believe that the stock market will rise well throughout the year. The logic is that the currency and social financial environment will improve, and the domestic economy will also shift from recession to recovery; the investment strategy will shift from last year's conservative strategy An aggressive strategy. Now it seems that the stock market is not good in the first half of the year. So far, the CSI 300 has fallen by 9%, the GEM has fallen by 14.7%, and the and Shanghai Composite Index that retail investors like to watch has fallen by 6.4%. It even fell out of stock before May. The reasons for the bear market are the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the domestic epidemic, which were completely unexpected. Therefore, from now on, the judgment made at the beginning of the year is completely wrong.
There is no problem with the investment logic at the beginning of the year. The country has been undergoing counter-cyclical economic adjustment, the monetary environment has continued to relax, and the scale of social financing has gradually increased, and the economy is still stabilizing. Therefore, there is no problem in judging the general trend of investment. This is also the support of the future market. It is just that the process has been slowed down by unexpected events. As for the investment strategy turning to be more radical, the operation was adjusted once the land volume appeared in February, and the proportion of equity stocks was increased, which was equivalent to picking up some cheap chips in the decline. The V-type rebound after April has not yet made a move in terms of large-scale asset allocation, but has only made arrangements in a small number of individual investments; does not need to be anxious here, there are some misses, but the overall impact will not be great. The difference is only 2-3%, and there are still opportunities in the future. To sum up, the judgment on the stock market results was wrong, but there was no problem with the investment logic throughout the year, and the investment strategy also ensured that some opportunities were seized and larger risks were avoided.
Specifically speaking, the income of the White Tiger portfolio in the asset allocation is negative 2.8% this year, and the maximum decline is 9.7%; the income of the Qinglong portfolio this year is 1.8%, and the maximum drawdown is 7.2%; the basic version of the assets The return of the allocation this year is negative 3.6%, and the maximum drawdown is -10.5%; as for the DIY asset allocation, due to many adjustments, this year's return and drawdown are similar to those of the White Tiger portfolio. Judging from the income from asset allocation, it is normal for there to be no positive income when the market was not good in the first half of the year. In fact, judging from the results, it has significantly outperformed the market average, and the losses and retracements have been reduced by more than half. In this way, when the market retraces significantly, you will not be afraid to run away, and your mentality will be better than those that fell by more than 20-30%. People are much better; in fact, the most difficult thing in investing is panic and running away. One function of asset allocation is to use methods to reduce the test of human fear.
Of course, many people will also post pictures of themselves making a lot of profits this year, which makes those who are still losing money envious. In fact, Lao Meng seems to think that it is not necessary. Investment is a marathon, not a 100-meter race. There are always people who can guess or do it right in the short term, but this is just a deception. The saying "one who doubles his stock in three years will be few" is because the person who does the right thing in the short term is often not the same person every time. Most people who want to invest and make money still rely on strategies that have a long-term chance of winning; short-term predictions or correct methods, in most cases only allow you to see the good side. Even if the methods have certain effects, most people do not have the ability. Do it. For example, just to mention one, Lao Meng also made a 150% profit from China Pharmaceuticals in March, but it is not about how accurate the prediction or stock selection is, but through the long-term value investment method, the initial four-year layout, and now one time Just sexual gain.
Let’s talk about the bond market. At the beginning of the year, it was judged that the bond market would be difficult to be as bullish as last year. This year is basically a dull market. The logic is that economic recovery will lead to an increase in capital demand and will drive up market interest rates. In addition, the Federal Reserve ’s Raising interest rates will also put upward pressure on domestic ten-year government bond interest rates. Looking now, this judgment is accurate. The domestic ten-year treasury bond interest rate has risen from 2.805 at the beginning of the year to 2.865 now, which is basically a sideways fluctuation, so the bond's income is average; E Fund China Bond's income this year is only 1.43%, which is only 2.9% for the whole year. , that is, one of its bond interest income. Therefore, as mentioned in the subsequent corresponding strategies, reducing the bond duration of is also an accurate operation.
The third is the judgment of gold and commodities. At the beginning of the year, I was not optimistic about gold, mainly because it was at a high level, and there was also the huge pressure from U.S. bonds to rise; now, gold has fallen by 1.2% this year, and even the conflict between Russia and Ukraine failed to pull off a sustained upward trend, so at the beginning of the year The judgment is still correct. As for commodities, it was judged at the beginning of the year that the procyclicality has passed, and a decline in the future is inevitable; now looking at the situation of non-ferrous metals, it has only increased by 0.9% this year, and there is no performance. The judgment in this area is basically correct, and there are no big Vs. Said inflation will drive commodities to take off. As for crude oil, it was a big mistake. At the beginning of the year, it was judged that it would not exceed 80 US dollars. In fact, under the influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it directly soared to more than 100 US dollars. However, this sudden impact is not suitable for investment.
After finishing the judgment at the beginning of the year, I finally want to talk about my views on the trend in the second half of the year. For the stock market, the logic of the V-shaped rebound after April is to be supported by the recovery of capital liquidity. Now that the indexes have basically returned to the end of February, the mission has been basically completed; then the subsequent logic of the stock market depends on the improvement of the economy. and corporate performance, and their changes will most likely not be reflected until the end of the third quarter. The economy in the second half of the year will still focus on recovery, social integration will gradually improve, and PPI is also falling, which is also a sign of the economy turning from recession to recovery; therefore, we are still optimistic about the stock market throughout the year. Compared with specific industries, allocation The certainty of the index is greater. In terms of investment strategy, we still follow a more aggressive style and pick up bargaining chips in the bottom area amidst the upcoming sharp market fluctuations.
continues to be unfavorable about the bond market, and earnings in the second half of the year will be flat or even lower. Therefore, in terms of investment strategy, the main focus is to reduce the duration of bonds, that is, sell long-term bonds and hold short-term bonds or cash. We are still not optimistic about gold and commodities; gold will continue to fall under the influence of rapid interest rate hikes; while commodities will be affected by the global economic recession and will not perform well. Don’t think that U.S. inflation will lead to the arrival of the commodity cycle. In fact, it is quite the opposite. The surge in crude oil usually occurs in the final stage when inflation turns to recession. On the contrary, it heralds the complete end of the strong cycle.
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