This article is only for recording your own investment history and is not recommended as a basis for everyone.
USD hike rate . If the RMB does not raise interest rates, it means that the RMB depreciates and the US dollar appreciates. Then some funds in the Chinese market will carry out this risk-free cash out, exchange RMB for USD, and then exchange it for RMB after the US dollar appreciates. In this way, one appreciation and the other depreciates, there will be more arbitrage space during the period.
Therefore, as long as the expectation of a US dollar rate hike is, the possibility of RMB to exchange for US dollars will not stop. The impact on the Chinese stock market is that the funds in the stock market will decrease, because these arbitrage funds must seize this risk-free arbitrage opportunity. These funds may not necessarily escape from China, but will be converted into US dollars. Therefore, once the US dollar starts to raise interest rates, these arbitrage funds (which are likely also domestic funds in China) will definitely increase their efforts to exchange for the US dollar. It turns out that part of these funds is profitable in the stock market, and partly in other areas, such as hoarding.
Once the stock market funds are withdrawn, the stock market will fall. The impact on the country's foreign exchange has nothing to do with our small and medium-sized investors, so we will not consider it. But the impact of the stock market will become increasingly greater, which will eventually lead to a sharp decline in the stock market.
So the return of US dollar interest rate hike is not good for the Chinese stock market. The relationship between them can be expressed by negative or inverse correlation. In layman's terms, it is the opposite trend. The US dollar appreciates, the Chinese stock market falls, the US dollar depreciates, and the Chinese stock market rises. When will the $0 peak at
reach its peak? It is most likely that the Chinese stock market will bottom out. Although it is not certain whether it will be at the same time, it will at least be ahead or behind.
Therefore, I estimate that the US dollar will have to raise interest rates once before the Chinese stock market can bottom out in advance. When the US dollar falls, the Chinese stock market will start a road to rise. Because at that time, arbitrage funds will be exchanged back to RMB and enter the stock market again, so the Chinese stock market will bottom out in advance before the US dollar can peak.
Our conclusion is: once the US dollar starts its interest rate hike, the funds in our stock market must be withdrawn as soon as possible. A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall and can appropriately exchange it for US dollar arbitrage, because this is the safest transaction proved by facts over the years.
