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[Coking coal market review]
This week's coking coal 09 contract fluctuated widely, and as of the close, The futures price closed at 2280.5 yuan/ton, with the futures price falling by 7.5 yuan/ton, or 0.33%.
[Important Coking Coal Information]
The scope of the second round of coke price increases and decreases this week has expanded, the spot market is relatively pessimistic, and the negative feedback from the industry chain has intensified. The raw coal output of the 53 sample coal mines counted by Fenwei Energy was 6.0806 million tons, a decrease of 80,100 tons from last week. The raw coal output has been relatively stable recently and it is difficult to experience large fluctuations in the short term. This week Mysteel counted samples of 110 coal washing plants across the country: the operating rate was 73.66%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous period; the average daily output was 612,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons; the raw coal inventory was 1.9801 million tons, an increase of 57,300 tons; the clean coal inventory 1.9983 million tons, an increase of 76,100 tons. The operating rate of coal washing plants is temporarily stable, and it is difficult for supply to increase significantly in the short term. In terms of imports: Currently, the number of customs clearance vehicles at Ganqimaodu Port has rebounded to around 530 vehicles, the number of customs clearance vehicles at Mandula Port has rebounded to around 250 vehicles, and the number of customs clearance vehicles at Ceke Port has remained at around 100 vehicles.
At present, more than 850 vehicles have been cleared at the three major customs clearance ports, which is a new high for the year. It is still expected to pick up further in the future. The steady recovery of Mongolian coal imports will alleviate the tight supply of domestic main coking coal. On the demand side: the first round of coke lifting has landed, and the scope of the second round of lifting has expanded. Jiaoqi's profits continue to decline, and Jiaoqi has a pessimistic view of the market in the later period. According to the latest statistics from Mysteel, as of the week of June 30, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking companies was 77.63%, a decrease of 1.17% from the previous period. The average daily output of the entire sample was 1.1253 million tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons from the previous period. In terms of inventory: the overall coking coal inventory was 24.4521 million tons, a decrease of 105,300 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 0.43%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.49%. [Coking coal trading strategy] [Coke market review] According to Mysteel tracking, from the end of June to July, a total of 10 blast furnaces of Tangshan and surrounding areas were planned to be overhauled and production reduced. The total overhaul volume was 13,460m³, which affected the average daily hot metal production by about 33,700 tons (including 4 blast furnaces for capacity replacement). elimination of production capacity). At present, most steel mills in Tangshan are at a loss in gross profit. With more steel mills undergoing maintenance in the future, molten iron production will continue to fall.In terms of inventory: In the week of June 30, the overall coke inventory was 9.6091 million tons, a decrease of 39,300 tons from last week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.41%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.14%. The current overall inventory is still at a low level during the same period.
The decline in coking coal futures prices is mainly due to weak terminal demand and intensified negative feedback from the industry chain. At present, the profits of the entire industry chain are still concentrated on coking coal. According to statistics from Fenwei Energy, the current profit of coking coal is 1,200 yuan/ton. After the first round of increase and decrease of 300 yuan/ton, the losses of coking companies have worsened. And the downstream steel mills are currently Profits remain low, and if reasonable profits are not allocated to the downstream, they will still demand profits from the upstream coking coal, suppressing coking coal prices. Coupled with the steady recovery of Mongolian coal imports, and expectations for improvement in supply-side deposits, the upward momentum of futures prices is weak, and short-term futures prices are still biased. Weak operation, the bottom will pay attention to the support near the previous low.
The coke 09 contract fluctuated widely this week. As of the close, the futures price closed at 3,009 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 9 yuan/ton, or 0.3%.
[Important Coke Information]
This week, the scope of the second round of coke price reduction of 200 yuan/ton has been expanded, and it is expected to be implemented in the short term. Due to the decline in the spot price of main coking coal , coking profits have improved. Mysteel statistics show that the profits of 30 independent coking companies in the week ending June 30 were -42 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton from last week. tons, coking enterprises are still in a state of loss. Supply side: Due to the losses of coking companies, coking companies are more willing to raise prices, and the operating rate has declined. According to the latest statistics from Mysteel, as of the week of June 30, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking companies was 77.63%, which was 77.63% compared with the previous period. down 1.17%. The average daily output of the entire sample was 1.1253 million tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons from the previous period. Demand side: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel plants surveyed by Mysteel was 80.79%, a decrease of 1.13% from last week, and an increase of 16.91% year-on-year; the average daily hot metal production was 2.3596 million tons, a decrease of 36,900 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 193,300 tons year-on-year.
[Coke Trading Strategy]
Judging from the production of molten iron, with the increase in blast furnace maintenance, the production of molten iron will continue to fall, and the support on the demand side will gradually weaken. In the case of weak terminal demand, the negative feedback of the industrial chain continues, and futures prices will still run weakly. The following will focus on the previous low support.
