Bankers are a special group in the stock market. They have strong financial strength, well-informed sources of information and a professional trading team. The possibility and magnitude of profits in the stock market are unmatched by ordinary retail investors. Therefore, most of the stocks that market makers intervene in will have a relatively large increase.
Because of the strong power of bankers, many retail investors will choose to pay attention to the trends of bankers when trading, and decide their own operation methods based on the direction of the bankers' operations. This is a very good idea, but in actual transactions, investors will find that the ideal is very full and the reality is very skinny. The core of the banker's operation itself is to deceive retail investors, so they will deliberately set up long traps in the market to lure retail investors into the trap. If ordinary retail investors do not have excellent skills in following the banker and blindly follow the banker to buy, they will inevitably suffer huge losses.
However, bankers are also investors in this market, and they must also follow the trading principles in this market. Investors can first have a comprehensive understanding of the banker and understand the deceptions commonly used by the banker; then they can understand the banker's trading objectives, trading techniques and market characteristics at every step of the entire process; finally, they can formulate reasonable follow-up strategies from their own perspective. Banker strategy.
Why does the bottom limit often release huge amounts? Because stock is consolidating at the bottom in stages, most of the chips are concentrated at the bottom. If the daily limit is directly raised on a certain day, it means that all the chips below will make a profit, and there will be a need to cash out profits in the latent market, so the selling pressure is huge.
Many demon stocks The first few daily limit boards after the bottom are basically bad boards. The bad boards are due to the great differences between the long and short sides. As individual stocks rise and gain recognition from more investors, the long-short differences gradually decrease and gradually converge to a consensus, and will eventually catch up to the top with accelerated shrinkage.
After all, there are only a few demon stocks. The huge daily limit at the bottom of most stocks can easily open lower in the next morning. Short-term fluctuations in stock prices are driven by emotions. If market sentiment is high and there are a lot of funds engaged in short-term activities, the probability of a daily limit and a premium the next day will be high. However, A shares bears are long and bulls are short. High market sentiment only accounts for a small amount of time, about 2/10. Under normal circumstances, only 2/10 of a year has market conditions, and the rest of the time is volatile. Therefore, in the long run, the probability of opening lower on the day after the huge daily limit is relatively high. The large-volume daily limit at the bottom of
is often a signal to start, but if a huge amount is released, it needs to be considered from multiple aspects. It is possible that the main force closed the market to ship goods. It may be that the market sentiment was relatively poor that day. Most stocks fell and rose against the trend. This will naturally bring unusually large selling pressure. It may also be that individual stocks are speculating on hot topics. Hot money ignited the stock price, and the main force and profit makers took advantage of the trend to sell the stock.
To sum up, the huge price limit at the bottom is caused by excessive selling pressure. If the willingness of bulls to buy is relatively low in the early trading the next day, there is a high probability that it will open lower. If it is better, it will pull up and let you escape. Opportunities, if the market sentiment is poor, it may continue to fall.
Several common behaviors of large-volume escapes in volume and price
1. versus reverse Large-volume pull-up trap
versus reverse volume is a handicap phenomenon that can often be seen. The method used by the main force to raise the stock price depends on the degree of its control. If the banker's position is limited, he usually does not dare to drag out the market for too long. In this case, bookmakers often like to increase the volume. When raising the stock price, the main force is buying and selling during the market. Through this large order transaction advantage of against , the stock price is pushed up.
During this process, the main force made full use of people's inertial thinking of increasing volume and rising prices. While pulling up, they continued to trade heavily and continued to release large trading volumes to create the illusion of strong buying power and attract off-site to follow suit. Enter the disk , and finally achieve the purpose of taking advantage of the opportunity to ship. When the main force holds a small proportion of positions, it will often use the method of increasing the reverse volume, which can not only save the main force's funds, but also stimulate market sentiment.
Case: Analysis of the reverse volume increase trap - Zhongyuan Environmental Protection (000544)
As shown in the picture of Zhongyuan Environmental Protection (000544), the stock started to rise from a low of 9.03 yuan. After more than 4 months of rising, it reached the highest It rose to 15.15 yuan, an increase of nearly 70%. After the stock entered the rising channel, the trading volume continued to increase, and there was an obvious callback in the middle of the rise, thus cleaning out investors who had made profits in the early stage. Then it started to rise again. After reaching the top, the stock price showed signs of reversal. However, after a short fall, the stock price was sharply pulled up, the trading volume increased sharply, and the stock price exceeded the previous high. This time the stock price was not the true intention of the dealer. intention.
Market makers take advantage of the inertial thinking of investors as volume increases and prices rise. When raising the stock price, they continue to make large-scale moves and continue to release large trading volumes to create the illusion of strong buying power, so as to attract outside followers to enter the market and take advantage of the opportunity to exit. goods. The trend of short-term volume increase and price increase can often quickly stimulate market sentiment, because the main positions are not large and can often complete the delivery of goods amidst the noise of short-term optimism. This way of pulling up is called pulling up backwards, because part of the enlarged trading volume is caused by the dealers of countering . Therefore, when the stock price has risen a lot and a huge amount of is released at a high level or even a daily amount of is released to increase the price, investors should pay attention to reducing or clearing their positions. The large volume at this time is most likely caused by dealers shipping against Caused.
2. The trap of heavy volume breakthrough after a long period of trading
Consolidation means that the trading of stocks is extremely inactive for a period of time (such as one month, three months, etc.) and is not paid attention to by the market. The stock price mostly trades in a relatively narrow price range. Fluctuations, the market amplitude is small, and the direction is difficult to grasp. This stage is also the time when investors are most confused. The long-term consolidation that
will introduce here means that the stock price forms a box-shaped consolidation platform on the way down. When the stock price suddenly breaks this consolidation pattern, investors should pay more attention to confirm whether it is a true breakthrough. In the market, the emergence of this phenomenon is actually a trap set by many bookmakers using trading volume. After a long period of trading, the main force knows that a forced upward attack will not be effective. If the long-term consolidation continues and no long themes can be found, there may even be potential bad news that has been known to the main force. Therefore, in order to get out quickly in a short period of time, the market makers resorted to using their own chips after a long period of trading, causing the illusion that the trading volume of enlarged , attracting the attention of short-term speculators, and inducing some investors to follow blindly.
At this time, the dealer just rolled up his own stock at the start. In the process of pushing up, many people chasing the increase took a large number of sell orders from the dealer. Those investors who did not buy the stock when chasing the rise and then placed their buying orders strengthened the power of buying and provided opportunities for market makers to ship. This is how bookmakers use the generally recognized principle of increasing volume and increasing prices to create an illusion and achieve the purpose of shipping.
case: analysis of the trap of large-scale breakthrough after a long period of trading - Tianmao Group (000627)
As shown in the picture, the stock price of Tianmao Group (000627) rebounded on the way down, and then traded sideways for more than a month. The stock price fluctuates less and trading volume gradually shrinks. At the end of the sideways market, increased in volume and increased. Is this a true breakthrough or is a false breakthrough of ? Investors should conduct comprehensive research and judgment based on time-sharing charts. When the stock broke through, it showed an instantaneous pull-up during the session, and then large sell orders appeared, and the stock price continued to fall. This indicates that this breakthrough is a trap for the dealers to attract more investors to buy, while they secretly ship the goods.
3. High-volume breakthrough trap
When the stock price breaks through upward with heavy volume at a high level, it is most likely a false breakthrough, and investors will understand it as long as they think about it a little. The stock price has already risen to a certain extent in the early stage. Is the upward breakthrough at this time a continuation of the upward trend? Where does the huge amount come from? This scam can often be discovered after a few rhetorical questions. When the stock price of
consolidates at a high level and breaks through to the upside, it is obvious that the huge volume is jointly traded by the market makers who are eager to leave the market and the followers who are eager to enter the market. The market makers use the large-volume upside trend that retail investors are familiar with to trick retail investors into intervening.For the dealer to flee at a high level, someone must take over the goods at a high level. If the dealer is optimistic about the market outlook, there is no need for him to put in a huge amount, he can just increase the amount in a small way. Therefore, the only possibility is that the dealer reduces the weight and flees. Therefore, when looking at the market, you must first look at the trading volume.
case: analysis of high-volume breakthrough trap - Shen Tianma A (000050)
Shen Tianma A (000050) as shown in the picture, there was an adjustment when the stock price reached the top, but as time went by, the stock price has not been able to break through Early highs. Suddenly one day the stock price rises by a huge amount and then falls all the way. For investors who are chasing the rise, they have finally caught the "first train" on the way down by buying. If they don't get out, they can only get more and more. deep.
How to judge whether the stock price rise is true or false?
stock price changes are reflected by increases and decreases. The rise and fall we are talking about here does not refer to small fluctuations that rise or fall a little every day, but refers to sustained periodic fluctuations in stock prices or fluctuations with large daily rises and falls. In the bottom area, the trading volume of a stock cannot be too small, especially the amplitude cannot be too small. Stocks with small trading volume and small amplitude are inelastic and may have little potential in the future market. A stock often appears at the top of the list of gains and losses. Stocks that dare to rise and fall are good stocks (assuming that the banker has never made money). Such stocks may become big "big stocks" in the future. "Dark Horse" deserves special attention. When it comes to rising prices, the most important thing is to distinguish whether the stock price is truly rising. Based on experience, we draw the following conclusions:
(1) has never risen, and if the stock price is not positioned high, the possibility of it really rising is high.
(2) If the stock price is not far from the banker's cost, the probability of it rising is very high.
(3) The stock price is low and has undergone sufficient consolidation, and the probability of rising is greater.
(4) If there is no news and there is no obvious reason for the rise (mainly referring to good stimulus), the possibility of real rise is very high. If there is good news in the short term, it will only be a small period.
(5) If it rises due to sudden good news, the rise may not last long. If it has already risen by a huge amount, a fall will come soon.
(6) lacks a corresponding rise in trading volume and is not real enough (unless it shrinks and goes up after a huge shock, and the market makers control the market, there will not be too many such stocks in the future). A rise without momentum in
(7) is a false rise (unless it continues to have a small positive rise, and moderately increases the volume of ), the rise may be false.
(8) For stocks that have risen too fast, unless they have gone through a long period of shock consolidation, have ideal volume and price coordination, and have just entered the market maker's pull-up stage, beware of "shocks" or reversals. Someone who is very fast and "awesome" may be a dark horse in sprinting.
(9) The method of slowly rising on the market is often a bit "gimmick" and does not rise for a long time. It is boring, investors are unwilling to participate, have no confidence in holding shares, the stock price is not high, and has experienced sufficient shocks. , the one who changes hands may be a big dark horse.
(10) Once a stock that has been fully speculated and has a huge cumulative increase starts to fall, it may rise intermittently several times. Although sometimes the amplitude is not small, this is just a rebound. It is better to run quickly, and never Have no illusions.
should have a clear understanding of both ups and downs. Rise is not necessarily a good thing. A surge in volume at the top stage, a sudden surge in volume in a single day on the way down, and a surge in rebound in a balanced market or a bear market may not be a good thing. What "gospel". Therefore, the rise and fall of stock prices should be viewed dialectically. Rising prices bring risks, while falling prices bring opportunities. Although the rise is an opportunity, if the rise is unreal or the foundation for the rise is not solid, or the rise is too large or too rapid, then the rise contains risks, and along with the rise, the fall will happen sooner or later, while the opportunity for the fall is bigger. First of all, rising but not falling accumulates huge risks. The greater the rise, the greater the risk, while falling can resolve the risk. Secondly, after the decline, the foundation for the rise is solid, and the decline accumulates energy for the rise.Finally, the stock market is a place for profit-seeking. The greater the decline, the greater the opportunity (assuming it is not a bear market). When chasing new profits to maximize profits, bankers will enter the market, and the opportunity to make money will come.
