Today’s adjustment in the semiconductor sector is very deep, beyond my imagination and beyond the imagination of most people. Due to the two days of fermentation over the weekend, many unsteady investors, investors with rich periodic profits, , bookmakers, , etc. are all selling on a large scale, and the large-scale selling is actually mainly due to the extreme panic after two days of psychological fermentation.
1. One bad news and one good news over the weekend, two extremes on the market
Two news sides continued to ferment over the weekend. One was Fa Ge’s interview with the pig raising company, which was passed down by the media with ulterior motives. The price of pork has soared, and it can no longer be suppressed. , only policy solutions can be used to suppress the excessive rise in pork prices; the other is that the news of large-scale MCU order cuts in Europe and the United States is getting more and more negative, and it is even rumored that domestic chip companies will also have large-scale bad order cuts. In fact, it was two days of psychological effects that led to the two extremes of the market:
1. Various media continued to reinforce the soaring pork prices, which made investors strengthen their bullish expectations for two days, resulting in a large amount of funds entering the market after the opening of and on Monday. , pushing up the daily limit of pig stocks, the intensity is very huge;
2, various media continue to strengthen the news that MCU has been canceled, filling the market with a huge negative scenario, and investors transmit the influence to each other, which leads to a stronger psychological hint of this huge negative situation, so it plummeted immediately after the market opened today.
In fact, the two extremes are very obvious on the market today. A large number of investors sold chip stocks, bought bottom pig stocks, and funds were transferred from chips to pig stocks. The market has experienced an extremely scary situation.
2. Extreme market conditions are unsustainable
It has to be said that the ability of the media to influence investors' emotions is getting stronger and stronger. The media transmits some information to each other, which directly strengthens the psychological expectations of investment. However, some things are not facts, no matter how they are rumored, they will eventually falsified , but after the falsification, these media were not affected in any way, which is indeed sad.
1. There is currently no basis for a sharp rise in pork prices.
The current many factors actually indicate that there is no basis for continued price increases of pork:
A. The stock of sows is huge, which leads to the fact that the output of live pigs is also very huge;
B , the reason why the price of pork has jumped is that there are funds deliberately suppressing the market. Similar to the fried soybeans and garlic before, now these funds are just speculating on pork. By deliberately hoarding and signing contracts not to be sold, the supply of pork in the market is artificially caused by demand. situation;
C, the central reserve of meat is huge, and the rise in pork prices has a huge impact on CPI. In the absence of swine fever, there are 100 plans to suppress the surge in pork prices.
2. Domestic substitution of chips, strengthening the chip market
Many people will extend the situation of cutting orders of foreign chips to the domestic market, and actually think that there will be a surplus of domestic chips. This is actually completely copying the foreign situation in an attempt to manipulate the domestic market. This is totally the opposite. The situation at home and abroad is different.
A. The policy requires that the chip self-sufficiency rate in 2025 should reach 70%
. In 2021, the domestic chip self-sufficiency rate is only 16.73%, which is very different from the current 70% in 2025, so the potential is very unlimited. Therefore, in order to improve the self-sufficiency rate of domestic chips, domestic chips have been adopted on a large scale this year. After all, domestic chips can fully cover the production of non-precision chips. Therefore, in addition to the weakening of foreign demand for MCU and other large-scale order cuts in foreign countries this year, there are also A very big reason is that our country has reduced the import of foreign chips.
B, Domestic large-scale reduction of chip imports:
In the first four months of 2022, the scope of my country's imported chips was 186 billion, a decrease of 11.4% compared with the same period; while the scale of imported chips reached 210 billion compared with the same period chip, which means that we have reduced the import of 24 billion chips in 4 months, so it is natural for TSMC and others to cut orders. The reduced chips are transferred to domestic chips, and foreign orders will naturally be cut. Domestic chips are in short supply.
3. The domestic chip replacement process is in an explosive period this year.
The large-scale development of new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is an opportunity to promote the localization of chips. Therefore, large-scale development in these two directions will directly benefit the sales of domestic chips. and research and development, so this year’s domestic chip production is definitely a good period, so don’t miss this year’s performance explosion period. Foreign chips are caused by reduced foreign demand, but domestic policies have created demand, and there will inevitably be chip company performance outbreak, so we give priority to investing in automotive chip companies and photovoltaic chip companies, the two sectors that are most likely to produce results.
