1. Short-term trend analysis: the top divergence structure of the small cycle, short-term precautions for falling back again. We mentioned yesterday that 3330 and the vicinity of the 10-day moving average have a strong supporting effect on the index, so the probability of continu

1. Short-term trend analysis: The top of small cycle deviates from the structure of , and short-term prevention falls again

We mentioned yesterday that 3330 and the vicinity of the 10-day moving average have a strong supporting effect on the index, so the probability of continuous short-term selling and falling is not high. Pay attention to hitting bottom on Friday and rebounding, but today the market opened lower and moved higher, rising strongly. During the session, the Shanghai Stock Index hit a new high since this round of rise;

Looking ahead to the market outlook, some indexes have formed at the 30- and 60-minute levels. MACD top divergence structure, while Shanghai Composite Index is still facing the dual pressure of the annual line and holding up chips. Under this situation, if the weight in tomorrow's early trading cannot quickly increase the volume and drive the index to break through the annual line pressure level, we must prevent the index from falling back again in the short term ( The probability of a pullback is relatively high, but there is a small probability that securities companies, insurance companies, etc. will rise sharply, driving the index to break through the key pressure level);

2. Mid-term trend analysis: In the late stage of the wave 5 rise, we must guard against a larger wave of adjustments in the mid-term

From a mid-term perspective Look, we are currently in the process of rising in 5 waves. If the next 5 waves rise, the market will completely rise into a complete five-wave rise. In the later stage, we must guard against the arrival of larger-level adjustments. We will give reminders when the time comes. The probability is around the beginning of July, as shown in the figure below:

3. Long-term trend analysis: The market is in the late stage of the first wave of big B rise. After a wave of mid-term adjustments in the future, the long-term trend will be upward

The market is now in the big B wave of rise, the first wave. In the late stage of the wave rise, the first wave of rise in the later period is over. There is a high probability that there will be a wave of mid-term adjustments, and then it will continue to rise in the long term.

Summary of opinions: small cycle top divergence + important moving average pressure + holding chip pressure. If the weight cannot rise quickly in early trading on Friday , to prevent another short-term decline, we believe that the probability of a decline is relatively high. Of course, the small probability is that the weight of securities companies, insurance, real estate, etc. will increase significantly, driving the index to break through the key pressure level in the mid-term, and this round of rise will end (the five-wave rise ends), To To guard against a wave of large-level adjustments, we must gradually prevent risks around the beginning of July;

In the long run, large-level adjustments will end in the future and will continue to rise in the long term.

4. Trading response strategy

Short-term investors who participated in the market on Thursday will look for opportunities to sell high and reduce their positions again on Friday; at the same time, in terms of the overall response strategy, considering that the current time has reached the end of June, and the market structure has already After the five-wave rise, we must gradually prevent the end of the five-wave rise before mid-July, especially in early July. Therefore, the overall strategy in early July is to reduce the position in batches on rallies.

Disclaimer: Personal opinion, for reference only