Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019.

2024/05/0220:56:37 finance 1268

(Report Producer/Author: Northeast Securities, Li Hui, Zhao Hanzhen)

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews. Industry trends: The short-term recovery of travel depends on the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies, and the medium and long-term tourism consumption shows a trend of quality transformation

1.1. The new stage of epidemic prevention and control is superimposed on policy support. Strengthening tourism recovery expectations

1.1.1. Short-term peripheral travel and self-driving travel have become tourism characteristics under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control.

Domestic tourism consumption continues to be disturbed by repeated local epidemics, and single-season tourism data is highly sensitive to the number of cases and prevention and control policies. According to Ministry of Culture and Tourism data, domestic tourist arrivals in 2020 were 2.879 billion/-52.1%, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.23 trillion yuan/-61.1%; in 2021, domestic tourist arrivals were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, returning to the same period in 2019. 54.0%, domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. Looking at the quarterly basis, the more new confirmed cases in the local area, the lower the recovery level of tourist arrivals. After the epidemic, 2020Q4 had the least new confirmed cases, and the recovery level of tourist arrivals reached 67%. Since 2021Q3, the local epidemic has spread in multiple places, and quarantine prevention and control policies have been adopted in many places. The tourism market has been hit hard by the tightening of restrictions, and the recovery rate of tourist arrivals and tourism income continues to decline. In 2022Q1, the total number of domestic tourism visits was 830 million/-19.0%, and domestic tourism revenue was 0.77 trillion yuan/+4.0%. As there were new cases in many places across the country in mid-to-late March, the recovery of tourist arrivals was still at a low level, and tourism consumption showed a slight increase.

The recovery rate of holiday tourism data is better than the overall data for the whole year. The overall willingness of residents to travel has been suppressed, and there is huge room for rebound. Holiday tourism data reflects a higher willingness to travel. The number of tourist arrivals during the May Day holiday in 2021 has exceeded that of the same period in 2019. Tourism demand can rebound quickly against the background of the weak impact of the local epidemic. In 2022Q2, due to the outbreak of the epidemic in key cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, the tourism market bottomed out, and the Dragon Boat Festival tourism travel data has shown an improving trend. Recently, with the stable and positive trend of epidemic control in various places, Huangshan Scenic Area has ushered in a strong recovery. From June 9 to 26, it received a total of 68,000 tourists/+3.38%; of which the number of tourists received in the most recent week increased year-on-year. 11%; on June 26, it received nearly 10,000 tourists in a single day, setting a new high since early March (excluding the " Huangshan -person free tour of Huangshan" during the May Day holiday). It is expected that the scenic spot operation and tourism market conditions will continue to improve in the third quarter, and a rebound may occur in the second half of 2022.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

2022 In the first half of the year, against the backdrop of normalized epidemic prevention and control, peripheral travel and self-driving travel remained the mainstream of the holiday tourism market. In terms of distance, data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism during the 2022 Dragon Boat Festival shows that during the 2022 Dragon Boat Festival, the proportions of intra-provincial travel and inter-provincial travel were 92.4% and 7.6% respectively. Compared with the 2021 National Day and the 2022 Spring Festival, the proportion of short-distance travel has further increased. ; China Tourism Academy stated that the distance traveled by tourists has been significantly reduced since the epidemic. In 2022, 49% of Dragon Boat Festival tourists will not travel more than 100 kilometers, and 87.4% will not travel more than 300 kilometers; the average travel radius is 107.9 kilometers, compared with The May Day holiday in 2022 will increase by 8%, but still remain within the short travel distance range. In terms of travel mode, more than half of tourists will choose to travel by self-driving during the Dragon Boat Festival in 2022, accounting for 51.2%. Not long after the latest policy adjustments to the circuit breaker for inter-provincial travel were promulgated, the epidemic prevention policies of various places during this year’s Dragon Boat Festival have not yet been relaxed. 48-hour nucleic acid testing, advance reporting, and two-day testing are still the basic requirements for many regions to receive people from across provinces. Inter-provincial tourists are still restricted from traveling after arriving at their destinations, and are unable to obtain a better tourism experience. The increase in consumers' willingness to travel across provinces is very low, but the Dragon Boat Festival holiday may become a turning point for the tourism economy to stop falling and rebound this year, laying a stable and positive market foundation for the recovery of the tourism economy after the epidemic.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

1.1.2. After the epidemic, inter-provincial travel continues to be under pressure, and the summer may usher in opportunities for recovery.

After the epidemic, the inter-provincial group travel business has basically stagnated due to the impact of policies, and the tourism industry continues to be under pressure. Inter-provincial travel products are the main business of most travel agencies. The dynamic adjustment policy for inter-provincial group travel has a significant impact on travel agency operations and puts pressure on the operation of long-term tourist attractions that rely heavily on inter-provincial group travel.Although the circuit breaker policy for inter-provincial group travel promulgated on August 5, 2021 stopped the “one size fits all” model for inter-provincial travel business across the country, allowing each province to make its own decisions based on the epidemic situation. However, once a "medium- and high-risk area" appears in a province, the province's inter-provincial group travel business will automatically trigger the "circuit breaker mechanism" and stop. From 2021 to now, inter-provincial group travel notices issued by various provinces have repeatedly hovered between "suspension" and "resumption" more than a hundred times. Too frequent adjustments have still caused significant interference to the recovery of inter-provincial travel, causing tourism companies to be exhausted. Respond to the resumption of inter-provincial travel business.

The phased adjustment of the inter-provincial tourism circuit breaker policy has ignited the demand for travel, and the long-suppressed demand for long-term travel may have an opportunity to recover during the summer. On May 31, 2022, the inter-provincial tourism circuit breaker policy ushered in new adjustments, further loosening restrictions, and the circuit breaker was precised from "province" to "county". Various regions have successively announced the resumption of travel agencies and online travel companies to operate inter-provincial team travel and "air tickets + hotel" business. The public's long-suppressed travel demand may be fully released during the peak summer booking period, and tourism companies will usher in recovery opportunities. For three consecutive days starting from June 18, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Hubei have fully resumed inter-provincial group travel business. According to Ctrip data, as of June 21, the number of summer inter-provincial group tour bookings in the past week increased by 291% week-on-week; the number of summer inter-provincial hotel bookings increased by 151% week-on-week. The opening of inter-provincial group tours has brought about a significant recovery in passenger flow to local scenic spots. Taking Qinghai Province, which announced the resumption of inter-provincial travel on June 18, as an example, the summer hotel booking volume in Qinghai Province on Ctrip's platform has increased by 174% week-on-week in the past week; the number of tickets to scenic spots has increased by 100% from the previous week; and the number of summer air tickets has increased by 100% from the previous week. It grew 252% last week. At present, product sales in Beijing and Shanghai have not fully recovered due to the epidemic, and the sales of "air tickets + hotels" products are expected to usher in a stronger rebound as the impact of the epidemic weakens.

1.1.3. The new stage of epidemic prevention and control releases good signals, and policies support the recovery of tourism from both supply and demand sides.

The national epidemic prevention and control situation has ushered in a stage of "scientific and precise, dynamic clearing ", and the new version of the epidemic prevention and control plan has been in the epidemic situation Monitoring, isolation control and other aspects have been adjusted based on the new characteristics of Omicron, and the overall relaxation has created conditions for the tourism industry to revitalize. In view of the many differences in the characteristics of this year's epidemic compared with last year, the National Health Commission announced the "New Coronavirus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (Trial Ninth Edition)" on March 15, 2022; on June 28, 2022, further analysis Adjustments have been made to epidemic prevention and control measures. The State Council issued the "Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Prevention and Control Plan (Ninth Edition)". The plan fully implements the general strategy of "preventing external imports and preventing domestic rebound" and the general policy of "dynamic clearing". Based on the characteristics of the Omicron variant, the epidemic monitoring, isolation management of risk personnel, and standards for delineating medium- and high-risk areas have been adjusted according to the situation. In addition, the plan specifically points out in strengthening supervision and inspection that in order to avoid excessive prevention and control and layer upon layer, the inspection and supervision system should be improved to ensure the standardized implementation of epidemic prevention and treatment measures. The ninth version of the plan optimizes the prevention and control work, making the prevention and control work more scientific and precise.

China has achieved good results in terms of vaccines, nucleic acid testing and specific drugs. Through multiple rounds of epidemic prevention and control work, various regions have gradually accumulated effective prevention and control experience, and have the ability to quickly respond to local outbreaks and quickly control the spread of the epidemic. , we are optimistic about the flexibility of the tourism market after the impact of the epidemic weakens.

1) The rapid increase in the vaccination rate of the domestic new crown vaccine has established an immune barrier and laid the foundation for the steady recovery of the tourism market. As of May 31, 2022, China had vaccinated 234.13 doses of vaccine per 100 people, with an average of at least two shots per person, and the proportion of fully vaccinated people in China ranks among the highest in the world. The progress of vaccination work will help prevent and control the epidemic in the later stage and lay the foundation for restoring residents' freedom to travel.

2) At the epidemic monitoring level, nucleic acid testing capabilities in various parts of the country have been significantly improved, preparing for precise control and delineation of risk areas. After more than two years of accumulation of experience in epidemic prevention and control, my country's nucleic acid testing capabilities have been significantly improved.As of May 2022, there are 13,000 medical and health institutions across the country that can carry out nucleic acid testing, and there are 153,000 professional and technical personnel engaged in nucleic acid testing technology. The daily nucleic acid detection capability of reaches 57 million tubes per day in a single tube. Secondly, with the accumulation of epidemic prevention experience and the continuous optimization of policies, the time for the epidemic to be fully controlled has been significantly shortened.

3) In terms of post-epidemic treatment, the National Medical Insurance Administration issued the "Notice on Effectively Providing Medical Security for the Prevention and Control of the Current Epidemic" on March 21, promptly adjusting the COVID-19 oral specific drug Paxlovid to be included in the scope of medical insurance payment for the treatment of COVID-19. Phase III clinical data shows that Paxlovid reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%, and reduces the viral load by 10 times on the fifth day of treatment. It is currently the most effective small molecule oral COVID-19 drug. This small molecule oral COVID-19 drug can be taken orally at home in the first few days after symptoms of infection appear, helping to reduce disease severity, hospitalization rates, mortality, and the possibility of exposure to infection. The introduction of oral specific drugs has added new treatment methods for the treatment and recovery of COVID-19 patients, reducing medical pressure. Coupled with dynamic clearing and vaccine immunization, it will undoubtedly play a very positive role in the control of the epidemic.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

Alleviating the plight of the tourism industry is an important guarantee for driving the national economy. The comprehensive contribution of tourism to the national economy continues to increase, and the development of tourism promotes economic and social development. Due to the characteristics of spatial mobility and people gathering in the tourism industry, it has been severely impacted by the highly contagious and mutable COVID-19 epidemic, and the scale of the tourism economy has been nearly cut in half. In order to promote the recovery of tourism consumption in the context of the epidemic, national policies start from both supply and demand ends to stimulate the inherent vitality of the tourism industry market.

From the perspective of tourism demand, governments in many places have promoted local tourism consumption through policies such as reducing or exempting tickets and issuing travel consumption vouchers. Ticket exemptions are a temporary countermeasure to break the market downturn caused by the epidemic, increase passenger flow, guide tourists to make secondary purchases, and drive the performance of scenic spots to recover. Many tourist attractions have introduced preferential measures such as free tickets, including Huashan in Shaanxi, Lushan in Jiangxi, Huangguoshu Waterfall in Guizhou and many other well-known 5A scenic spots. Among them, Huashan Scenic Area is the first time in 20 years that you can enter the mountains without tickets; Shandong The province issued a notice to implement a price reduction of no less than 50% on the first-pass ticket prices of 137 state-owned A-level tourist attractions in the province from June 1 to September 30, 2022. The measure of issuing consumer vouchers continues to play a role in the performance recovery of scenic spots. According to disclosures from the Jinan Municipal Culture and Tourism Bureau, as of June 4, Jinan City has issued a total of 960,000 yuan in cultural tourism consumption coupons to benefit the people, 58,700 of which have been received, 32,000 of which have been used, and the amount of coupons used is 577,600 yuan. , driving cultural tourism industry consumption of 2.2533 million yuan, with a direct driving effect of 3.90 times; The Chengdu Municipal People's Government will issue 660,000 consumer coupons every Friday from May 20, and is expected to issue 4 rounds, directly stimulating the cultural and entertainment consumption of Chengdu citizens Consumption demand: During the Dragon Boat Festival, Chengdu's A-level scenic spots received 2.0833 million tourists and achieved ticket revenue of 15.6975 million yuan, an increase of 60.7% and 102.7% respectively compared with the Qingming Festival holiday.

On the supply side, the government has actively introduced support policies to help tourism companies tide over difficulties. On February 18, 2022, 14 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Several Policies on Promoting the Restoration and Development of Difficult Industries in the Service Sector", which listed relief support measures for tourism and other industries, involving financial support, tax reductions and fee reductions , stabilizing employment and other aspects to reduce the pressure on tourism companies’ cash flow and enhance their confidence in the recovery of the tourism market. The government has also promulgated policies to guide the upgrading of supply-side tourism products and expand the field of tourism consumption. On December 22, 2021, the State Council issued and implemented the "14th Five-Year Plan for Tourism Development", proposing the deep integration of culture and tourism. The plan proposes to promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional commercial complexes into cultural, sports, business and travel complexes, create new cultural and tourism consumption clusters, promote the construction of national cultural and tourism consumption pilot cities and demonstration cities; support museums, cultural centers, libraries, art galleries, intangible cultural heritage Cultural venues such as libraries and bookstores will enhance their tourism and leisure functions.The introduction of the policy has guided scenic spots to adapt to the diversified and personalized consumption needs of mass tourism, innovate tourism consumption scenarios, and actively cultivate new tourism consumption models. The government promotes the comprehensive recovery of tourism from both supply and demand ends, thereby stabilizing the market economy and social development.

1.2. Tourism consumption has undergone structural transformation, and the market space for leisure and vacation travel is vast.

1.2.1. Sightseeing tourism is transitioning to leisure and vacation tourism, and high-quality and diversified demands have emerged.

my country's tourism consumption is in the stage of upgrading and transformation. Tourists no longer only satisfy For single-spot sightseeing tours, leisure vacation tours have gradually replaced traditional sightseeing tours and become the mainstream. The epidemic has changed the public's travel habits in the short term, and market demand and competitive environment have changed over time, putting forward new requirements for the transformation and upgrading of scenic spots. Since 2010, leisure travel has gradually overtaken sightseeing and become the main travel purpose of urban residents, shifting from sightseeing to in-depth experience. Leisure and vacation tourism is based on high-quality tourism facilities and high-quality services and special tourism projects to meet the leisure and vacation needs of tourists. Customized, high-end and quality tourism products are highly favored. As the proportion of high-income groups among residents increases, the demand for tourism product quality is gradually increasing. Some mid-to-high-end customer groups come from the conversion of outbound tourists, have higher marginal consumption tendencies and personalized consumption needs, and are more inclined to reflect Personalized travel methods and services to highlight your high-quality lifestyle. This benefits leisure resorts and cultural scenic spots that operate multiple types of composite products. The single product experience and service level of traditional sightseeing tours can no longer meet the needs of this type of consumer group. In line with the transformation trend, tourist attractions not only develop traditional natural scenery, but also tap into complex values ​​such as cultural experiences, and carry out multi-business operations such as IP development and catering and accommodation. In the long term, the demand for leisure vacation travel will continue to expand.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

Against the background of the epidemic, scenic spots have responded to the upgrading of tourist demand, stepped up efforts to optimize their own supply, and developed and launched leisure and vacation products, providing wider space for subsequent performance increases. On the one hand, scenic spots deepen the integration of culture and tourism, deeply explore local cultural connotations, incorporate cultural relics and cultural resources into tourist routes, integrate into tourist attractions, and actively spread the excellent traditional Chinese culture. On the other hand, the scenic spot strengthens technological innovation to improve services, and uses the Internet, VR and other equipment and technology platforms to realize real scene interpretation, virtual scene reproduction and other experience forms to bring tourists an immersive experience and increase tourist stickiness. Scenic spots continue to make efforts to enrich and optimize the supply of tourism products, and the overall industry has entered a new stage of development. Taking Huangshan tourism as an example, we seek breakthroughs in addition to natural sightseeing and set up a series of supporting service facilities such as hotels, catering, entertainment, and leisure activities; in 2020, we will add Anhui cuisine business as an emerging business, relying on Huangshan tourism resources to create a unique A distinctive Huizhou culture-themed catering brand; in 2021, it will add the "Shilin Cliff House" hotel project around creating a high-end mountain luxury positioning, develop differentiated hotel products, and introduce luxury yachts, parasailing boats and other water entertainment facilities and equipment to provide overall services Meet tourists' needs for sightseeing, leisure, vacation, business activities and other aspects.

1.2.2. High customer orders and high repurchase attributes improve the performance of leisure scenic spots.

Sightseeing tours mainly focusing on natural scenic spots are limited in increasing the unit price of tickets, so post-epidemic recovery mainly relies on passenger flow. The income of traditional natural scenic spots mainly comes from tickets, transportation (sightseeing cars, ropeways, etc.) and hotels and restaurants. Due to the price limit of tickets, it is difficult to bring room for improvement to the income of the scenic spots. The recovery of passenger flow plays a decisive role. Due to reasonable The carrying capacity is limited and the passenger flow ceiling is relatively low. Traditional natural scenic spots are mainly for sightseeing, with the content of viewing local scenic spots and appreciating the local customs and customs. Tourists stay in the scenic spots for a short time. In the context of intensifying competition in the tourism market, problems such as a thousand scenes and a single tourism project have become prominent. The return rate of tourists is not high. The recovery of traditional natural scenic spots mainly depends on the increase in passenger flow.

Leisure and vacation tourist attractions have the attributes of high customer unit price and high repurchase rate, and will have stronger performance flexibility and growth after the epidemic.Under the trend of structural transformation of tourism consumption, leisure resorts benefit from new growth paths brought by composite tourism products. In addition to ordinary sightseeing tours, special accommodation and special catering projects are also an important part of the income of leisure resorts. Leisure resorts target high-quality customer groups, and secondary consumption is showing an upward trend. Tourists pay attention to the quality of their vacation and often stay in scenic spots for a long time. Leisure and vacation scenic spots meet the various needs of tourists and increase tourist loyalty and repurchase rates. The performance recovery of leisure scenic spots not only comes from the contribution of the increase in passenger flow, but also from the increase in unit price of multiple businesses after upgrading and transforming in the direction of leisure and vacation. Leisure and vacation scenic spots with diversified leisure products have more elastic performance than tourist attractions and have room for growth. bigger. (Report source: Future Think Tank)

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

1.2.3. Market segments meet the diverse needs of tourists, and parent-child travel develops rapidly

In the process of tourism recovery, changes in demand have brought new development opportunities to the tourism segmented market. As the proportion of individual tourists increases, the demand for customized tourism is huge, and specialization and refined division of labor will become more obvious. The scenic spot provides personalized services for target customer groups in each market segment, launches customized routes, and creates composite products. In leisure and vacation travel, multiple market segments are embracing development opportunities, including parent-child travel, study tours, health and wellness tourism, rural tourism, etc., which can meet tourists' diverse market needs for sightseeing, leisure, vacation, and recuperation.

Parent-child tours and study tours are gradually favored by parents born in the 1980s and 1990s. On the one hand, the number of consumer groups for parent-child travel and study tours has increased. Data from the seventh national census show that my country’s population aged 0-14 accounts for 17.95%, an increase of 1.35% from ten years ago. At present, my country’s family structure is dominated by small families, and young parents are more interested in parent-child travel. , parents born in the 1980s and 1990s have become a consumer group in the tourism market, becoming the backbone of parent-child travel and study tours. The 2021 Mafengwo summer travel data shows that family and parent-child travel accounted for 29%, second only to the 32% of travel by friends and classmates. On the other hand, consumer demand for parent-child travel and study tours is growing. The new generation of parents pays more attention to the improvement of their children's comprehensive quality and ability. Study tours can broaden their children's horizons and increase their knowledge, becoming a new content and new method of quality education. Study tours usher in development opportunities under the " double reduction " policy. According to Mafengwo data, among the "parent-child family" surrounding tourist attractions in 2021, leisure and entertainment attractions are significantly more popular than other tourist groups. In the leisure vacation tourism market, parent-child tourist groups are an important part of it. According to Ctrip data, during this year’s Children’s Day holiday, searches for domestic parent-child travel products increased by more than 30% in the past week compared with the previous week, and orders for parent-child vacation products from May 28 to June 1 increased by 700% compared with the same period last week. , the search volume for parent-child hotels, parent-child camping, and parent-child study camps has increased more than three times; Emeishan City has joined forces with 20 travel agencies to launch a 1- to 7-day study tour package. From January to July 2021, Emeishan City received 260,000 study tourists, achieving Income of more than 18 million yuan.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

As the aging population intensifies, health and wellness tourism will unleash greater development potential. Data from the Seventh National Census show that the total number of elderly people aged 60 and above in mainland my country in 2021 is 267 million, accounting for 18.9% of the total population. United Nations data predicts that in 2050, China's elderly population will exceed 480 million, accounting for 36.5% of the total population. The health and wellness tourism market has huge potential for future development. While my country's aging process is accelerating, the elderly group's demand for a better life is also becoming stronger. The epidemic has profoundly affected people's understanding of healthy living, leisure and health, and the value of health and wellness tourism has gradually attracted attention. In December 2021, the State Council issued the "National Aging Care Development and Elderly Care Service System Plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan"". The plan proposes to promote the integrated development of elderly care and tourism, guide various tourist attractions and resorts to strengthen aging-friendly construction and transformation, and build Health and wellness tourism base.Products and services featuring health and wellness such as traditional Chinese medicine health tourism, hot spring tourism, forest ecological tourism, health and sports tourism, etc. will meet the needs of the elderly, and the industry of health and wellness tourism will become more abundant. Among the health tourism products in the current market, subdivided themes have been formed such as health + ecology, health + folk customs, health + culture, etc. Taking Sanya, a popular tourist destination, as an example, the "Sanya Haitang Bay Evergrande Health Valley Health Care Base Residence and Leisure Travel" series of products has been on the best-selling list of Tuniu all year round. It is positioned as a health care base of high-quality health care service apartments. The surrounding environment is surrounded by the sea and rivers, and is close to tourist areas, shopping malls, and hospitals. In recent years, it has become the first choice for residents in Sanya.

Favorable policies have brightened the market prospects, and the rural tourism market continues to heat up. On February 11, 2022, the State Council issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Promoting Agricultural and Rural Modernization" and proposed to build a number of key counties for leisure agriculture based on the resource advantages of pastoral scenery, green waters and mountains, village buildings, local culture, and folk customs. , leisure agriculture boutique parks and key rural tourism villages and towns. Relying on policy guidance, various regions actively develop the rural tourism market. The number of rural tourism trips is also showing a rapid increase. Data from the China Tourism Academy shows that in 2021, the number of rural outings in Guangdong and Henan exceeded 70 million. The growth in demand for leisure and vacation travel has also promoted the development of rural leisure tourism projects. Rural tourism is no longer limited to “farmhouse entertainment”. Traditional culture, local customs, high-quality homestays, etc. have become new choices for rural consumption. Take Gaochun Gaogang Village, a new rural tourist spot in Nanjing, as an example. The local area has turned idle houses into cultural and tourism experience spaces such as schools, children's dream fields, rice cake shops, tofu shops, cafes, and B&Bs to provide surrounding tourists in East China. Brand new rural leisure vacation product.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

. Investment analysis: Leisure scenic spots operating complex products have resumed their leadership, and their growth potential has yet to be released

2.1. Songcheng Performing Arts

2.1.1. Intermittent closures of many scenic spots have put pressure on short-term performance, but performance will be highly resilient after full reopening

Epidemic Prevention and control has placed great restrictions on the performing arts, and gathering performances have been repeatedly closed due to the impact of the policy. The audience for tourism performances is mainly cross-provincial tourists, who are highly dependent on travel agency products. After the outbreak, Songcheng's scenic spots experienced repeated closures, which caused a large degree of disruption to performance recovery. In 2020H2 and 2021Q2, as the impact of the epidemic weakened, tourism recovery was promoted, the number of park openings increased, and the number of Eternal Love shows generally showed an upward trend, showing a steady recovery trend. However, from 2021Q4 to 2022Q1, due to the repeated local epidemics in many places, which led to strict prevention and control policies in various provinces and cities, most scenic spots in Songcheng were closed, and the number of Eternal Love events was generally at a low level. The Songcheng project operates performing arts projects that are more affected by epidemic control policies than outdoor natural scenic spots. The full opening of Songcheng scenic spots still needs to wait for the effective control of the epidemic and the relaxation of prevention and control policies. According to the announcement on the official website, in addition to the Tanhe, Mingyue and Huangdi scenic spots that are currently open, Hangzhou, Sanya, Lijiang, Jiuzhai, Guilin are expected to open on July 2 to resume the Eternal Love Performance. If major scenic spots in Songcheng The smooth reopening of scenic spots will bring about a greater recovery in revenue. Against the backdrop of stable control of the epidemic in Beijing and Shanghai, the performance improvement trend in the third quarter has emerged.

Before the epidemic, the company had strong profitability and stable performance growth. After the epidemic, intermittent closures affected the pace of short-term recovery. After the epidemic, we will wait for the gradual opening of scenic spots to usher in performance recovery. Revenue: After the outbreak of the epidemic, all its scenic spots suspended operations from January 24, 2020, and fully resumed operations on June 12, 2020. Revenue began to rise significantly in 2020Q3, 2020Q4 revenue has recovered to 70% of the same period in 2019, and 2021Q1 revenue has recovered to 36% of the same period in 2019, mainly due to the recurrence of epidemics and the policy of celebrating the New Year in situ. In 2021Q2, there was no widespread domestic epidemic, and revenue continued to rise, recovering to 72% of the same period in 2019. In 2022Q1, many of its scenic spots were closed, and revenue only recovered to 10.34% of the same period in 2019.Gross profit margin: 2020/2021/2022Q1 gross profit margin is 60.93%/51.08%/42.22% respectively. The continued decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the intermittent closure of many scenic spots affected by the epidemic; expense rate: year-by-year, 2020/2021 The management expense rate is 36.07%/25.10% respectively, and the management expense rate in 2022Q1 is 114.20%/+109.10 pct compared with 2019. This is mainly due to the fact that the company's operating costs are included in management expenses during the closure period of each scenic spot. Profit side: Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2020 was -1.752 billion yuan, mainly due to the company's recognition of long-term equity investment losses and impairment provisions for Hanafang Technology totaling approximately 1.861 billion yuan, which had a greater drag on performance. If the financial data of the digital entertainment platform and the increase or decrease in the long-term equity investment held by Hanafang Technology are not taken into account, the net profit attributable to the parent company for the whole year of 2020 will be 114 million yuan. Performance recovery in 2021H1 was relatively good, with net profit attributable to parent companies reaching 132 million yuan/246 million yuan in 2021Q1/2021Q2 respectively, recovering to 35.76%/59.28% of the same period in 2019. Affected by the epidemic in 2022Q1, the net loss attributable to the parent company was 39 million yuan.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

The company announced the transfer of equity in the Zhuhai & Australia project. In 2022, the company will go into battle lightly and deal with market risks. Previously, the company announced that it planned to transfer all equity interests in Zhuhai and Australia projects to the controlling shareholder Songcheng Group . If the project operation meets expectations in the future, Songcheng Group promises to give priority to transferring the project to Songcheng Performing Arts. The subsequent development and construction of the Zhuhai project will be continued by Songcheng Group. After the opening, the operation and management will be entrusted to Songcheng Performing Arts. Songcheng Group will pay Songcheng Performing Arts entrusted management and brand licensing fees, which are 80 million/100 million/respectively for the first three years. 120 million. In a market environment where the epidemic has brought many uncertainties, the company is expected to go into business with ease after transferring the equity of the Zhuhai project, ushering in improvements in cash flow and profits.

2.1.2. Existing projects have broken through bottlenecks, and incremental projects have accelerated their growth.

Songcheng Performing Arts, as the leading performing arts company in China, has suffered short-term performance pressure due to the impact of campus closures, but it still has high growth potential. The company's own replication capabilities have been verified under the model of theme park + performing arts and the operation of the entire industry chain. Its historical projects have high gross profit, high net profit, high return on investment, and its operating model is high-quality. Songcheng’s eight -heavy asset projects are currently at different stages of development. After the epidemic is restored, the existing projects are expected to continue to release performance, and the ramp-up of incremental projects is expected to accelerate.

1) Hangzhou headquarters: Continuous expansion and transformation, homemade + outsourced repertoire to enrich performance content. Songcheng Eternal Love, Hangzhou Paradise , Rotten Apple Paradise and Langlanglangshui Park have built strong competitive advantages and market positions over the years. The park's scenic spots have not diminished for many years since its opening. Before the epidemic, Hangzhou Songcheng's gross profit margin continued to remain at 65%. The above has contributed more than 40% to the revenue of the live entertainment segment, and continues to be the project with the most daily performances and the largest passenger flow. Expansion and transformation: The company continues to promote the internal expansion and upgrading of scenic spots, and launched Theater 3/4 during the epidemic. Including the renovated Lijiang Love Opera House, there are 5 theaters with 3,000+ seats in the scenic area. Together with other small theaters/outdoor performance areas, the number of seats in the scenic area reaches 20,000. At the same time, we actively respond to the risks of epidemic control and launch the outdoor version of Songcheng. Eternal love. Rich content: In addition to the continuation of the ace show "Eternal Love in Songcheng", the differentiated positioning of the "Love is Here" series has been launched, including indoor small and medium-sized dramas "WA! Dinosaur" and "Katyusha", and walking performances "Captain Cook" "Shangganling", outdoor series "Yanqing Fighting", "铡美典" and other self-made content; and the introduction of specially invited dramas produced by happy twist, Tianjin People's Art and other groups to upgrade the content of Hangzhou Songcheng.

2) A round of off-site replication: existing projects continue to contribute to performance, and the construction of "Theater 2" breaks the bottleneck of growth. As the first round of successful off-site replication projects, the Sanya project and the Lijiang project have entered the project maturity stage before the epidemic and contributed stable performance. Before the epidemic, their revenue accounted for 15%/13% respectively, and their net profit contribution accounted for 16%/ 15%, it has still become an important source of profit despite the pressure of the epidemic, and it is expected to continue to contribute considerable performance after the epidemic.The Jiuzhaigou project encountered an earthquake in the later stage of its growth and was closed for two years. Later, it was closed repeatedly due to epidemic control. Such force majeure factors caused the Jiuzhaigou project to have not yet entered the performance release period. Based on Jiuzhaigou 's huge tourist customer base and With the improvement of traffic conditions in the future, there is still more room for growth compared to the two mature first-round replication projects. The company has built "No. 2 Theaters" in multiple scenic spots to break the bottleneck of passenger flow for existing projects and help release performance after the epidemic.

3) Second round of off-site replication: Sub-new projects are still in the climbing phase and are expected to achieve explosive growth after the epidemic. The gross profit margins of the Guilin project and Zhangjiajie project climbed to 70%/64% respectively due to the epidemic. The rapid growth stage was interrupted by the epidemic. It is expected that after the epidemic, they can quickly climb into a period of performance explosion. The cooperation model of the Xi'an project is another innovation after independent investment and light asset export. It has experienced repeated closures in the two years since its opening after the epidemic and has not yet achieved profitability, so it has large room for growth. The Shanghai project has opened up the imagination of urban performing arts. Since its opening, it has been limited by epidemic prevention and control policies and has not been able to fully unleash its potential. After the epidemic, it is expected to expand its performance ceiling upwards. The Foshan and Xitang projects are still under construction, and their successive openings are expected to contribute to performance growth. An important breakthrough in the second round of expansion is the launch of the light asset model. Most of the partners of light asset projects are government agencies. They use the resources of the local government and local operating capabilities to create performing arts repertoire while bringing added value to the local economy (hotel/catering). /travel/real estate). The charging model for light asset projects is a package of service fees and management fees. The package of service fees covers design/creation/arrangement and other aspects, totaling 260 million. The management fee is 20% of the annual ticket revenue after the project opens. The cooperation period is 5-10 years. The revenue contribution is considerable, and it also expands the scope and incremental space of Songcheng's site selection.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

2.1.3. Sensitivity calculation of Songcheng Performing Arts' post-epidemic recovery performance

Taking into account the great uncertainty in the tourism market after the epidemic, different scenarios were made for the recovery rate of passenger flow and unit price based on the level of 2019. Under the neutral scenario, assuming that the passenger flow in 2023 recovers to 90% to 110% of that in 2019, and the unit price per passenger recovers to 90% to 100% of that in 2019, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 911 to 1.282 billion yuan, which is the same as in 2019. Excluding the impact of six rooms, the company's main business profit is basically the same and slightly exceeded; assuming that the passenger flow in 2024 returns to 100%~120% of 2019, and the unit price per customer returns to 95%~105% of 2019, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company It is expected to reach 1.316 to 1.771 billion yuan, an increase of 26% to 70% compared with the company's main business profit in 2019, excluding the impact of six rooms. (Source of the report: Future Think Tank)

2.2. Tianmu Lake

2.2.1. Performance has been subject to repeated fluctuations due to the epidemic, and new projects have been put into operation to boost recovery.

During the epidemic, we actively created high-end products, contributed to increased performance and promoted post-epidemic recovery. Relying on the advantages of "complex products, diverse markets, and service systems", the company continues to invest in new projects. Multiple leisure vacation products give tourists more choices, increase their stay time, and maintain a high passenger flow level. The Zhuxi Valley Hotel, launched in 2020, has experienced rapid growth and successfully created the concept of a high-end wild luxury resort hotel, providing an important boost to the performance recovery of Tianmu Lake. In addition, the successful operation of tent camp projects, Yu Shishilan, Yu Tianmu Lake Hotel and other products have continuously enriched and improved Tianmu Lake's product matrix, achieving expansion and upgrading of one-stop tourist destinations. Multi-complex tourism products bring the company more market channels and faster performance recovery capabilities. Even though the epidemic has disrupted the development of the tourism industry for two consecutive years, the company can still achieve relatively leading recovery performance.

The short-term local epidemic disturbance is driven by the performance recovery caused by tourism in and around the province. After the epidemic, the company's performance is highly sensitive to the recurrence of surrounding epidemics. In the quarters where the impact of the epidemic is less, the profitability is close to the same period before the epidemic. On the revenue side: The company benefited from the resumption of tourism around the province in the quarters when the impact of the epidemic was small. Revenue performance in 2020Q4 and 2021Q2 was outstanding, recovering to 129.32%/114.01% of the same period in 2019.Gross profit margin: The gross profit margin in 2020/2021/2022Q1 was 52.60%/50.03%/1.14% respectively. The gross profit margin in 2022Q1 was -64.18 pct compared with the same period in 2019. The sharp decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the reduction in passenger flow in the scenic spot business during the epidemic and the increase in depreciation caused by the hotel business. . Expense ratio: Looking at the year by year, the sales expense ratio in 2020/2021/2022Q1 is 15.74%/12.85%/10.92% respectively, and the ability to control expenses is improved; the financial expense rate is 4.19%/-0.01%/0.59% respectively, and the financial expense rate in 2021 The decrease was mainly due to the early redemption of convertible bonds and the decrease in interest on convertible bonds; the management expense ratio was 19.18%/18.32%/33.22% respectively, and management expenses increased in 2022Q1. Profit side: The performance recovered better in the quarter when the impact of the epidemic was less. Driven by the successful operation of Zhuxi Valley, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 27 million yuan in 2020Q4, recovering to 309.35% of the same period in 2019. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021Q2 was 0.47 million yuan. billion, recovering to 122.26% of the same period in 2019. In 2021Q3, Tianmu Lake Scenic Area was disrupted by the epidemic in Jiangsu, and its performance dropped significantly. The net profit attributable to the parent company only recovered 1.86% of the same period in 2019. In 2022Q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -21 million yuan, mainly due to the continued pressure on passenger flow in scenic spots due to the epidemic and the increased costs of new projects being put into operation.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

2.2.2. Endogenous products are constantly enriched, and external growth is worth looking forward to.

Tianmu Lake base continues to expand and continuously breaks through the endogenous ceiling. In terms of hotels, hotel rooms in Tianmu Lake are currently in short supply during the peak season. Compared with the scenic area's carrying capacity, hotel reception bottlenecks are obvious. Post-epidemic hotel construction has contributed significantly to Tianmu Lake's performance, with the number of hotel rooms increasing by more than 200. , greatly increasing the reception capacity of Tianmu Lake's own hotels. The subsequent second phase of Nanshan Xiaozhai is expected to contribute more than 500 guest rooms. The long-term hotel construction and expansion will help Tianmu Lake continue to break through bottlenecks. In addition to the internal upgrading and transformation of Tianmu Lake to continuously enrich the product matrix, the Animal Kingdom project jointly built by the company and state-owned assets is benchmarked against the Orlando Animal Kingdom. Orlando's Animal Kingdom has more than 300 species and about 2,000 different types of animals. The scenic ticket price is US$109 per person and receives about 11 million tourists every year. The company has participated in the planning, design and operation management in the form of a joint venture (Tianmu Lake holds 19.98% of the shares). It is expected to be operational in 2026 and is expected to become a one-stop leisure tourism destination of comparable size to Tianmu Lake.

Tianmu Lake's "one-stop leisure tourism destination" model has low dependence on natural resources and has a high possibility of successful replication in other places. Unlike scenic spots that rely on scarce natural resources such as famous mountains and famous waters, the company's development, construction and operation of scenic spot products are based on relatively common reservoir resources (Shahe Reservoir and Daxi Reservoir). Therefore, the company's development is not limited by scarce tourism resources, the business model is highly replicable, and the core competitiveness is more reflected in the team's product creation and operation capabilities. The company's external expansion plan has been advancing steadily. In 2018, the company proposed a business development strategy: "Consolidate the base, deepen the Yangtze River Delta, focus on urban agglomerations, and develop professionally." In the future, the company will still focus on the development of the main tourism industry and consolidate the development of Liyang, Changzhou For regional products, in the future, we will carry out regional extension of the "base area" and focus on the national layout. The company plans to replicate a one-stop leisure travel and vacation destination equivalent to the size of Tianmu Lake nationwide. On the one hand, the company's expansion idea is to continuously explore tourist destinations and tourism products that have development potential. On the other hand, it is considering cooperating with local state-owned assets to develop cooperative development with the help of the good tourism foundation of state-owned assets.

2.2.3. Sensitivity calculation of Tianmu Lake post-epidemic recovery performance

Tianmu Lake hotel business continues to be in short supply during the peak season, while the scenic spot business is highly elastic due to the impact of passenger flow. The main elasticity of performance is in the two major scenic spots, Shanshui Garden and Nanshan Bamboo Sea. performance, so we mainly conduct sensitivity analysis on the performance of Tianmu Lake based on the impact of passenger flow and unit price on the scenic spot business. Under the neutral scenario, passenger flow will recover to 100% to 120% of 2019 in 2023, and the unit price of passengers will recover to 95% to 105% of 2019, corresponding to net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 of 109 to 165 million yuan; passenger flow will recover in 2024 By 120%~140% in 2019, the unit price per customer has recovered to 100%~110% of 2019, corresponding to a net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 of 156~216 million yuan.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

2.3. CYTS

2.3.1. The two towns have different degrees of recovery, with Gubei Water Town benefiting from the recovery of peripheral tourism.

As a national scenic spot, Wuzhen has been seriously affected by epidemics in many places and cross-provincial travel restrictions, and Gubei Water Town has benefited from peripheral tourism. and the recovery of high-quality customer sources is leading the way. Wuzhen is a national tourist destination. It is located at the northern end of Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province. It is located in the center of the fertile Hangjiahu Plain and has convenient transportation. Before the epidemic, the passenger flow had reached tens of millions, and the growth rate of passenger flow has fallen into a stable stage; after the epidemic, it was affected by cross-provincial Due to travel restrictions and the impact of the epidemic in key provinces and cities, the recovery of passenger flow has been delayed. Gubei Water Town has obvious location advantages and is home to a large number of high-quality tourists in the core area of ​​Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. With the official opening of the Beijing-Chengdu section of the Beijing-Harbin high-speed railway in 2021, the journey from Beijing Chaoyang to Miyun is shortened to 26 minutes, and the journey from Chengde south to Miyun is only 26 minutes. It takes 31 minutes. The external transportation conditions of Gubei Water Town are more convenient, and it has significant advantages as a one-stop destination for surrounding tourism. At the same time, Gubei Water Town has high-quality tourists from the Beijing area, and the unit price per passenger has significantly increased due to the increase in the proportion of individual travelers during the epidemic. Lift the trend.

The short-term peripheral travel market will still be hot, and the long-term inter-provincial passenger flow is relatively flexible. CYTS is a comprehensive tourism service provider with a multi-industry layout. It operates leading domestic leisure scenic spots. The scenic spot business is the core of the company's performance, contributing more than 90% of profits. The scenic spot business has strong profitability and is the main driving force for the company's performance growth. With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the tourism industry has gradually recovered. Although the epidemic has affected passenger flow in the short term, the overall recovery trend has not diminished. As a high-quality target with the resources of two core scenic spots in Wuzhen and Gubei Water Town, the company's scenic spot business is expected to rebound rapidly after the epidemic. In the short term, Gubei Water Town, as a representative tourist destination in the Beijing-Tianjin region, will still show its leading recovery capabilities despite the continued impact of the epidemic on the tourism market. In the long term, with the continuous changes in epidemic prevention and control policies and the dynamic management of cross-provincial travel down to the county, there is sufficient room for repair of Wuzhen's performance. The repair of long-distance travel, cross-provincial travel, and group travel will improve the company's performance. significant improvement.

's short-term performance has been affected by the repeated decline in passenger flow due to the epidemic. After the epidemic, it will wait for a full recovery of business to repair its performance. Revenue: After the impact of the epidemic eased in 2020, revenue continued to rise. In 2021, local epidemics will recur. On the revenue side: Inbound and outbound tourism business is at a standstill, and inter-provincial tourism business continues to be under pressure, affecting recovery. In 2022Q1, revenue was 1.381 billion yuan. 2021Q1-Q4 revenue was 54.99%/64.12%/73.41%/53.33% of the same period in 2019 respectively. Gross profit margin: The gross profit margin continues to decline, with the gross profit margin in 2020/2021/2022Q1 being 19.44%/18.50%/12.02% respectively. Expense rate: The effect of refined cost control is significant, and the company's expense rate tends to be stable during the period. Looking at the year-by-year basis, the sales expense rate in 2020/2021/2022Q1 is 12.30%/9.51%/11.60% respectively; the administrative expense rate is 8.93%/7.69 respectively. %/9.45%; financial expense rates are 1.94%/2.25%/3.96% respectively; R&D expense rates are 0.17%/0.11%/0.17% respectively. Profit side: The overall performance recovery is relatively slow, and the performance recovery in 2021Q2 is relatively good. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 99 million yuan, which recovered to 31.06% of the same period in 2019.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

2.3.2. Scenic area business still has growth potential after the epidemic, and travel agencies are expected to gradually reduce losses.

Scenic area passenger flow has been suppressed in the short term, but in the long term, it still has strong growth potential after the epidemic. 1) Wuzhen’s passenger flow had already reached tens of millions before the epidemic. It is expected that the post-epidemic restoration will return to a stable growth level. Wuzhen’s performance increase will mainly be driven by the increase in unit price per customer brought by the cultural added value after the transformation of the convention and exhibition town. drive. 2) Gubei Water Town was still in the growth stage before the epidemic. After breaking through the traffic bottleneck, it is expected to open up the passenger flow ceiling. There is still room for improvement in unit price based on high-quality customer sources and the blessing of exhibition business. After the epidemic, Gubei Water Town is expected to achieve both volume and price. Promote high performance growth. 3) The Puyuan project is expected to be put into trial operation in 2022. After operation, it will form a differentiated positioning with Wuzhen. Based on the geographical location and product design and marketing of the same operation team, it is expected that Puyuan and Wuzhen can form a sales and publicity bundle and give full play to their synergy. effect.

travel agency business is mainly engaged in outbound tourism, and is expected to continue to contribute to cash flow after the country opens.Before the epidemic, CYTS Travel Agency mainly dealt in outbound travel products. Before the epidemic, it contributed considerable revenue and cash flow to the company. The travel agency's steady progress of reducing losses year by year was disrupted by the epidemic. Affected by the epidemic, the inter-provincial travel circuit breaker mechanism was frequently triggered, and the revenue of the travel agency business shrank by 90%. The business suffered heavy losses and dragged down the performance. Revenue from the company's travel agency business fell 87% year-on-year in 2020. In 2021, the travel agency business will achieve revenue of 500 million yuan. During the epidemic, the company actively and efficiently controlled expenses, and its gross profit margin level was significantly improved. In the long term, CYTS will accurately determine the recovery trend of the post-epidemic tourism market, firmly adhere to the path of transformation and development, quickly deploy the domestic tourism market, and undertake the dividends of quality and personalized transformation of tourism. After the epidemic, travel agency business is expected to recover quickly, maintain stable revenue and expenditure, and gradually reduce losses.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

2.3.3. Sensitivity calculation of CYTS' post-epidemic recovery performance

Wuzhen, as the core variable of CYTS's performance, was severely damaged after the epidemic. Considering that Wuzhen's passenger flow and passenger orders have recovered to varying degrees in 2023-2024, it will have a significant impact on Wuzhen's contribution to performance. A sensitivity analysis will be conducted on Wuzhen's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023-2024. Wuzhen received 9.18 million/3.69 million passengers in 2019/2021 respectively, with unit price of 191 yuan/234 yuan respectively, and realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 533 million/38 million respectively. We make assumptions about the two core variables of unit price per customer and passenger flow. Under a neutral scenario, we consider that the post-epidemic recovery process requires certain promotions and expenses to boost. Assume that Wuzhen passenger flow will recover to 80% of 2019 in 2023~ 100%, the unit price per customer will increase by 15%~25% compared with 2019, and it is expected to contribute 383~487 million yuan to the net profit attributable to the parent company; assuming that Wuzhen passenger flow returns to 90%~110% of 2019 in 2024, the unit price per customer will increase by 15% compared with 2019 %~25%, and is expected to contribute 471~593 million yuan to the net profit attributable to the parent company.

Gubei Water Town is still in the growth stage. The room for growth of passenger flow is better than that of Wuzhen, and the unit price per passenger continues to be higher than Wuzhen. Based on the recovery degree of different passenger flows and the growth of unit price after the epidemic, the sensitivity of the investment income contributed by Gubei Water Town is analyze. Gubei Water Town received 2.39 million/1.52 million passengers in 2019/2021 respectively, and the unit price per passenger was 397 yuan/505 yuan respectively, contributing investment income of 60 million/22 million respectively (the proportion of the equity income of CYTS in Gubei Water Town is 41.19%). Assumptions are made about the two core variables of passenger unit price and passenger flow. Under a neutral scenario, it is assumed that the passenger flow in Gubei Water Town returns to 100%~120% of 2019 in 2023, and the unit passenger price increases by 20%~40% compared with 2019. It is expected that Contributing investment income of RMB 70-99 million; assuming that the passenger flow in Gubei Water Town recovers to 110%-130% of 2019 in 2024, and the unit price per passenger increases by 30%-50% compared with 2019, it is expected to contribute investment income of RMB 90-122 million.

conducted a sensitivity analysis on the impact of CYTS Scenic Area Business (Wuzhen) and Gubei Water Town on the company's performance, mainly involving two core assumptions: the recovery of passenger flow in Wuzhen and the recovery of passenger flow in Gubei Water Town. The unit price per passenger in Wuzhen and Gubei Water Town is generally on a steady upward trend. After the epidemic, due to the increase in the proportion of individual passengers, the unit price has risen instead of falling. The uncertainty of the unit price after the epidemic is relatively low compared to the passenger flow. Therefore, Considering that the unit price per passenger will have a neutral and steady growth after the epidemic compared with before the epidemic, that is, the unit price per passenger in Wuzhen will increase by 20%+, and the unit price per passenger in Gubei Water Town will increase by 30%+. Wuzhen's passenger flow growth had fallen into the single-digit growth range before the epidemic. After the epidemic, the passenger flow growth rate will return to a low level, while Gubei Water Town has large room for growth in passenger flow after solving the traffic bottleneck. Under a neutral scenario, assuming In 2023, Wuzhen passenger flow will recover to 80%~100% of 2019, and Gubei Water Town passenger flow will return to 100%~120% of 2019, corresponding to the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 of 472~561 million yuan; assuming that Wuzhen passenger flow in 2024 The passenger flow in Gubei Water Town has recovered to 90% to 110% of that in 2019, and the passenger flow in Gubei Water Town has recovered to 110% to 130% of that in 2019, corresponding to the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 of 578 to 679 million yuan.

Domestic tourist arrivals in 2021 were 3.246 billion/+12.75%, recovering to 54.0% of the same period in 2019, and domestic tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan/+31.0%, recovering to 51.0% of the same period in 2019. - DayDayNews

(This article is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice on our part. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original report.)

Selected report source: [Future Think Tank]. Future Think Tank - Official website

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