Global Macro
Before the market opened on Tuesday, U.S. stocks Three major stock index futures were higher before the market opened
Goldman Sachs : The U.S. interest rate market underestimated the risk of recession, betting on The Federal Reserve policy "turned dovish"
Goldman Sachs interest rate strategists said that the U.S. market Downplaying the risk of a recession in 2024; Goldman Sachs also joined the recent wave of bets that the Federal Reserve will shift to dovish policy. Strategists said that although the market's implicit expectations for the Fed's policy rate have dropped to "limited downside" levels in early 2023 over the past few weeks, the market's pricing of the federal funds rate in 2024 may be underestimating the risk of recession. Fed interest rate swaps indicate that the policy rate will peak at around 3.60% in March 2023, approximately 200 basis points above the current federal funds rate level. That compares with expectations of around 4% just a few weeks ago. Since then, activity in short-term interest rate options has surged on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates significantly in 2023 and 2024.
Why should we pay attention to the "inventory crisis" in the US retail industry? "The Big Short Prototype": The Fed will reverse tightening as a result!
"Big Short Prototype" Michael Burry said that the previous oversupply in the retail industry formed a "bullwhip effect", and as demand slows, the "bullwhip effect" comes to an end and will trigger currency later this year Tightening has prompted the Federal Reserve to reverse its tightening path and even restart easing.
Citi said the probability of global economic recession is 50%, lowering the S&P 500 target to 4200 points
Citi analysts have lowered the target for the US S&P 500 Index this year by 500 points to 4200 points, after high inflation prompted the Federal Reserve Massive hike to . Citi economists now believe there is a 50% chance of a global recession, the report said. Citi analysts believe that if an economic recession does come, the time point will be mid-2023. High inflation and the risk of stagflation will still exist, and income risks will be a bigger problem next year.
Goldman Sachs still holds high the bullish flag: Brent oil is expected to rise to $140 this summer, now is a good buying opportunity
Although oil prices have fallen for two consecutive weeks for the first time since April, Goldman Sachs has increased its bullish bets on crude oil and is expected to International crude oil prices are expected to hit US$140 per barrel this summer. Jeff Currie, chief commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs, believes that the recent fall in oil prices is a buying opportunity.
White House : Several companies plan to invest more than $700 million to increase the production capacity of electric vehicle charging piles in the United States.
The White House said on Tuesday that several companies plan to invest more than $700 million to increase the production capacity of electric vehicle charging piles in the United States. The measure will add at least 2,000 jobs and make charging cheaper and more convenient. According to the White House, these investments include $450 million from Electrify America, a unit of $Volkswagen (ADR)(VWAGY.US)$, and $2.5 billion from $Siemens(ADR)(SIEGY.US)$ billion to expand its electric vehicle charging station facilities in Grand Prairie, Texas, and Ponoma, California. The White House stated that these investments will help increase the production capacity of electric vehicle charging piles in the United States to more than 250,000 units per year, but did not give a figure for current production capacity.
Hot news
Occidental Petroleum rose nearly 4% before the market opened, and Buffett 's Berkshire once again increased its holdings
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway once again increased its holdings on June 23 $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) $ stock, purchased a total of 794,000 shares at a price of 55.39-56.09 US dollars per share, spending approximately 44 million US dollars (equivalent to approximately 300 million yuan), and the shareholding ratio increased to 16.4%. As of press time, Occidental Petroleum rose nearly 4% before the market opened.
Tesla’s Q2 delivery volume may not be as expected, and major banks such as Mizuho and Morgan Stanley have collectively lowered their target prices
Due to concerns about macroeconomic factors such as interest rate hikes and continued pressure on the supply chain, $ Tesla (TSLA.US )$ has been intensively lowered by many major international banks recently.Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered his Tesla target price to $1,150 per share from $1,300 per share on Monday. He is worried that rising parts costs and falling vehicle prices will limit the company's future sales and profits.
In addition to Mizuho, many major international banks, including Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse, have recently lowered Tesla's target price. These investment banks believe that higher interest rates will reduce Tesla's future earnings at the current discount price and therefore make it less attractive to investors. Additionally, they are pessimistic about Tesla's delivery numbers.
The world's largest lithium mine manufacturer announced a bold expansion plan: lithium production will quadruple in eight years!
On Monday Eastern Time, $Albemarle (ALB.US)$ executives announced a bold expansion plan: the company plans to increase the company's lithium production to about five times the current level by 2030, reaching 500,000 per year Ton. In addition, the company also officially announced a key step to achieve this expansion goal: establishing a lithium processing plant in the United States with an annual output of 100,000 tons - the output of this plant is equivalent to the company's current total output. It is enough to show that the company is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the US electric vehicle industry. According to the company's previously announced information, the company expects lithium production to reach about 200,000 tons in 2025.
Is the charm of the "female stock goddess" not diminished? The share price of the flagship fund ARKK has halved this year, but capital has flowed in for 8 consecutive days
Amid the "headwinds" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike , the net value of the Ark Innovation ETF owned by Wall Street star fund manager Cathy Wood has halved this year. According to data compiled by the media, investors have poured funds into the $9.5 billion $ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US) $ for eight consecutive days, with a total amount of $639 million. The last time ARKK recorded such a prolonged period of inflows was in March 2021, one month after the ETF reached its all-time peak.
Disney rose more than 2% before the market opened. Shanghai Disneyland will open on June 30.
At 14:00 today (June 28th), Shanghai Disneyland officially announced that it will reopen tickets and will officially open on June 30. Ticket sales The time is 7 a.m. on June 29. On travel platforms such as , Ctrip, , Qunar, and Tongcheng, the number of real-time visits to "Disney" soared 655% month-on-month, with search volume ranking first among theme parks in the country. Hotels around Shanghai Disney have also become popular, with instant search volume rising by 260%. %, and the booking volume increased by 1.5 times compared with June 27. As of press time, $Disney (DIS.US)$ rose more than 2% before the market opened.
After the "Roe v. Wade" was overturned, birth control pill prices continued to soar before the market opened.
As the U.S. Supreme Court last Friday officially announced that it had overturned the 1973 "Roe v. Wade" ruling and canceled the constitutional provisions. abortion rights. This latest legal ruling also caused chaos in the market. The stock prices of American contraceptive companies soared rapidly. As of press time, $Evofem Biosciences(EVFM.US)$ and $Agile Therapeutics(AGRX.US)$ both rose by more than 100% before the market opened. 37%, $Dare Bioscience (DARE.US)$ rose more than 4%.
Focus on Chinese concept stocks
Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose before the market opened
Ctrip.com rose more than 15% before the market opened, with net income in the first quarter of 4.1 billion yuan
In the first quarter of 2022, $Ctrip.com (TCOM.US) $net operating income was 4.1 billion yuan, adjusted EBITDA was 91 million yuan, and the net loss attributable to the company's shareholders was 989 million yuan (approximately US$155 million), compared with the net profit attributable to the company's shareholders in the same period in 2021 of 1.8 billion yuan renminbi.
In addition, The National Health Commission released the ninth version of the new coronavirus pneumonia prevention and control plan, adjusting the isolation and control time of close contacts and immigrants from "14+7" to "7+3". As of press time, Ctrip’s pre-market price rose by more than 15%.
Taiwanese media: TSMC has determined that most process foundry prices will increase by about 6% starting from January next year. On June 28, Taiwan Electronic Times reported that TSMC has determined that starting from January 2023, foundry prices for most processes will increase by about 6%. This despite recent concerns that demand in many end markets may disappoint in the second half of 2022.
Morgan Stanley: Prosus sells shares to eliminate threats, JD.com continues to be the first choice for e-commerce
Morgan Stanley issued a research report stating that for Tencent 's major shareholder $Naspers (ADR) (NPSNY.US) $'s Prosus Announced that it has completed the sale of $JD.com (JD.US)$ shares. The bank believes that the sale of shares by Prosus has eliminated the threat. It believes that investors will refocus on JD.com’s fundamentals in the second half of the year. It is expected that JD.com’s growth in the second half of the year will still outperform its peers, while JD.com continues to It is the first choice in the e-commerce sector, with a target price of US$80 and an overweight rating.
UBS: Raise the target price of Li Auto from US$52 to US$60, with a buy rating
UBS issued a research report and included $Li Auto (LI.US)$ on the UBS Asia-Pacific key buy list. It is pointed out that Ideal recently officially released the Ideal L9, with bookings exceeding 30,000 in three days. At the same time, it has not significantly cannibalized the orders of Ideal One. It is expected that if the monthly sales exceed 10,000 units, the L9 will become the highest-priced model among Chinese automobile brands to achieve this sales level. , leaving more room for Ideal to add new models to its product portfolio. If Ideal launches new sedan and SUV models covering extended range and pure electric vehicles in the future, the potential for revenue growth will be huge. Ideal's stock price has rebounded by about 70% from its lows in the past month, and 's year-to-date return on has reached 27%. It is believed that the rebound is mainly due to industry stimulus policies. Based on a forecast price-to-sales ratio of 3 times in 2023, the target price has been raised to US$60.
U.S. stock pre-market turnover TOP20
U.S. macroeconomic calendar reminder:
20:30 U.S. retail inventory monthly rate in May
20:30 U.S. wholesale inventory monthly rate initial value in May
21:00 U.S. SP/CS house price index in 20 major cities in April
22 :00 U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in June
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 17
editor/somer
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