Reporter Hao Cheng Reported in Beijing
As a popular "window" in recent years, China's e-cigarette industry seems to have entered a rare period of calm after the new regulations were implemented on May 1. However, the reporter of " China Business News " learned that although they are silent on the surface, in fact, each company is actively promoting license applications and product reviews, waiting for the launch of the national unified e-cigarette transaction management platform on June 15.
According to the new regulations, e-cigarettes will be included in the traditional cigarette sales system for supervision, and license application and product review are necessary steps to enter the system.
In the past month, although there has been less progress news, product trends seem to have become clearer. Especially at the end of May, after Smore International (06969.HK), which is in the upstream position and ranks at the top of the industry, launched the world's first disposable "ceramic core", the market judgment that disposable products will continue to be popular has once again been highlighted.
's " ceramic core " disposable atomization solution is named "FEELM Max". This product recently appeared at the Birmingham Exhibition in the UK. Smore also brought more than 10 disposable products with different functions and appearances - this seems to further confirm the industry's previous statement that "disposable products will continue to be used" after the new regulations. "Hot" judgment.
html On May 27th, in Birmingham, England, Smore unveiled the world's first "ceramic core" disposable atomization solution. Photo courtesy of interviewee Leading companies enter the one-time track
Reviewing recent brokerage research reports, Smore is favored by CICC , Guosheng , CITIC and many other securities firms.
Among them, Guosheng Securities research report stated that it maintains the "buy" rating of Smore and estimates that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 15.6 billion yuan, 18.313 billion yuan, and 22.252 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, 17.4%, 21.5 %), the adjusted net profit in 2023/2024 will be 5.124 billion yuan and 6.305 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 27.4% and 23%).
The report stated that FEELM MAX perfectly solves the pain points of cotton core products and adds the advantages of scale automation (the new production line will have a production capacity of approximately 5 billion after its implementation, and the automated production line UPH can reach 7,200 standard atomizers/hour, far exceeding the industry level) , is expected to maintain strong market competitiveness while effectively controlling gross profit levels.
Prior to this, there was a lot of discussion in the industry due to the waste of atomization liquid in cotton core products. However, during the period of wild growth in the past, this problem seemed to only be in the discussion stage. According to reports, the FEELM Max solution is also equipped with a constant power electronic control solution, which, coupled with the high stability of the ceramic material itself, can greatly improve the consistency and stability of the product's taste. At the same time, replacing the liquid storage cotton with a "ceramic core" effectively reduces the waste of atomized liquid caused by the liquid storage cotton, and the number of mouths under the same liquid injection volume is increased by at least 25%.
"We use ceramic atomizing cores, which can greatly improve the utilization rate of atomizing liquid compared with mainstream liquid storage cotton disposable products on the market. This means that the same volume of atomizing liquid can bring more The number of mouths allows consumers to get more benefits." Steven Yang, R&D director of Smore's FEELM business group, told reporters.
According to a previous Sullivan report, the global disposable market size will be US$2.13 billion in 2021, accounting for 22.7% of the e-atomization market. It is expected that the annual growth rate of the global disposable market will exceed 28% from 2022 to 2026, making it one of the fastest growing categories in the global e-atomization market.
As an upstream and leading company in the industry, Smore said at the performance conference at the end of March 2022 that it will fully enter the disposable market overseas this year. The focus is to use the technology accumulated in years of research and development to make disposable solutions more popular. The taste is better.
According to reports, the FEELM Max "ceramic core" disposable atomization solution is a new generation of long-life ceramic core developed over two years based on Smoor's long-term research and development accumulation of ceramic technology. A leap-forward upgrade has been achieved in the three dimensions of "good taste and higher consistency". With microporous atomization based on ceramic cores, the atomized particles can reach the nanometer level. At the same time, FEELM Air will soon be launched in different markets such as South Korea, Japan, and EU .
Brokerages are optimistic about "research and development" companies
"Betting on disposable products can be said to be an inevitable choice under the current uncertainty.In the long run, the industry has previously recognized that disposable products will experience a greater growth rate in the next 5 to 10 years. Sullivan reported that the annual growth rate will exceed 28%. This fact can also be seen in previous relevant research reports. judgment. "An industry insider in the downstream industry told reporters.
html On May 27, in Birmingham, England, Smore brought more than 10 disposable products with different functions and appearances. Photo provided by the interviewee Interestingly, the reporter noticed that, Since entering 2021, brokerage research reports have often mentioned R&D investment, number of patents, etc. when referring to e-cigarettes, an Internet celebrity-level "outlet". Some industry insiders have said that this also means that from the perspective of capital, The early era of brutal expansion is destined to calm down with the arrival of new regulations. From now on, it will be an era that pays more attention to quality and research and development. “After all, everyone will be in the same system in the future, and the possibility of winning purely through marketing and channel construction will "Significantly reduced".
According to relevant research reports, Smore's R&D expenditure in 2021 will be 670 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 59.7%), and the planned R&D expenditure in 2022 will be 1.68 billion yuan (exceeding the total of the past six years). As of 2021 By the end of the year, the company had deployed 7 basic research institutes around the world and applied for 3,408 patents (of which invention patents accounted for 46.1%).
CICC released a report stating that based on Smore’s plan to increase R&D investment to drive mid- to long-term For sustainable growth, the profit forecast for 2022 and 2023 has been lowered by 28% and 26% respectively to 3.89 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan, corresponding to 23 times and 18 times price-earnings ratios respectively. Maintaining the "outperform industry" rating, adjustments based on profit forecasts , adjusted the target price to 26 yuan.
CICC believes that as a global leader in atomization technology, Smol is expected to continue to promote the development of new products and new technologies through strong R&D and innovation capabilities, and continue to lead industry changes and maintain its leading position.
However, while China has incorporated e-cigarette specifications into traditional cigarette supervision with new regulations, for the global market, the industry believes that the barbaric growth stage of disposable e-cigarettes has no obvious signs of ending. Some big brands have extensive development and market marketing over quality. The problem is still relatively prominent. As a result, the industry’s vicious circle of involution, characterized by “low quality and low price”, has not yet been broken.
Many industry insiders believe that solving the problem of involution in the global disposable e-cigarette industry requires not only technology Innovation and upgrading also require the creation of new iterative products for the future. At the Birmingham exhibition, Smore's series of disposable products focusing on green environmental protection have attracted great attention from the industry.
It is reported that Smore has currently targeted environmental protection , carbon reduction, and green themes launched the FUTURE series. This series includes recyclable/easy to disassemble, environmentally friendly/degradable materials and minimalist environmentally friendly designs. In the future, FEELM Max’s “technical resource library” will be continuously expanded to create a green technology-based High-quality disposable products.
In addition, Smore's brand VAPORESSO also released the open technology solution COREX at this exhibition, and brought the most powerful reloadable POD LUXE X equipped with the COREX solution, and the innovative product xTank , and three products including Gen PT60/80S.
html On May 31, as of press time, Smore International's share price hit an intraday high of HK$19.20 per share, up 9.22%.(Editor: Meng Qingwei Proofreader: Zhai Jun)
