Recently, the NDR of the US investment institution predicted that the probability that the current global economy of is in a "recession quagmire" has risen to 98.1% . and the global economic development in 2023 has also released a risk signal of "severe recession". On September 27, World Economic Forum also issued similar expectations.
On the 16th, World Bank released a report stating that as monetary policy becomes increasingly tight, the global economy has slowed down significantly. At the same time, the report pointed out that if the major central banks still rely too much on radical interest rate hikes to suppress inflation, a global economic recession in 2023 may be "unavoidable".
In addition, the World Bank also pointed out that while the growth rate of in major economies such as Europe and the United States is slowing down, the "vulnerability" of the global economy is being exposed. 9 forecast data shows that the European region is only 14% likely to achieve moderate economic growth in 2023. Experts estimate that the European economy will be "very weak" by then.
On the 26th, European Central Bank President Lagarde issued an early warning. She pointed out that at least for some time in the future, inflation levels in Europe will continue to be at high levels, which makes the outlook for European economic growth "not optimistic". In her opinion, Europe's 2023 will be a "hard year".
data also shows that the probability of moderate growth in the United States in 2023 is 37% , less than 4% %. In fact, after , the Federal Reserve announced that it would continue to raise interest rates for some time, they also significantly lowered their U.S. economic growth expectations in 2022. In addition, Goldman Sachs still maintains this "zero growth" estimate.
. Regarding the outlook for economic growth in 2023, Goldman Sachs gave the latest value of 1.1%, but Fitch is even more pessimistic. They estimate that it is only 0.5%, and they believe that the United States will fall into a "moderate recession" in the middle of 2023. In addition, some professionals in the market have evaluated that the probability of the US economy entering a recession is as high as 80%.
In comparison, economists will appear to be more optimistic about China's predictions. They believe that there is a possibility that China's economy will achieve moderate growth next year that it is possible. The World Bank predicts that China's economic growth may be 4.5% in 2023. In addition, Goldman Sachs Group also made the same estimate.
text | Zheng Hongjie Title | Huang Zixin Review | Zeng Yi
