On the evening of October 7, the U.S. stock opened low overnight. The US non-farm employment data in September exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate continued to rise, which greatly increased the possibility of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in November 275 basis points. As a result, the market is worried that the Fed's violent interest rate hike in 2022 will lead to the United States in the second recession in four years.
Affected by the sluggish demand for chips and the decline in prices, a large number of American chip companies, such as Supermicro Corporation AMD, Samsung , Micron Technology , etc., have lowered their performance guidance and reduced spending, which directly reflected the U.S. stock market overnight, and the chip sector plummeted.
As of the morning statistics of Beijing time on October 8, Beijing time,
is even more tragic. AMD's cumulative decline in the whole year of 2022 was 62%. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 6.1%, our familiar Nvidia fell more than 8.0%, Applied Materials fell 6.3, and Intel fell nearly 5.4%. More than half of the stock prices of first-tier semiconductor companies have been halved in the past year (see Figure 1 below for the statistics of October-December 2021, and Nvidia's highest stock price in November 2021 was 346, and closed this week, falling to 120 (see Figure 2), and the tragic situation is unspeakable.
Figure 1 Ranking of semiconductor companies with the largest market value in the US stock market
Figure 2: Nvidia's stock price has been going on for a year
People can't help but ask, what's wrong with chips? The answer is simple. With the combined effect of slowing global demand and increasing inventory, the entire chip market performed sluggishly. As the most sensitive memory chip , the most sensitive memory chip, is particularly affected.
chip, or semiconductor sector, is the core track sector of A-share market in 2020-2022, and has attracted much attention. However, in the past year, the stock prices of many companies within the sector have basically converged with the US stock market and Hong Kong stock , falling and falling. Taking 688981's SMIC as an example, the stock price has been downward since its listing for two years and three months (see the figure below), and closed at 37.78 on the last trading day before the festival. From the trend, there is still room for further decline.
688981 SMIC's monthly K-line
chip has just arrived, but we can't hibernate. It will not be until the global demand side improves, but there will be a spring of chips.
I will continue to collect and organize relevant analysis reports; please continue to pay attention. This study is the result of individuals using models for long-term dynamic and static analysis, and is not used as an investment basis.
