1. Market price
Lunar aluminum rose mainly during the National Day holiday. As of 12:00 Beijing time on October 7, Lunar aluminum price was quoting US$2353.5/ton, up US$121.5/ton from US$2232/ton at 15:00 on September 30, an increase of 5.44%.
offshore RMB as of 12:00 Beijing time on October 7, 7.1018, a 46 basis points depreciation from 7.0972 at 15:00 on September 30.
During the domestic National Day holiday, Shanghai aluminum market was closed, and there was almost no trading in the domestic market, and the premium and discount prices remained stable. As of September 30, the basis of Mysteel electrolytic aluminum was -40 yuan/ton, and the spot transaction prices of Foshan , Gongyi , Wuxi were given a discount to the local Mysteel electrolytic aluminum quotation, a discount of 40 yuan/ton, and a discount of 10 yuan/ton respectively.
Data source: Mysteel
Data source: Mysteel
2. Social inventory According to
Mysteel survey, it is expected that during the National Day holiday, the overall arrival of aluminum ingots in the three mainstream areas of Foshan, Wuxi and Gongyi is estimated to be about 1,500 groups.
Comparison of social inventory of electrolytic aluminum around National Day in previous years (10,000 tons)
3. Industry hot spots
[Economic data]
Eurozone's final manufacturing PMI in September was 48.4, the previous value was 48.5, and the expected value was 48.5.
US ISM manufacturing PMI 50.9 in September, with the previous value of 52.8 and the expected value of 52.2.
The number of ADP employment in the United States in September was 20.8, the previous value was 18.5, and the expected value was 20.
[ Fed officials continue to make hawkish remarks]
Fed officials continue to make hawkish remarks, emphasizing the need to further raise interest rates in . This year's vote Cleveland Fed Chairman Mestre said U.S. inflation is unacceptable. Next year, Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkali said that more work should be done to reduce inflation. Federal Reserve Director Cook said that restoring price stability may require continuous interest rate hikes, and then implement restricted interest rate policies for a period of time. Fed governor Waller expects a rate hike early next year, and Friday’s jobs report may not change the Fed’s view that it should be 100% focused on reducing inflation. Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said further interest rates are needed, and the next meeting will discuss whether the rate hike is 50 basis points or 75 basis points, and the interest rate is likely to reach 4.5%-4.75% next spring.
[IMF will lower the global GDP growth rate expectations in 2023 next week]
IMF President Georgieva said that the risk of a global recession is rising, and the IMF will lower the global GDP growth rate expectations in 2023 next week. Orkieva warned that if a recession occurs, it could lose $4 trillion in economic output by 2026, which is roughly equivalent to the size of the German economy. Regarding the radical interest rate hike policy of the central bank in many countries, she called on policy makers to "stay to the end".
[LME will limit the new delivery of copper and zinc for Russian Ural Mining Metallurgical Co., Ltd.]
London Metal Exchange (LME) will limit the new delivery of copper and zinc for Russian Ural Mining Metallurgical Co., Ltd. (UMMC) and one of its subsidiaries. LME solicited comments from members on the issue of banning Russian metal products trading: one of the options is to suspend the guarantees of Russian metals from its exchange's global warehouses.
[September car sales are expected to increase year-on-year and month-on-month]
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: Data estimates that in September 2022, the sales volume was 2.519 million vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 21.3%; from January to September 2022, the sales volume was 19.379 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%.
[Domestic epidemic spread]
Domestic epidemic continues to spread, and some counties where electrolytic aluminum smelters are located implement temporary control measures, and electrolytic aluminum plants implement sealing and control management.
