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We have talked about international markets many times and domestic markets many times.
Let’s first review the previous situation.
1. For the time being, there is no solution to the inflation problem encountered by the United States, even if the rate hike continues .
2. But even if there is no way, Feder will continue to raise interest rates, because no matter whether it is effective or not, you will have to get a fever-reducing injection when you have a fever.
3. The solution to inflation is likely to be the jokes made by Goldman Sachs at the beginning of the year. Goldman Sachs said that after the US economy enters recession, everyone has no jobs and will be completely unable to inflation. This is the principle of the decline in demand, and the problem is solved by itself.
4. No one wants to enter a recession, but from some market voices at the beginning of the year expected the United States to enter a recession the next year to a few months ago most voices expected the United States to enter a recession next year. To now, a few voices suspect that this winter is about to enter a recession.
combined to find intersections, it seems that the United States is about to enter a recession.
5. The reason why the whole world is paying attention to when the United States will enter a recession is because this matter is closely related to the Fed's interest rate hike strategy. It is impossible for the United States to enter a recession and not release money and continue to raise interest rates. This is impossible.
6. Before this problem is solved, we cannot see the true normalization of energy prices. After all, energy prices were not caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war.
After all, if the United States enters a recession, energy prices cannot be high, even if Russia wants to do so. The demand side is gone, how can the price be maintained?
This is the change in the international market over the past six months. So I have also given a very important point in the domestic market, that is, you should refer to the Federal Reserve.
The stage of the Federal Reserve hike rate , our room for water release is very limited. This is determined by exchange rate . Even if we are not circulating completely like Europe and Japan, the pressure of the valve has a threshold, so in the final analysis, the Fed's monetary attitude can still indirectly affect us.
So, for domestic readers who are releasing liquidity, you need to pay attention to the Federal Reserve. The domestic market and the international market are still linked to some extent.
This month, the United States has changed.
We have noticed some interesting phenomena, such as US stock rebounded, such as precious metal , such as gold, such as commodity , which also rebounded, and for example, European stock markets, which also rebounded.
All this is interesting.
From the data, the US ISM manufacturing data is weak and the new order data is weak, which is likely to mean that the US economy will enter a recession earlier.
If all this is implemented, then the expectation of the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hike by 75 points will fall.
After all, everyone is waiting for the turning point. Either inflation has been resolved, interest rate hikes have worked, or the US economy has been recession and interest rate hikes have been forced to be suspended.
From the data point of view, this is the support reason for the data side that has led to the rebound of European and American stock markets in recent days, along with commodities.
The market began to doubt the Federal Reserve's determination.
Of course, whether to turn to this point may not be the opinion of Morgan Stanley chief stock strategist, the market bet on the Fed's interest rate hike strategy to turn as early as May next year.
Please note that it gives a very interesting time point.
Next May, the earliest. That is to say, he believes that the Fed's attitude towards rate hikes will remain hawkish before May next year.
But we should also note that Morgan Stanley is the short seller, one of the main short sellers. We talked about it at the beginning of the year. At the end of last year, Goldman Sachs had a large number of institutional short-selling lists. This list was disclosed only in the middle of this year, and we disclosed it at the beginning of the year.In the
list, Morgan Stanley is the big short seller.
Big short sellers said that they were as early as May next year, and this is not necessarily credible. Do you understand what I mean? They also need time to close their positions and settle their profits.
Of course, it will be early, we don’t know that this kind of understanding of others’ words can only be used as a guess, has no reference value, and cannot be used to make decisions.
I can only say that so far, the market has two views. One is the reason to support the rebound. They feel that the Fed's interest rate hike strategy is unsustainable.
Another type is the opposite attitude, they think it is still half a year.
Of course, if you are careful, you will find that the two have something in common, and the common point is that they are clear that the Fed's interest rate hike cannot last forever. It's just about what time it ends.
This is what we want to talk about, and it is related to the country.
I mentioned earlier. We have talked about whether the country can be easing is also closely related to the Fed's interest rate hike.
In other words, the Fed's rate hike is constantly paced, and it is difficult for us to relax.
However, corresponding to the rebound caused by the Fed's interest rate hike in October, the domestic central bank and the Ministry of Finance also showed some tentative easing news on the last day of September.
For example, you lower the interest rate for the first personal housing provident fund loan to support residents to purchase housing Personal income tax reduction and exemption. Why do I say
is tentative? Because you will find that it is still a signal to support you in order to support your leverage in response to autonomous or improved needs.
Many people interpret it as the kind that we have experienced several times in the past twenty years, but it is actually different.
Please note that this targeting is still very obvious. Although we all know that self-occupancy improvement must have great investment attributes, there is still a fundamental difference between self-occupancy improvement and pure investment.
And what is the most important thing? It is what we said before that the key point of global issues lies in the Federal Reserve.
This is the cause, and other countries are staring at this cause.
This week is non-agricultural again. The United States is not a manufacturing power, we are, the United States is a consumer power. Compared with manufacturing data, non-agricultural resources are the real reference system.
I think it is too early for the market to guess the Fed's monetary policy shift based on a few manufacturing data at this time.
After all, there is not only one United States in this game. You have to be clear that Europe ranks ahead of the United States. Perhaps, before the United States ushered in a recession, Europe fell first.
I think, this is the Fed's plan that cannot be put forward...
As for what this plan is, it is not that important to understand, but not to understand.
I said it clearly yesterday. For a person, you must first have a deep understanding of the nature of wealth, and secondly, you must build your own complete profit system.
If you don’t finish these two things, the rest are castles in the air. If you understand the market information aspect, you can do whatever you can, and you can't do it.
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