In the future, the fluctuation range of market trading electricity prices will be adjusted from no more than 10% and 15%, respectively, to no more than 20% in principle. In the context of tight electricity supply and demand, electricity prices are expected to rise.
It should be pointed out that the trading electricity price fluctuates by 20%, power resources will better return to commodity attributes, and the increase in electricity prices is to better solve the dilemma of long-term losses in power plants due to rising coal prices .
This means that the electricity price fluctuates by 20%, which is mainly benefited by the power supply side. Power plants have a certain right to speak of the increase in electricity prices, which will further promote the enthusiasm of capital investment in power projects.
Coal power, wind power and photovoltaics have little impact
Therefore, the scale of coal investment will still be restricted. The investment units of individual projects are all above one million level, and the main body is centrally-owned enterprises.
The cost of coal accounts for nearly 70% of the operation and maintenance costs of coal power projects. It has been fully commoditized, and as a futures in the financial market, it will definitely be hyped. Therefore, capital wants to benefit from the coal power game. difficult.
For capital, new energy will be a key area for investment. Wind power and photovoltaics are both low-density resources. If power generation is to go up, it must be developed on a large scale. Therefore, the demand for land resources is very large.
In addition, wind power and photovoltaic power generation are inefficient, and the generated electricity is also unstable. Large-scale connection to the grid cannot be achieved. If it is equipped with energy storage and peak shaving power station, the cost of electricity will reach more than 2 yuan , The payback period is at least 8 years.
Therefore, for capital, long-term holding of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is not worthwhile. Wind power and photovoltaics are still the king of equipment, and it is the best choice to take over by a central enterprise after the completion of the power plant.
Biomass power plant economic analysis
Hedging fuel costs, the economics of power plants far exceed those of wind power and photovoltaics.
is the same as coal power,Fuel is the largest cost of operation and maintenance of biomass power plants, accounting for almost 60% of the annual revenue. In the absence of subsidies, a biomass power plant with pure power generation can only maintain a balance of payments.
Suppose a biomass power plant with pure power generation, with an installed capacity of 130T+3.5W generating units; generating 270 million kilowatt-hours a year, ’s benchmark price is calculated at 0.35; 10,000 tons, the straw price is calculated at an average price of 300 yuan.
1. The basic income of benchmarking electricity price (excluding electricity price subsidies): 270 million * 0.35-27 million * 3-12 million (various costs) = 94.5-93 million = 1.5 million. If there is no subsidy, the power plant is worth playing for nothing for a year.
2. 20% increase in electricity price income: 270 million * (0.35 + 20%) + 1.5 million = 20.4 million. It can be seen that the increase in electricity prices has greatly increased the income of biomass power generation.
3. If the subsidy + heating is calculated, the payback period of biomass power plants is 5 years, but after the electricity price rises by 20%, the payback period will be shortened to 3 years, which is absolutely true for capital Very cost-effective investment.
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