The market rebounded strongly this week as expected after the low on the 20th, followed by complex shocks. Such shocks are expected to continue until the 1st. And the trading volume of the two cities has reached the trillions of inflows for 29 consecutive days. Such trading volume is likely to trigger a larger market, so pay attention to the outbreak of securities at any time. Another point is the continued inflow of 6.2 billion yuan of funds from the north, which shows that the current northbound funds are also very optimistic. Therefore, it is difficult to judge how to go in September. It can only be seen while walking, but no matter how you go, as long as you stay above 1 trillion, I The trend stocks that believe that themes and strong logic will not end, all you have to do is get in the car and hold it. The continuous rise of
from metal silicon triggered the continuous rise of midstream organic silicon, which drove the continuous rise of Hesheng Silicon Industry. That is to say, as long as the silicone price keeps rising, Hesheng will not stop, so you can hold it with peace of mind. Including Xin'an shares , and now is the acceleration section. And what I want to say is not silicone, but the segmented market in lithium batteries, from lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide, electrolytes and solvents. I think the moment is the accelerating section, and I will talk more about it on the 31st. I hope everyone will not miss another Hesheng at that time! In addition to
, there are two other small topics to note:
1. The VR startup Pico sent a letter from all staff to confirm that it was acquired by ByteDance , and GoerTek shares is its strategic supplier. After being acquired by ByteDance, Pico will continue to cooperate with GoerTek as the head customer. The two parties have signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement to ensure the stable operation of the supply chain. (VR subject matter has been witnessed by the surge in GoerTek’s performance, and the boom has begun to rebound sharply. At the end of September, Apple may launch VR and will drive the subject matter. In addition, the number of VR users exceeds 10 million. If human-computer interaction can be realized, it will usher in a true blue ocean.)
2, Yunda also announced that starting from September 1st, the end of the network will be increased by 0.1 yuan. So far, Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong , Best, Yunda and other mastery companies have all decided to increase their distribution fees.(Express delivery continues to plummet and core performance declines, and the reason for the decline is that revenue does not increase profit, but the unit price is affected by the extremely rabbit express price war. Will the price increase this time be negotiated is just the beginning, the price war At the end, we will usher in the return of valuation in the future. This year, the national express delivery volume is expected to reach 95 billion pieces, and 1 cent can bring the industry's 9.5 billion profit. Yunda City accounts for 17% and can be divided into 1.6 billion. 1.4 billion. Yuantong City accounts for 15.2% and can be divided into 1.44 billion, while last year’s net profit was only 1.76 billion) (So don’t underestimate the power of this 1 dime, it may double the performance of the industry!)
It will be broadcast live on Wednesday, August 31 at 20 o'clock. To be determined, you are ready for Moutai and I am ready for high-quality stocks!
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Focus on themes:
1. Cement + steel can be focused on in the third quarter, logic: 1. The peak season is coming, 2. Environmental protection + power curtailment and production cuts are coming. Third, the lithium battery ebbs, and there is a high probability that the cyclical stocks of cement and steel will have a relay. (Cement 2 protection method: Huaxin Cement + Conch Cement. Steel 3 Swordsman: Bayi Steel , TISCO Stainless, Jiugang Hongxing) Please like and comment, thank you! )
2. Event: Domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have risen by more than 50% since the second half of the year. The price of the US natural gas futures contract rose to US$4.2 per million British thermal units on August 18, twice the amount last year. Asia has soared six times in the past year,Europe skyrocketed 10 times in 14 months.
Key logic and future opportunities:
1. 2015 has been the hottest six years on record. However, with the heat wave in the northern hemisphere, the cooling load has increased significantly, and the demand for natural gas as a fuel for power supply in Europe and the United States has surged. (Drive logic)
2. Natural gas inventories in Asia, Europe, and the United States began to decline, and European natural gas inventories were 25% lower than the 5-year average. (Continuing flashpoints of future events)
3. In the next few years, with the improvement of global carbon neutrality, the demand for natural gas may continue to grow. By 2024, the global demand for natural gas may increase to 4.3 trillion cubic meters. (Long-term logical growth point)
4. This year, my country's natural gas imports have increased by 24% year-on-year. Among them, LNG imports accounted for 67%, a year-on-year increase of 92%. The proportion of natural gas imports in consumption has also been rising, gradually increasing from 36% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. (Current situation in our country)
5. But the current is only the off-season, and the peak season will enter next month. The peak heating season starting around September 25 will inevitably increase this gap and the price outbreak. At least 8,000 can be seen in space, which means there is still 40% of the space. It is possible to reach 10,000 and it is not without probability.
Look at the picture for the benefit year. This time I'm talking about long-term logic rather than short-term participation. Buying and selling depends on individuals. Please push the oil if it is useful, thank you!
3. Price increase theme: Lithium carbonate exceeded 120,000 and increased by 4% (Tianqi, Yanhu, Shengxin, Ganfeng, etc.). Another key concern was formic acid, which rose 8.24% to 4,600 yuan per ton (Focus on Luxi Chemical )! In addition, Musk approved the Tesla Model 3 to test the iron phosphate lithium battery. Musk replied: "The experience of lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery is roughly the same. I prefer lithium iron phosphate battery_ span4span can be charged to 100%, ternary lithium battery only reaches 90%.” (A full-blown outbreak may occur tomorrow)
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Summary: The theme is flying in shock,Light is also feasible. Lithium will take the world. In the second half of the year, photovoltaics and lithium batteries will only be crazier and will not be absent!
hit the board yesterday: Tibet Mining (22% holding), Guotai Junan (-7% holding), Juhua shares (13% holding out), 603133 carbon yuan (-5%) , 002211 Hongda (4.7% holding). Akcome Technology (4.2% out).
Low yesterday: Zijin Mining (+2% holding) Nanning Sugar (15% holding), Huaxin Cement (+11% holding), Shida Shenghua (7%), Xin'an Stock (14%), Hesheng Silicon (29%), Chinalco (12.9%), Northern Rare Earth (5.4%), Juhua (9%).
Current hot concepts: lithium battery + new energy industry + phosphorous chemical industry + photovoltaic.
Today: 603,133 million yuan.
: Yuanxing Energy , Xiangtan Electrochemical , Yuntianhua , Shengxin Lithium Energy, GEM , GoerTek.
Today's low buying: Rongjie shares, salt lake shares .
Tomorrow will be marked: 603286 Riying, 605167 Liber, 002057 Sinosteel , 600602 Yunsai, 002497 Yahua, 605005 Hexing, Shengxin Lithium Energy. (10 for board marking)
Tomorrow low: Zijin Mining, Guotai Junan (17.20), Shida Shenghua, Salt Lake Co., Ltd., Rongjie Co., Ltd., Watson Bio.
Market Comments:
The overall market this week is a complex oscillating structure. The overall performance is as expected. In last week’s review, I focused on reminding everyone to expect a rebound to the 24th after the low of the 20th, and then the complexity. The current structure proves this. The later structure will also oscillate complexly to No. 1. Next week, the focus will be on the turning point of No. 1. If it is a high point, the overall situation will be short to No. 7 or No. 8, and then rebound. Until the 10th. But if the No. 1 is a low point, the overall situation is to continue to see more, and to do more decisively, but if it is a high point, my idea is to lighten up or take a short-term break, and it may break new lows, especially SSE 50 and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index may break the support of 4663, reaching around 4500, which means that there may be a drop of around 300 points, so we must pay attention to this change in rhythm.
In addition to the weights, we must also focus on the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index bull market rhythm. From the current situation, the CSI 500 exceeds the CSI 1000 index, and from CSI 500 index The time structure of CSI is the low on the 20th, after which it will continue to see long until the 10th. As long as the support of 6743 is not broken, it will continue to be long. However, the CSI 1000 index as a whole also sees a turning point on September 1 or 2. Then I saw September 27th. That is to say, if CSI 1000 breaks down 7330 as a whole, it is the continued bearishness and the formal establishment, we must pay attention to the risks. It is very likely that CSI 500 will also be brought down. If it is not for the further rise after the 3rd, the reverse push will continue to be bullish. It is the most reasonable to use this method to predict when the trend is bullish.
(Today, a total of 73 shares have a daily limit, 8 stocks on the board, and a closing rate of 78%, Shengtong shares 8 boards in 10 days)
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