TSMC never expected that the situation would become what it is today.
As the world's most advanced chip manufacturing technology, TSMC is almost arrogant. After the chip rules are modified, Liu Deyin publicly stated that the loss of Huawei orders will not affect TSMC's revenue.
TSMC pursues technological leadership and building chip production lines that are not American-technical is not the direction that TSMC considers.
In addition, Liu Deyin also said that the status quo is best, and no one can control TSMC, and said that chip demand such as 28nm is saturated, and invested US$100 billion to expand the production capacity of advanced process chips .
As a result, it entered the second half of 2022. The reality is that a 180-degree circle was coming, and all kinds of news came from TSMC.
reported that TSMC's advanced process chip orders were cut, and Qualcomm , MediaTek , etc. reduced orders, resulting in TSMC's advanced process overcapacity and even planned to shut down some EUV lithography machines.
Then ASML and Intel also confirmed this. The former said that chips with mature processes are still in short supply, and advanced process chips have overcapacity. Intel delayed the launch of 3nm chips and stated that chips with existing processes are completely sufficient.
In addition, TSMC has cut capital expenditure twice in 2022, from the highest period of US$44 billion to US$36 billion, cutting by more than 56 billion.
Due to the overcapacity of advanced process chips, TSMC also encourages employees to take more vacations, in addition to R&D personnel under 3nm.
The most important thing is that overcapacity has caused TSMC to cut supply chain orders in large quantities, up to 40% or 50% because large customers of the 3nm process temporarily cancelled orders.
In other words, TSMC is cutting production capacity and supply chain orders, and has also cut capital expenditures of more than 56 billion yuan. This series of actions also means that TSMC has really failed this time. There are three main reasons for
.
First of all, TSMC is too obsessed with chip orders for advanced processes. Liu Deyin has expressed more than once that he pursues more advanced technology and will not build chip production lines that are not American technology.
is too dependent on chips with advanced processes, and chips with only 7nm and 5nm processes contributed more than 50% of their revenue to TSMC.
At the same time, TSMC's advanced process chip orders are too single, more than 80% of them are from Meixin companies, which is very unhealthy.
So after the decline in demand for Mechina and Qualcomm cuts orders, TSMC then had a chain reaction.
Secondly, TSMC is slow to react in mature processes.
After the global chip shortage, TSMC began to blindly expand the chip production capacity of advanced processes, planning to invest US$100 billion to build a factory, mainly to build chip factories such as 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm, most of which have as many as 6. When
SMIC expanded the production capacity of mature process chips, Liu Deyin also said that the production capacity of mature process has long been oversupply.
The result is just the opposite. Chips with mature processes are still in short supply, while chips with advanced processes are overcapacity.
TSMC Wei Zhejia and others have clearly stated that new energy vehicle has brought huge opportunities to mature chips, which is greater than the opportunities brought by smartphones to advanced processes.
Under such circumstances, TSMC can only stop, reduce capital expenditures, and slow down the construction of advanced chip production lines.
Finally, TSMC's 3nm process was blocked.
TSMC 3nm chip has been postponed many times, and mass production is expected to begin at some time in the fourth quarter of this year, and it is already lagging behind Samsung in terms of time.
In addition, TSMC's 3nm process still uses FinFET process, with performance improvement of 11% and power consumption reduction of about 25%, but Samsung will officially mass-produce 3nm chips with GAA process in 2023.
According to the news released by Samsung, the GAA process's 3nm chip has a performance improvement of 21% and a power consumption reduction of 45%, which is significantly better than the TSMC's 3nm process.
plus, TSMC's 3nm process has been revealed to be cost-effective and cost-effective. Therefore, some manufacturers postponed or cut off some 3nm chips. On the one hand, they are waiting, and on the other hand, they observe Samsung's GAA process 3nm.
