text | Zinc Finance Lu Shiming
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On October 24, the official website of Tesla China showed that the price of the rear-drive version of Model 3 was reduced from 279,900 yuan to 265,900 yuan, and the price of the high-performance version was reduced from 367,900 yuan to 18,000 yuan to 349,900 yuan. The
Model Y rear-drive version has been reduced by 28,000 yuan from 316,900 yuan to 28,900 yuan, the long-range version has been reduced by 37,000 yuan to 357,900 yuan, and the high-performance version has been reduced by 20,000 yuan to 397,900 yuan.
Since this is the first price cut by Tesla after the "six consecutive increases" in China, it has attracted the attention of many consumers.
Source: Tesla China official website
And just four days ago, Tesla just released its third quarter financial report for 2022. Although the financial report data looks pretty impressive, due to bottlenecks in production and delivery, Tesla's Q3 revenue failed to meet the expectations of Wall Street for the first time in a year, and did not realize the expected stock repurchase plan. Therefore, the stock price fell by about 4% after the market closed. Compared with the cold financial report data and stock price, many consumers are paying more attention to another news. At the financial report meeting, Musk revealed that Tesla is developing a cheaper next-generation car platform, and the cost of the next-generation new car will be half of the Model 3, but the output may be higher than the total of all current products. Since entering the domestic market, Model 3 and Model Y have been reduced many times, and their landing costs have reached RMB 300,000, and their sales have increased steadily. They have dominated the sales champion of high-end electric vehicles for several years, forming a certain suppression on domestic high-end electric vehicles.
At present, domestic mid- and low-end new energy vehicles are becoming more and more popular, and many brands are targeting this field. The market space of about 150,000 yuan is likely to become a new growth point and explosion point for Chinese auto brands. If the new Tesla models with lower cost prices appear, it will undoubtedly bring huge challenges to domestic new energy vehicles.
Of course, in the long run, Tesla, as a "scrambler", will also accelerate the reshuffle of the domestic new energy vehicle industry under the catfish effect , making Chinese auto companies more competitive. Where did
01 fall? Why can it be reduced?
In fact, this is not the first time Tesla has revealed that it has made a low-priced model.
As early as Tesla's battery event day in 2020, Musk publicly stated that he would launch an entry-level electric car within three years, priced at US$25,000 (about RMB 161,800).
Recently, Tesla executive Martin Vicha once again expressed that Tesla ultimately hopes to produce a more affordable electric car at a technology conference held by Goldman Sachs.
German magazine WirtschaftsWoche once reported that the material cost and labor cost of Model 3 is about US$28,000 (about RMB 195,000). In addition to the cost of transportation, operation, as well as FSD and other software applications, the cost of producing an Tesla Model 3 car is about RMB200,000.
According to the statement that Musk's new car costs half of the Model 3, the cost of the new model is about 100,000 yuan. Tesla is already very mature in vehicle software, so the cost reduction is likely to start with the automotive hardware itself, especially in terms of power batteries and interior.
In the pure tram field, battery prices have always been a key factor affecting vehicle pricing.
battery alone accounts for almost 40% to 50% of the cost of new energy vehicle manufacturing, and sometimes even reaches 60%. If Tesla launches a model of 150,000 or 60,000 yuan, then the power battery linked to the battery life will inevitably be the first place to be "castrated".
is the interior. The interior of Tesla's existing models is extremely "simple" and can even be said to have no "interior" at all, but this does not mean there is no room for cost reduction. For example, you can purchase a large number of low-priced artificial leather , and the 15-inch large screen can also be replaced with 12-inch. As long as the overall feeling is not greatly reduced, I believe consumers can still accept it.
Model 3 Interior Source: Tesla China official website
For electric vehicle companies, it is not easy to achieve "low price". Why can Tesla significantly reduce costs? This is a very interesting question.
In terms of battery, Tesla has launched 4680, using a larger battery cell and new dry electrode coating technology.
Some industry insiders say that if all the potential efficiency of the new battery can be achieved, the manufacturing cost of the Model Y4680 battery pack will drop to $5,000 to $5,500 (about 35,000 to 38,000 yuan), about half of the cost of the 2,170 battery. In addition to batteries,
has formed a large-scale production system and a direct sales model that avoids the circulation costs of middlemen, and is also the confidence that Tesla can launch low-priced models.
In the past two years, Tesla has continuously optimized the vehicle design in its car manufacturing process to simplify production as much as possible, including the introduction of factories designed specifically for the production of electric vehicles, which has also played a very important role in reducing costs. I believe that with the improvement of production efficiency of Tesla's Shanghai factory and Berlin factory in Germany, large-scale production will inevitably reduce production costs.
At the same time, since the logistics costs and material procurement costs of vehicles are all local, the transportation costs will be greatly reduced.
The combination of multiple factors has reduced the production cost per vehicle of Tesla from US$84,000 in 2017 to US$36,000 today.
02 Tesla cuts its price, is it beaten for domestic cars?
Tesla launches low-priced models, and consumers may be looking forward to it. But for domestic new energy vehicle companies, it is a "headache". Tesla's previous few price cuts have had a certain impact on the operations of domestic new energy vehicle companies.
has been lowered many times since Tesla achieved localized production in China.
On the first day of 2021, Tesla announced that it would officially start selling the domestic Model Y, and the price was directly reduced by 148,100 yuan. As soon as the news came out, Tesla was "crazyly robbed" by consumers. Not only did Tesla's official website be squeezed and "collapse", but stores across the country were also crowded.
Model Y Source: Tesla China official website
Two days later, Tesla announced that the standard battery life upgraded version of Model 3 manufactured in Chinese factories will be reduced from the previous price of 355,800 yuan to 323,800 yuan. Combined with the policy of exempting purchase tax and new energy subsidies, the final price is expected to drop to 299,050 yuan. After several rounds of official price cuts in
, the domestic sales data of Tesla Model 3 and Model Y have greatly improved, and its sales ranking has remained at the top for a long time.
Before fuel vehicles completely withdraw from the stage of history, the demand for new energy vehicles was limited. Through multiple rounds of price cuts and combined with brand attractiveness, Tesla has taken away the market share of domestic new energy vehicle companies that originally focused on high-end models.
Among them, Wei Xiaoli, the three new forces brothers, was most obviously affected. For example, in early 2021, after Tesla announced a major price cut, someone online revealed that NIO was tragically refunded on a large scale.
At present, new domestic car-making forces generally suffer serious losses. The reason why capital in the primary and secondary markets persists is because these forces still have stories to tell, but no matter where the story goes, sales are the core of the whole text. However, after Tesla lowered its price, the core of the story of this new force is obviously not that strong.
Of course, there are many voices that independent brands can compete with bayonets on prices, but this is mostly the point put forward by consumers who don’t know much about the new energy vehicle market. Tesla has been declining, but domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers cannot.
According to Tesla's 2022 semi-annual report, its gross profit margin for automobile business is as high as 27.8%, which is far higher than traditional fuel vehicles and other new energy vehicle manufacturers. For NIO, its gross profit margin is only 13.8%, half of Tesla's, and , Xiaopeng is even lower, only 11.55%. Although the ideal gross profit margin reaches 22.09%, its sales are bleak and its profits are nowhere to be achieved.
The new round of price cuts on October 24 will undoubtedly force some users who have turned to Wei Xiaoli to return to Tesla's camp.
In short, the impact of Tesla's price cut on the high-end market of domestic new energy vehicles is visible, but this is only a high-end market, and it is just a price cut. If Tesla launches low-priced models, it will inevitably bring greater impact and challenges to the domestic mid- and low-end new energy market within a certain period of time.
03 Who will become the biggest "victim"?
As pure electric vehicle technology becomes more and more mature, the pattern of "two-end squeezing" in the high-end and low-end markets of new energy vehicles is being broken, and the development trend is accelerating from the "dumbbell-shaped" to the "spindle-shaped" structure. The new energy vehicle market in the price range of
html of 1.15 million yuan to 200,000 yuan will become a new growth point and explosion point for Chinese auto brands, which has become a consensus in the entire industry.A relatively full proof is that after entering 2022, Wei Xiaoli's sales performance is often surpassed by "cost-performance" car companies such as Nezha and Leapmotor, and mid- and low-end models are increasingly becoming the sales headquarter in the new energy vehicle market.
Source: Finance Network Auto
After Wei Xiaoli made a fortune in the high-end luxury electric vehicle market and established a good reputation, it also began to make arrangements in the mid- and low-end markets.
, for example, , NIO has confirmed that it will launch a second brand, with the internal project code name "Alps", and the pricing range is 200,000 to 300,000 yuan. By August this year, NIO was revealed to launch its third brand, with the internal code name "Firefly Plan". According to relevant reports, NIO's third brand targets a mid-to-low-end model market with a price range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan.
From this perspective of market demand, it is inevitable that Tesla will launch low-priced models.
If Tesla wants to gain lasting influence in the global market and participate in shaping future technological trends, it must produce a product portfolio covering a larger audience and obtain sufficient revenue and market share.
has no low-end products, which is equivalent to giving up a whole market. Although the gross profit of low-end cars is not high, it cannot withstand the large market size. It can also bring considerable profits to car companies under the model of small profits but quick turnover. On the contrary, if Tesla does not launch mid- and low-end models, it will gradually become marginalized as the market develops.
Of course, Tesla’s launch of low-priced models is also inseparable from its driverless taxi business layout. The driverless taxi business is regarded by Tesla as one of the most core businesses in the next few years, and taxis need to have the characteristics of "not high maintenance costs". Therefore, before the autonomous driving rental service is launched, Tesla must also produce cheaper models.
Roadster Source: Tesla China official website
No matter what the reason is, it is only a matter of time before Tesla launches a low-priced car. When Tesla appears for 150,000 yuan, it will surely cause a new round of inverter .
When the new car has sufficient price advantage, Tesla's new car with "pricing rights" will also force other domestic new energy vehicle companies to follow suit. But can new car companies withstand Tesla's low cost, supply chain advantages, and price reduction space?
Wei Xiaoli, Naweiling and other new forces are difficult to judge, but as one of Tesla's current biggest competitors, BYD is relatively not very panic.
In the first half of this year, BYD surpassed Tesla for the first time with sales of 640,000 vehicles, becoming the world's first new energy vehicle sales, with an average vehicle price of 162,000 yuan. With the big sales of these mid- and low-priced models, BYD has achieved a profit of over 3 billion yuan in half a year, a year-on-year increase of more than triple, and the total amount is higher than the whole year last year.
Although BYD has the strength to compete with Tesla, it must not be taken lightly. All other independent brands should conduct research and judgment from multiple aspects and dimensions, and come up with corresponding strategies and implemented products as soon as possible to fully respond to the challenges brought by Tesla's low-priced models.
