View the direction of the industry through national policies, industry changes through industrial direction, and opportunities through industry changes!
What is the future development of traditional fuel vehicles?
Where should traditional fuel vehicles go?
Still remember that last year, many European and American car companies released the "Fuel Car Stop Sales Schedule" one after another. At that time, countless people sneered at it and looked at it, and felt it was ridiculous. However, to this day, some domestic car company , BYD, which has completely stopped production of fuel vehicles, and it is also BYD. It has completed sales of more than 200,000 new energy vehicles in September. The data is very eye-catching. Looking back now, do you still feel that the "Fuel Car Stop Sales Schedule" is ridiculous?
In my opinion, the highlight of the fuel vehicle has passed, and it is no longer as glorious as 19 years and the past. However, all things in the world have risen and fallen, and the victory and decline are even more ancient principles. The decline of fuel vehicles is the alternation of the victory of new energy vehicles. Although the glory of fuel vehicles is no longer restored, it will not fall a thousand feet, just like a piece of paper gliding and slowly falling down. Why has the changes so great in recent years?
is a change in customer needs. Today's customers are no longer satisfied with the needs of vehicles for transportation, but are the interweaving of the comprehensive needs of people, cars and life. They are also the driving experience, intelligence, appearance, interior, mechanical chassis quality and maintenance costs of new energy vehicles are not weaker than those of fuel vehicles;
At the same time, compared with the inherent disadvantages of fuel vehicles, such as value retention rate and energy replenishment, they are gradually no longer disadvantages. Why do you say so?
On the one hand, the value retention rate of new energy vehicles is slowly increasing, and it is far from comparable price of bargains a few years ago. However, what is the value retention rate? The deep meaning of the value retention rate refers to the problem of the speed of vehicle circulation and transactions. As the overall sales volume and ownership of new energy vehicles continue to increase, the value retention rate will also rise slowly without constraints. Of course, some people refute why the value retention rate of different brands is very different. In fact, it is caused by the difference in sales volume and ownership of different brands. At the same time, the reason that cannot be ignored is the connection between the reputation quality of vehicles of each brand and whether it can meet the needs of customers. However, the overall value retention rate of new energy vehicles is already rising slowly, which is an objective fact;
On the other hand, compared with the convenient driving of fuel vehicles, with the continuous improvement of comprehensive energy replenishment technologies and facilities such as battery technology innovation, high-voltage fast charging and battery swap, the convenience of driving of new energy vehicles is also gradually improving;
Therefore, in my opinion, the various advantages that fuel vehicles once had have have have have been gradually caught up by new energy vehicles. I predict that sales will most likely be reversed in the next five years. At that time, what are the advantages of fuel vehicles competing with them?
What is the future of new energy development with such rapid development?
The new energy vehicle industry has been guided and supported at the beginning to the full and free competition of the market in the current market. According to the current sales trend and development momentum, it is very likely that the national goal of new energy vehicle sales and penetration rate will be completed ahead of schedule this year; however, it is also a rapid development of new energy vehicles beyond expectations. There are not many remaining tickets left for various car manufacturers. The time window is getting shorter and shorter, and the reshuffle rate of new energy vehicle companies will be accelerated. I predict that this time window will be up to 2 years, with a minimum sales threshold of 200,000 units, and it can also be based on the sustainable development of the future. Therefore, how to do everything possible to increase delivery and sales within a unit time, and occupy market share is the top priority of all auto companies.
Of course, the new car sector of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles has ended here. Next, I will talk about used cars.
The development of used cars in China is a bloody and tears history of people's miserable life and miserable misery. For traditional fuel used cars, the lack of national policies in the past and the continued boom of the new car market have caused the complete marketization and full disorderly development of the used car industry. This is also the root cause of the inability to scale, standardize and unified development of the used car industry, and it also indirectly leads to consumers' avoidance.
However, all the situations at this stage have been greatly improved. The promulgation and gradual implementation of the new national policies are also promoting the standardized and rapid development of second-hand cars in China, the survival of the fittest in the market environment, and the gradual increase in the industry threshold all indicate that the second-hand car industry will enter the stage of rapid development of regularization, standardization and scale.
is currently a relatively blank in China. This field has high risks and great opportunities. In addition, car companies should develop together with the used car business. With the benefit of a blank, they can have the opportunity to start from the used car field to jointly maintain the value of the brand, assist in the sales of new cars and the continuous exploration of customer value, and create a dual contribution of value and profit in the field that is not new cars;
Since this is the case, what are the pain points of new energy used cars?
I believe that there are six business pain points at this stage:
First is: the small amount of inventory and circulating vehicles, which is specifically manifested as the sales scale of new cars is insufficient and less than the year when used cars are precipitated;
Second is: the difficulty of vehicle detection. Compared with fuel vehicles, the core of the detection of new energy vehicles lies in the detection of the three-electric system, and this field is still in a field with high technical barriers. Except for manufacturers, other third parties have no effective methods;
Third is: the price system of used cars is disordered. Compared with fuel vehicles, there is not much transaction data for new energy used cars for reference, and it depends to a great extent on individual subjective judgment and pricing, without scientific and big data reference basis. ;
The fourth is: the circulation channel system is sparse and fragile. Most market car dealers are in a wait-and-see or conservative attitude towards new energy used cars. A very small number of car dealers only make very popular quasi-new used cars, and there are still quite a risk;
The fifth is: the audience is narrow and single, and for the new energy used car purchase group, most customers start from the purchase point of the purchase of new cars because the waiting period for a long time is that they fail to pick up the car in time, and mainly focus on quasi-new used cars;
The sixth is: the relevant vehicle rights are lacking, and the first car owner's rights and interests of many brands cannot be transferred to the second car owner;
However, the above is the viewpoint of the first part of this topic, to be continued. Please correct and communicate!
