chip is a high-tech product. Especially high-end chips, it is very difficult for any country to manufacture them. It is no exaggeration to say that it is ten times, a hundred times, a thousand times, or even ten thousand times more difficult than the ancient times when Tang Monk went to the West to learn Buddhist scriptures.
is currently the world's leading company in the field of chips and , mainly TSMC in Taiwan and and Samsung in South Korea. TSMC announced the mass production of 3nm chips two days ago, and the company is working hard to develop 2nm chips. Many people think that 2nm will be the ceiling level, and it is impossible to break through. In addition, Samsung has achieved 3nm mass production as early as June 2022, which is about half a year earlier than TSMC in this achievement. 3nm is an advanced process, but our country's current chip level is still in the 28nm mature process stage, and 7nm mass production has not yet been reached. The 7nm mass production yield is too low. Through comparison, we will know how big the gap is between us and others, which is equivalent to a Pacific in the middle.
chip
Many people say that the advanced process is currently far behind others, so they are making great efforts in the mature process and grabbing the market share of the mature process . After all, the mature process market accounts for 80%, so this can stop it. TSMC's back road, this view has some truth, I don't know whether it is correct or not. Our SMIC is currently trying to take this road, but 20% of the market for advanced processes has taken away 80% of the profits. After making a lot of high profits, it will then come back to support its own R&D department to make the next generation of chips, forming a healthy development chain. This advanced process chip of 7nm and above requires an EUV lithography machine. This thing is very expensive and is embargoed by Western countries. If you have money, it will be useless no matter how much you pay. They will not sell it to you, which is very annoying. In addition, Japan has a monopoly on advanced photoresist , so it is unlikely that Japan will fully help us.
Advanced photolithography machine
Advanced process chip development, the roads outside are almost blocked, so you can only rely on yourself. This development process will be very difficult and long.
SMIC daily line
SMIC daily analysis:
1, currently back to the neckline support, is trading sideways, is oscillating,
2, the black line is the rebound pressure line, after which it is possible for to reverse , but the rebound will fall in 3 waves,
3, the neckline is currently guarding the low point of the previous wave. After rebounding and breaking through the neckline with heavy volume, an head and shoulders will be formed to top the stage head. The head area will be all locked up, and there will be a sharp decline, and then a new bottom will be rebuilt.
4, there is joy in sadness. The path SMIC is taking now will succeed with the support of the country, its own efforts, and the expectations of the people. So I boldly guess that it will be a day in 3 years, 5 years, and 7 years.
SMIC
Conclusion: Buy close to the low point of the previous wave, stop loss about 5% below the neckline, and then pay close attention to the trend. Buy once when it goes down about 7%, and it can be divided into 2-3 times when going down. Don’t do it too many times. Use extra money to operate. Don’t use to leverage . Just treat it as a value investment and confidence investment in a chip company with potential and future. The rewards will surely come in the form of springs in a few years' time.
